New York Rangers: Chris Kreider and the upcoming decision

The Kreider years

In seven seasons on Broadway, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kreider has scored 133 goals with 138 assists for 271 points in 460 regular season games.  His production has been a steady 20 goals and 45 points in his six full season, averaging .59 points per game.  He has also scored 23 goals and 37 points in 77 playoff games.  The power forward’s value is not just in putting up points, he has a career plus/minus of +55 with a positive rating in every season except one since becoming a regular.

Kreider’s two-way game has been a valuable asset more apparent during the past two seasons with a much younger Ranger supporting cast.  Despite a very complete game the burning questions among Ranger fans and management is have we seen the best of Chris Kreider? When will he have the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for?  Those two questions are on Gorton’s mind as he looks over his team’s blueprint and ponders the forecast of future contract expenditures.

It’s no secret with the recent free agent signings of former Rangers Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia for seven years at $7M per season and Mats Zuccarello in Minnesota for five years at $6 million per season, that Kreider views his value in the seven year range in excess of $7 million per season.  Kreider turns 29 years old this April and his age and inconsistency are of concern.

The Rangers remain in no rush to make their decision on Kreider.   They could wait until the 2020 trade deadline to deal him but perhaps the team wants to avoid the in-season drama for a third consecutive year.  Trading him before the season gives a contending team a full season which should increase the return back to the Rangers in contrast to a deadline rental.  In terms of a return the Rangers should be able to land a first-round draft pick or key prospect and a conditional draft pick from a contender as the Rangers did with the Hayes and Rick Nash trades.

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 21: New York Rangers Left Wing Chris Kreider (20) takes the puck out from behind the net during the third period of a regular season NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the New York Rangers on October 21, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by David Hahn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The case to extend Kreider

Many feel that Kreider could be the next Ranger to wear the captain’s “C” on his uniform since he brings so much to the lineup and locker room for a young team without a clear-cut leader in that role. Kreider has shown consistent ability in driving results of the line he is featured on.  He could also play a role to help shoulder the load as Chytil transitions as the team’s second-line center.

As much as Kreider has taken considerable heat over his disappearing acts during past seasons, much of that heat comes from the Rangers lack of of consistent scoring.   With Panarin and the potential of Kaako and Kravtsov, the new offensive makeup may take the pressure and spotlight off Kreider.   Should one of the young guns need to go down for some seasoning, or as a hedge against injury, having seven top-six forwards can be worthwhile luxury to carry.

The key that determines how long Kreider stays in New York is realistically up to him.  While it’s difficult to imagine Kreider offering the Rangers a term discount it appears that is the only palatable scenario for the Rangers.  All spending aside this is clearly a term of contract issue and this clearly rests with Kreider’s camp.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 17: Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates his second period goal against the Chicago Blackhawks at Madison Square Garden on January 17, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

The case for trading Kreider

Kreider enters the final year of a four year contract that pays him $4.625 million per season.  The cap hit this year is attractive for a player of his caliber. He’s undoubtedly in line for a raise and with the Hayes and Zuccarello contracts there seems a market for the long term deal that Kreider is seeking.

There are comparable contracts around the league such as Brad Marchand and Cam Atkinson that have proven to be very cost effective for their respective teams.  At the same time there are the contracts of Bobby Ryan, Ryan Callahan, James Neal and Milan Lucic that were based upon what the players did rather than what those players actually would produce after receiving them.

While $7 million per year doesn’t necessarily break the Rangers bank, the term of the deal just doesn’t align with the Rangers rebuild.  It seems unlikely for the team to invest in a player who is nearing 30 who has yet to hit 30 goals or 60 points in a season.  There are few examples of players improving  production after age 30.

To say that Kreider’s fitness and physical condition make him an exception to the over 30  rule, you must consider that Kreider plays a hard physical game and with that has a higher propensity for injury.  Remember the career of Rick Nash and how quickly his power game shifted to the perimeter as he battled injuries and concussions in his early thirties. Fortunately for the Rangers they traded Nash before concussions ultimately forced early retirement.

The prospect of a Kreider extension is not the net present value of the contract but the residual value of the cap hit in outlying years. The Rangers will have to deal with the extension of Zibanejad, as well as to extend their up and coming players Adam Fox, Kravstov, Kaako, Chytil and others will be coming off their entry level contracts after the 2022 season.   Looking further to 2024, it’s difficult to envision the Rangers tying up $20 million in two left wingers (Panarin and Kreider) both of whom will be in their mid-thirties.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 27: Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates his goal at 12:06 of the third period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Madison Square Garden on December 27, 2018 in New York City. The Blue Jackets defeated the Rangers 3-2 in overtime. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Life after Kreider

Trading Kreider will clearly have an impact on the lineup in the short term.  It creates some risk in reliance upon unproven players and may force a trade down the road for cost effective replacement.  The Rangers have done well to develop their farm system beyond Kaako and Kravstov, but they have a few years before Jake Elmer, Morgan Barron and others will be ready. There are many who believe Brendan Lemieux can one day carry a top six forward bag.  It’s important to also consider the dimension of pick or prospect that trading Kreider may bring back.

Teams who have shown interest in Kreider over the past year are the Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche.  Reportedly, the Rangers were close to sending Kreider to Colorado this past June for the 16th overall pick in the 2019 Draft.  The players who the Rangers will target in return for Kreider could be among Nashville’s Eeli Tovanen, Winnipeg’s Kristian Vesalainen, Colorado’s Martin Kaut or Shane Bowers, or Boston’s Trent Frederic.  All these prospects are a year or two away which is commensurate with Gorton’s overall plan and timeline.

The biggest variable in this decision is where the Rangers are currently.   They clearly are still building and will be cycling contracts out over the next two seasons.  During that time their young prospect pool will continue to develop.  Gorton will have both cap flexibility and a very deep group of outstanding prospects (particularly defensemen and goaltenders).  These assets may help the Rangers land emerging or established players down the road.

TORONTO, ON – DECEMBER 22: Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers skates against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 22, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Rangers 5-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

In conclusion

In conclusion, the Rangers will trade Kreider before the season begins to one of the aforementioned teams for a package that brings a top prospect and a conditional pick back to New York. The only circumstance that keeps Kreider with the Rangers is if he signs a team-friendly  shorter term deal than what he’s reportedly seeking.  While possible, the chances of it actually happening are very slim, especially considering how close the Rangers came to trading him in late June.

The Rangers have made it clear that a season of 22 goals and 50 points is not worth a seven year contract at $7 million per season.  The salary level and term is a realistic one for Kreider, but it’s something that just doesn’t make sense for the Rangers.   There will be a team that will make Kreider that offer, it just won’t be the Rangers.

The bottom line throughout this rebuild is that the Rangers were clear that they could not afford to be emotional and nostalgic.  They made it clear that fan favorites would be leaving and all signs point to Kreider being next.  Gorton has not strayed from his plan with his rebuilding of the Rangers and patience is still the order of the day.