New York Rangers: Treading water or moving forward?
The New York Rangers are in the second year of a rebuild that has become accelerated far faster than anyone anticipated. How far along are they in remolding the team?
When the New York Rangers announced that they were rebuilding in February 2018, the team was still in playoff contention. It was very possible that the team would make the post-season, but another early exit loomed. With several big contracts expiring, the idea of getting a return of youth and draft picks made perfect sense. The big difference was throwing Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller into the trade mix.
It’s now been two trade deadlines and off-seasons with another one looming. How well has the team done at remaking the team into one that will be a playoff contender? There are two questions to be asked. Are the “new” Rangers better now than the pre-rebuild and if not, will they be better and when.
Goalies
There was one area that was completely unaffected by the rebuild announcement and that was in goal. Henrik Lundqvist has an ironclad contract and no desire to move. Igor Shesterkin was drafted in 2014. Alexandar Georgiev had been signed in 2017. While one could say that Georgiev replaced Ondrej Pavlec in net as part of a youth movement at the end of 2017-18, it was his play in Hartford and an injury to Pavlec that led to his promotion.
There’s no doubt that the new Rangers are better in goal than the pre-2018 deadline team and their future is bright. To give credit where credit is due, this wasn’t a product of the rebuild, it was excellent scouting and talent assessment that resulted in signing an undrafted Georgiev and plucking Shesterkin in the fourth round in 2014.
Defense
If there is one area where the rebuild is clearly working, it is on the blueline. In less than two years, the team has completely remade the defense with the only one holdover from the pre-rebuild days.
At the 2018 trade deadline, the top six on the Rangers defense consisted of Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk, Brendan Smith and Nick Holden. The depth was provided by Anthony DeAngelo, Neal Pionk, Steven Kampfer and John Gilmour.
As a result of the rebuild the Rangers have traded McDonagh, Holden, Kampfer and Pionk and have discarded Shattenkirk and Gilmour.
The new defense corps is made up of newcomers Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, Libor Hajek with holdovers Brady Skjei, Marc Staal and a revitalized Tony DeAngelo.
Is the current defense better than the pre-rebuild squad? Would a top six of Ryan McDonagh, Brady Skjei, Marc Staal, Brendan Smith, Kevin Shattenkirk and Tony DeAngelo be a better blueline than what we have now?
Based on a small sample size of 38 games, you could make an argument for both, but the advantage has to fall on the new group. Trouba is close to Ryan McDonagh and Adam Fox is an even swap for Shattenkirk. Though young and still going through growing pains, the tandem of Lindgren and Hajek are better than Smith and Holden.
The rebuild also bodes well for the future. K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, Joey Keane and Zac Jones will all be NHL ready within three years and will step in to replace Staal or any of the current defense corps that can be used as trade bait.
When it comes to a rebuild, Jeff Gorton has done a masterful job and accelerated it by trading for Trouba (although his contract is probably excessive).
Centers
When it comes to forwards, we should look at wingers and centers separately. Every great team has featured strength up the middle and in 2018 that is the first area that needed attention especially after the trade of Derek Stepan in the summer of 2017.
Pre-2018 deadline, the team’s centers were Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller and David Desharnais. Gorton had stolen Zibanejad from the Senators, but he had yet to establish himself as one of the NHL’s elite. The trio of Hayes, Miller and Desharnais didn’t strike fear in any opponents and center ice was clearly a weakness.
Today, the centers are Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, Filip Chytil and Brett Howden with Greg McKegg available as a fill-in. At first glance the old and the new are pretty similar, but dig deeper and the current Rangers win out.
Zibanejad is now one of the top centers in the NHL, though he has yet to get that recognition. Strome has established himself as a consistent and solid pivot for a season and a half. He’s close to becoming the player everyone though the would be when he was drafted fifth overall in 2011. Never mind that his numbers are much, much better than those of Kevin Hayes.
Although J.T. Miller has become an elite forward for the Vancouver Canucks, there was no guarantee that he would get there in New York (he didn’t in Tampa) and this season, at 20, Chytil has become a true third line center. The jury is out on Brett Howden, but there is no one in the hockey world who would trade him for Desharnais.
There is reason to expect that this group of centers can remain intact for many years to come. If they can re-sign Strome after this season, they will be set. Lias Andersson was a viable option for a third or fourth line role but he has burned his bridges in New York. If Howden is not the answer, look for Morgan Barron of Cornell to turn pro after this college year and he could be ready to step in as early as next year or by 2021-22. Karl Henriksson will not be far behind.
Wingers
This is where the Blueshirts have a problem. The pre-2018 deadline wingers included Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash, Michael Grabner, Pavel Buchnevich, Jesper Fast, Jimmy Vesey and Paul Carey.
The current wingers include Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich, Jesper Fast, Kaapo Kakko, Brendan Lemieux, Brendan Smith and Greg McKegg. You have to subtract Kreider and Fast, sure to be gone at the trade deadline. Despite the addition of Artemi Panarin, the Rangers have not done a great job of rebuilding on the wing.
The simple fact is that the team has not replaced the firepower provided by Nash, Zuccarello, Grabner, Vesey and soon, Kreider. They have no one to replace the all-around play that Jesper Fast provides. Panarin has been spectacular, but Buchnevich has been a disappointment. Kaapo Kakko is still too young. As for Smith and McKegg, they are a fair trade for Vesey and Carey.
If there is one weakness in the current Blueshirts roster, it is on the wing. It has been disguised by the excellence of Artemi Panarin, but there is absolutely no depth at wing.
The future looks better, but it may take a few years to get there. Kaapo Kakko is having a fine rookie season and there is no reason to think he won’t become the player we thought he would be. Brendan Lemieux has a great upside and will continue to grow. Buchnevich remains an enigma.
The key to the future is Vitali Kravtsov. The Blueshirts desperately need him to be the player that they projected him to be. That means that in two years hopefully Panarin, Kravtsov and Kakko will be the cornerstone of the future, beyond those three there is a question mark. The only other forwards we can project to be part of this team moving forward are Buchnevich and Lemieux.
So, who are the other three forwards? Finnish prospect Lauri Pajuniemi is the only winger in the pipeline who has anyone excited and he is two years away.
Steps to take
Trade defensemen – There is no doubt about it. The Rangers will have to trade a defenseman, probably more than one. The question is who it will be and what they will get. They have a surplus of righthanded defensemen in Trouba, DeAngelo, Fox, Keane and Lundkvist. On the left side they have Skjei, Lindgren, Hajek, Smith, Yegor Rykov, K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones and Matt Robinson.
That’s 13 viable starting defensemen when you need six. The mission for Jeff Gorton is to flip some of these assets for some wingers who can score. And sorry folks, as much as you want that defenseman to be Brady Skjei, it’s going to be someone you won’t want to give up.
Deadline deals – There is also no chance that the Rangers won’t trade Chris Kreider and probably Jesper Fast. They need to get that first round draft pick back for Kreider that they can turn into another Filip Chytil. If they can get a second round pick that can become another Karl Henriksson, all the better.
At the top of the trading wishlist will be if Gorton can pull off another heist like the Zibanejad trade. It’s unfortunate that the Lias Andersson situation has descended into a stalemate that will result in a cheap selloff. Andersson hurt both himself and the team by his actions and everyone involved should be held accountable.
Grow the kids – This is a controversial one and contrary to the team’s current coaching philosophy. It’s vital that if the team assessment is that the playoffs are not in the cards, development of the young players must be the priority, even over winning. Giving players like Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil. Lemieux and Howden the chance to play important minutes with the best players on the team is crucial.
As for prospects, should Joey Keane get an audition on Broadway? What about giving Hartford’s leading scorer, Steven Fogarty, a shot as some meaningful shifts? If the Rangers are doomed to miss the playoffs there is no place for Brendan Smith, Micheal Haley or Greg McKegg in the lineup. It would be time to bite the bullet and give the kids a chance. Hey, it’s worked on the blueline, why not up front?
Free agency – The earliest that the team can dip back into free agency to try to supplement their wingers will be 2021-22 when they are free of the Lundqvist, Smith and Staal contracts. Judicious signings can further accelerate the rebuild and they will have the cap space to do it. If anything, Gorton has shown a knack for finding players who came to New York to revitalize their careers with Michael Grabner and Ryan Strome the best examples.
The draft lottery – Finally, we can talk about team growth and experience all we want, but if the Rangers are destined to miss the playoffs, there should be no hesitation about using current assets to build for the future. It may result in a third straight year of struggles this March and April, but a shot at a top five pick in the draft lottery in 2020 could be the difference between a Cup win and frustration in 2024.
Realistic expectations
If you had predicted that the Rangers were to be contending for a playoff spot two years after selling off some of their best assets and going the route of a total youth movement many would have said you were crazy. But that’s where they are, sort of. The Blueshirts are the youngest team in the NHL, they win more than they lose and have enough talent to beat good teams, but they are flawed and inexperienced and if anything they are overachieving.
The reality is that the team is going to be selling and not buying at the February trade deadline and are destined to miss the playoffs. While the playoffs in 2020-21 is a possiblity, it’s the next season when we should expect to see the Rangers in the Stanley Cup conversation.
2021-22 will be the year when players like ZIbanejad, Trouba and Panarin will still be in their prime and youngsters like Kakko, Fox, Lindgren, Chytil and Kravtsov will be hitting their stride. Kids like Miller, Lundkvist and Pauniemi will be getting their first NHL experience. It will be a great mix of experienced talent, top young stars and impressive kids.
The personnel decisions the team makes over the next eight months will determine if that is the timeline for the Rangers to return to true playoff contention. They cannot afford any missteps like Lias Andersson, but if Gorton plays his cards right he could make deals to create the mix of forwards the team is lacking. And that would mean a return to real playoff contention in under two years.
More. A thrilling OT win in Toronto. light