Five reasons why 2019-20 will be a rebuilding year

While the recent additions have fired up the fanbase and raised hopes for playoff success, the coming season should be seen as the final year of the “rebuild” for the New York Rangers.

Despite the arrivals of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba, there are simply too many question marks facing the New York Rangers this season to reasonably expect them to be a playoff contender. It would be wise to lower expectations, look at the season as the last of the rebuild and be content with any success the team achieves in the meantime.

While we can expect excellence from Panarin, Trouba and Mika Zibanejad those three players are the only on the roster without question marks next to their names. As much as Ranger fans are hopeful, in reality it is tough to expect this team to improve from the sixth worst team in the league to the top four in the Metropolitan Division.

Here are five reasons (in no particular order) we should be content with a season of progress and not be disappointed if they fall short of the postseason.

Reason 1: The kids

Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Adam Fox, Libor Hajek.  Four new faces expected to have a huge impact on the New York Rangers this season.  Between them, they have five NHL games under their belt and they were all belong to Hajek.   Yet, these four rookies could make up one fifth of the Blueshirts starting lineup.

Throw in sophomores Filip Chytil, Brett Howden, Brendan Lemieux and  Lias Andersson and 40% of the starting lineup will have a year or less experience as pros. That is a young lineup.

We can all hope that Kaapo Kakko will channel the rookie seasons of Teemu Selanne (76-56-132) and Patrik Laine (36-28-64), but will anyone be disappointed if he ends up like Mikko Rantanen (20-18-38)?

19-year old Vitali Kravtsov looks like he will be a star, but there will be growing pains.  Nikita Kucherov was 9-9-18 in his rookie season as a 20-year old.  Will anyone be disappointed if he emulates Kucherov’s career path?

To expect one third of the Rangers defense to be manned by two 21-year olds without being accompanied by growing pains and rookie mistakes is asking an awful lot of Hajek and Fox.  Add a couple of injuries and Yegor Rykov and Ryan Lindgren will also be in the rotation.

Brent Burns is the finest offensive blueliner in the NHL.  When he was 21 years old he scored seven goals and added 18 assists.  That was his third season in the NHL.  He didn’t hit double figures in his goal scoring until he was 22.    While no one is saying that Adam Fox will be the next Brent Burns, his reputation as an offensive wizard raises expectations. .

Patience is the operative word when it comes to this youthful lineup.

Reason 2: The goaltenders

The Rangers have been lucky.  For over a decade goaltending was never a question mark.  Pencil in Henrik Lundqvist and all was well. For the first time since 2004-05, there are question marks surrounding the Rangers and their netminding.  Of course, most of the questions are about an aging Henrik Lundqvist and his ability to rebound from what he acknowledged was his poorest season.

Alexandar Georgiev proved to be a worthy backup, actually winning the starting job at the end of the season, but with only 43 NHL games on his resume, he is still no sure thing. When the Bulgarian was good, he was very, very good.  But Georgiev also had his share of rocky starts, often victimized by the team’s shaky defense.

While everyone points to his brilliant 55 save performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, remember that he allowed five or more goals in seven starts.  Consider this, Henrik Lundqvist allowed five or more goals six times in 2018-19, but in 52 games versus the 33 games Georgiev appeared in.

A victim of overuse by Coach David Quinn, you can be sure that Lundqvist will have a reduced workload.  Georgiev will be under pressure to perform as Lundqvist’s equal, knowing that Igor Shesterkin is lurking in Hartford.

Knowing Henrik Lundqvist’s competitive fire, he will have a rebound year and will play similarly to his start last season.  A commitment to a reduced workload will help, but if he falters, look out.

Reason 4: The defense

The defense has been Achilles heel of the Rangers ever since the departure of Ryan McDonagh.  The addition of Jacob Trouba will elevate the defense immediately, but his surrounding cast of blueliners all have question marks.

Brady Skjei has had two consecutive disappointing seasons.  He has been projected as Trouba’s partner on the top pair.  With some international experience as teammates, will a Trouba-Skjei pairing actually work and will that lead to a Skjei rebound and justify the longterm commitment the team made to him last summer?

Tony  DeAngelo made great strides under David Quinn last season.  While there was never any doubt in his offensive toolkit, his growth was in maturity.  Will that progress continue and will DeAngelo be the power play quarterback that was envisioned  when he was a Tampa first round draft pick?

Marc Staal could be the greatest beneficiary of the new defense corps if he is actually going to play reduced minutes as a third pair, veteran defenseman.  Thrust into the fryng pan last season, Staal played too many tough minutes on the top pairing and it showed in his stats. If Skjei doesn’t work as Trouba’s partner don’t be surprised if Staal finds himself again on the first pairing, playing heavy minutes.  That could be a worst case scenario for the Blueshirts.

As mentioned earlier, the Rangers appear to be ready to begin the season with Libor Hajek and Adam Fox as regulars on the blueline. Will the two rookies  stay away from dumb mistakes and make the defense a strength as opposed to a weakness?

Unless he is buried in the minor leagues, the team will again carry Brendan Smith as a seventh defenseman and if he finds himself playing a lot, that could be a signal that the defense has regressed.

The defense is the most important piece of the Blueshirts puzzle and while it will be better, how good will it be?  Of all of the challenges facing this young team, team defense may be the biggest question mark facing the 2019-20 Rangers.

Reason 5: The competition

The biggest roadblock to the playoffs may be totally out of the Rangers’ control.  While the team has made great strides, their Metropolitan Division competitors have not been idle.  The road to the postseason will be a difficult one for all of the teams in the Division.

The Rangers finished seventh in the Division last season and will need to leapfrog as many as three teams to even hope for a wildcard spot.

Of the Metropolitan Divsion teams that finished ahead of the Rangers, Columbus is the only team that was weakened considerably by free agency.  Washington and Pittsburgh will be in the thick of things again with their championship cores intact. Carolina will likely build on their playoff success.  The Islanders are weakened in goal, but their league leading defense will be back.

Of the teams that missed the playoffs, the Flyers will be better with Kevin Hayes, but  with Alain Vigneault at the helm they are a question mark.   The Devils were the only team that finished with a worse record than the Rangers.  If Nikita Gusev is everything he is made out to be and with the addition of Jack Hughes and P.K. Subban and a healthy Taylor Hall, the Devils will be the most improved team in the Division.

Even the competition for the wild card has gotten more difficult.  Tampa, Boston and Toronto figure to be the class of the Atlantic Division. The addition of Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida has strengthened those perennial also-rans and this could be year that Buffalo actually puts it all together.

When you look at the entire Eastern Conference, the only teams one can confidently predict the Rangers finishing ahead of are Ottawa and Detroit.  The question is whether they are improved enough to pass Philadelphia, Florida, Montreal and Columbus and sneak into a wild card spot.

So, what can we reasonable expect from the 201-20 New York Rangers?

How will it end?

While this may sound like a pessimistic look at the 2019-20 New York Rangers, that is not the intention.  The reality is that there is no way to anticipate what the season will bring, considering all of the variables facing the team.

With a full season behind the bench, David Quinn will be a better coach.  His reputation as a teacher and motivator will be even more important this year.  He has to resist the temptation to succumb to unexpected success.

One thing is certain. This will be a fun team to watch.  The offense should be the best since the years the team was a perennial Cup contender.   The defense will be a roller coaster ride, and Ranger fans should thrill in the highs and be ready for the lows.

Is it possible that the team will pull as St. Louis Blues type of miracle and find itself in time to make a playoff run?  Absolutely.  Is it likely?  Probably not.

That means another season of selling off assets at the trade deadline, but that also means another year of numerous draft picks and hope for the future.  The Rangers won’t be a bottom feeder, but they will have another shot at the draft lottery.

It’s far better to go into this season with reasonable expectations so we can thrill to unexpected victories and individual triumphs.  The New York Rangers on a path to great success, it’s just a matter of when they get there.