The New York Rangers have decided to load up on the top line putting Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin together. Is pairing their two best players the right strategy?
So far, when the Zibanejad-Panarin-Buchnevich line is clicking it is magic, but when it isn’t the New York Rangers have been virtually impotent on offense. There is an argument to be made for splitting up their two best players and that it could have a positive effect on the rest of the lineup.
First off, let’s make this clear. This is not a discussion about moving Kaapo Kakko up to the first line. The Rangers could do that and face the same issues that they are having already this season. It is also not swapping Kreider and Buchnevich which is what David Quinn did against the Capitals. The issue is splitting up Zibanejad and Panarin.
The rapture over the ZIbanejad/Panarin combination may be undeserved. The pair teamed with Buchnevich has played 48 minutes at even strength in the first five games. The opposition has had more shots, more scoring chances and more high danger scoring chances. The only thing the trio has done positively is outscore the opposition three goals to two. The same goes for the 13 minutes the pair has played with Kreider, though their possesson numbers go up with Kreider on the line.
Statistically, Panarin has three goals and two assists so far this season. Two of Panarin’s goals have come on the power play with the two assists at even strength. Panarin has traditionally scored the vast majority of his goals at even strength. Prior to this season he had scored 86 goals 5v5 and 30 on the power play. That’s not happening this season.
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Zibanejad tends to score on the power play and set up goals at even strength. In the last two years with the Blueshirts, he has scored 45% of his goals on the power play, but only 30% of his assists have come with the man advantage. This season, he has gotten 50% of his goals on the power play, but only a third of his assists have come at even strength.
Another issue is that with both Zibanejad and Panarin being righthanded shooters, they both like to set up for one-timers from the left faceoff circle. When they play together, that shot is taken away from one of them.
At the end of last season the Rangers top line was ZIbanejad, Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich. One thing is for sure. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are a good fit. According to Natural Stat Trick, Zibanjead and Kreider played 668 minutes together last season. When paired together they had more shots, scoring chances, high danger scoring chances and goals than the opposition. Their Corsi For percentage was 50.08%.
Add Pavel Buchnevich to the duo and their numbers dropped slightly, bu the trio still worked as a line. Their Corsi For dropped to 48.32%, but they still outscored and outchanced the opposition.
Knowing that a top line of Zibanejad, Kreider and Buchnevich has had success in the past, the question is what to do with Artemi Panarin.
Last season Panarin played primarily with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Cam Atkinson for the Blue Jackets. That line excelled, but the encouraging thing about Panarin was his numbers were good no matter who he played with and in fact, he improved all linemates he played with. That would be an argument for putting Panarin on a 1A line with Kaapo Kakko and Ryan Strome or Brett Howden or eventually, Filip Chytil.
Other teams do it
The Achilles Heel of the New York Rangers is the center ice position. They have one true elite center in Mika Zibanejad and then a number of contenders for second line center, none of whom have excelled in that role.
Some teams have a lot of success loading the top line with the best example the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have a fully loaded top line of Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. In this case, they moved Stamkos, a natural center, to the left wing to create an unstoppable top line. To be sure, there is more depth on the Lightning than the Rangers, but on paper, Tyler Johnson as the second line center instead of Stamkos doesn’t make that much sense.
An excellent example of a team that has distributed its forward wealth and is seeing it work are the Buffalo Sabres. They have purposely split up Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, their two top forwards in favor of two strong lines. Eichel is centering rookie Victor Olofsson and Sam Reinhart while Marcus Johansson is centering Skinner and Vladimir Sobotka.
The loaded top line would be Eichel centering Skinner and Reinhart. Instead, they went with the two line scenario and are off to a 6-1-1 start.
Why wait?
With the Rangers losing streak now at three games, it’s clear that Quinn is willing to shuffle his lines. Moving Kreider up to get him going was the right idea, but Quinn only went halfway and the move forced both Kreider and Buchnevich to play on the off wing at even strength, something that clearly caused some confusion during the Capitals game. If the coach was willing to change the defense pairings he had set from the beginning of training camp in only the second game of the season, why not try a ZIbanejad/Panarin separation?
The bottom line is the Rangers top line has scored three goals in five games at even strength. That’s just not going to get it done. The time to experiment is now.