Why a lottery pick this season is not a bad thing
The buzz about the 2020 NHL Entry Draft is that it could be the best in years. While the much improved New York Rangers may contend for a playoff spot this season, it could be a good thing if they don’t make the cut.
A return to playoff contention is the hope of many fans of the New York Rangers. Not so fast. One more year with a lottery pick may be a good strategy. The class eligible for the June draft is supposed to be one of the best in hockey history.
As the Rangers continue their long-term planning, one bit of news that came out is that they expect Chris Kreider to come to training camp without a contract extension and to play this season on the verge of free agency. There has also been no talk of any contract conversations with the team’s other two pending UFA’s Vladislav Namestnikov and Jesper Fast.
Knowing the strength and depth of the 2020 Draft, you can bet that Jeff Gorton is hoping that Kreider will play well enough to warrant a first round pick in exchange at the deadline, even if it isn’t lottery-eligible. One more year of high quality draft picks and the Rangers prospect pool will be fully restored and in great shape for another run of playoff seasons.
There is no doubt that Ranger fans will be frustrated if Gorton deals away assets like Kreider at the deadline while the Rangers are within striking distance of a playoff spot. Realistically, it’s the smart move.
How does the 2020 draft compare?
Hockey observers knew the 2020 draft class would be strong, but now many believe it will one of the strongest in NHL history, similar to the 2015 Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel draft year.
Of the 30 players taken in the first round that year, 29 have seen NHL action. The only player who hasn’t is Washington top goalie prospect Ilya Samsanov who stayed longer in the KHL and just came to North America last season.
22 of the 30 are solid NHL players who have regular spots in their rosters. Of the eight remaining, all are still strong prospects playing in the AHL. Three of them have been hampered by injuries.
The 2015 had some late first round gems outside of the lottery including Kyle Connor at #17, Thomas Chabot at #18, Colin White at #21, Brock Boeser at #23, Travis Konecny at #24, Jack Roslovic at #25 and Anthony Beauvillier at #28.
The 2014 draft produced Travis Sanheim at #17, Alex Tuch at #18, Nick Schmaltz at #20 and David Pastrnak at #25.
In terms of impact players taken after the lottery picks in 2013 there were Anthony Mantha at #20, Andre Burakovsky at #23 and Shea Theodore at #26.
More recently, in the three seasons since the 2016 draft, five players taken out of the top 16 have made it as regulars in the NHL and that includes Filip Chytil and Brett Howden.
So, how good is the 2020 draft?
The 2020 draft
Next June’s draft is really weighted with players from Canadian Junior hockey. The consensus top pick is Alexis Lafreniere, a left wing for Rimouski Oceanic. In his rookie year in the QMJHL he finished ninth in the league in scoring, two points behind Detroit’s 2018 sixth overall pick, Filip Zadina. He was then selected the top rookie in all of Canadian junior hockey over Zadina and Andrei Svechnikov who went second overall in the 2018 draft to Carolina.
Last season he finished third in the league in scoring with 37 goals and 105 points in 61 games. Wayne Gretzky compared him to Gilbert Perrault and the word is he is the best player to be draft-eligible since Connor McDavid.
But the draft is more than Lafreniere. According to Craig Button of TSN, there are no less than six players who could potentially go first overall. Forward Hendrix Lapierre led all scorers in assists with eight in five games at the recent Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He has been likened to Patrice Bergeron.
There’s been a lot of buzz about center Quinton Byfield. He’s huge. Although he is still two days away from his 17th birthday and he is already 6’4″, 214 pounds. He’s been called a Evgeni Malkin clone. .
Cole Perfetti of the Saginaw Spirit is considered the best pure goal scorer in the group, similar to recent draftee Cole Caulfield. He led all scorers at this summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup with eight goals and 12 points in five games.
The best European skater is considered to be Lucas Raymond of Sweden. He can play either wing and Button called him another Mitch Marner. Raymond scored the gold medal winning overtime goal for Sweden in the WJC U18 tournament and is the linemate of Ranger draft pick Karl Henriksson.
There is one goaltender who could go very high in the draft. Russian netminder Yaroslav Askarov has been called the second coming of Carey Price who in 2005 was the last netminder to be selected in the top ten of the draft. He starred for the gold medal team at this summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup, allowing only five goals in four games. Recent accolades have called him potentially the best Russian goalie of all time.
The best Finnish prospect is center Anton Lundell. He had 19 points in 38 games for HIFK in Liiga and is considered the best two-way player available.
Swedish center Alexander Holtz has been a goal scoring machine at whatever level he plays. Last season in the Swedish U20 league he had 30 goals in 38 games and added 11 more in 18 games for the Swedish National U18 junior team.
Marco Rossi is an Austrian center playing for the Ottawa 67’s in the OHL. After leading a Swiss U20 league in scoring, he came over to North America and notched 29 goals and 65 points in 53 games.
Forward Dylan Holloway was a prolific scorer in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and is committed to attend the University of Wisconsin where he will be a teammate of K’Andre Miller.
You may have noticed that none of these ten players is a defenseman. That’s how deep this draft is. Here are some defensemen who look to be top picks as well:
- Kaiden Guhle – A big defenseman going into his second season for the Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL.
- Justin Barron – A right handed shooter going into his third season in the QMJHL. .
- Jamie Drysdale – A bit on the smaller side, Drysdale is starting his second season with the Erie Otters where he had 40 points in 63 games.
- Braden Schneider – Schneider is more of a shut-down defenseman, in his third season in the WHL with the Brandon Wheat Kings.
- Jake Sanderson – He plays the US National Development Team and with so many players leaving in the 2019 draft, he will get a chance to shine.
- Tyler Kleven – Kleven is a teammate of Jake Sanderson, same goes for him at the USNTP.
- Helge Grans– A Swedish defenseman who looks to make the leap to the SHL this season.
- Jérémie Poirier – A defensemen who opened some eyes with his play in the QMJHL last season.
Other forwards worth keeping an eye on include:
- Kasper Simontaival – One of the top scorers for Finland’s U18 national team, he should be playing for Tappara in Liiga this season.
- Ryder Rolston – Rolston was a solid winger on the US National Development team who will get a chance to play more with the recent departures.
- Justin Sourdif – This center was the fourth leading scorer for the Vancouver Giants in his first season as a 16 year old. He was tied for third in scoring on the Canadian team at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup.
- Seth Jarvis – A smaller right wing who had a decent first season with Portland in the WHL.
- Connor Zary – Going into his second season in the WHL, the center was one of the top scorers on the Kamloops Blazers and was a point-a-game player at the WJC U18 tournament.
- Jean-Luc Foudy -He led all rookies in assists in his first season in the OHL. The center played at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and impressed with two goals and four points. He’s considered an elite passer and should improve in his second season in Windsor.
- Tim Stützle – He was one of the best players for Germany at the WJC U18 tournament and will play for Adler Mannheim in the top league in Germany. He’ll be a teammate of Detroit’s top pick, Moritz Seider.
- Jacob Perreault – The son of former NHLer Yanic Perrault, he was a top scorer for the Sarnia Sting of the OHL. He’s a center with decent size.
As you can see, it looks like the 2020 talent pool will be deep and if the Rangers can go into the draft with a lottery pick and at least one more first rounder, they could end up with a couple sure fire NHL prospects. As 2019-20 is really another rebuilding year, it’s not a bad thing to hope for.
The price will be another season of uncertainty for players like Kreider, Namestnikov and Fast as they wait for the trade deadline. It’s never a good thing to have players waiting to be traded, but with the development track of the team, this should be the last year that the Rangers will be sellers at the deadline. With all of these assets in the pipeline, they are well positioned to be buyers in the future.
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