New York Rangers: Is Jeff Gorton the right guy for the job?
Jeff Gorton gets a lot of kudos for his work rebuilding the New York Rangers. The common assessment is that he took an organization that was gutted by years of sacrificing for the present at the expense of future and has made it into a team that is ready to become a Stanley Cup contender. Is it true?
Let’s get one thing straight. The New York Rangers are a multi-million dollar corporation. They are the most valuable franchise in the NHL per Forbes Magazine, valued at $1.7 billion dollars. Their operating income is in excess of $120 million per year.
Owner James Dolan hired a new CEO in May when he plucked John Davidson away from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Davidson’s mission is to build a winner and increase the revenue, just as it is for any corporate CEO. In taking over, Davidson inherited an organization and so far, he has made no major changes in the operating structure.
He has made some changes. He started with their Hartford Wolf Pack farm team, replacing the coaching staff. He added regional player development experts to help nurture the Rangers’ plethora of prospects here and in Europe.
However, he has not made any changes to the NHL team and the question is, what is he considering? When there is a corporate shake-up, change is inevitable and no one should believe that anyone in the group of holdovers is safe in the long run. In fact, this season has to be seen as an audition for them in front of their new boss.
So far, the audition has had mixed results
Davidson’s track record
When John Davidson became President of the St. Louis Blues in 2006 he inherited respected hockey executive Larry Pleau as his general manager. When Pleau stepped down in 2010 Davidson replaced him with Doug Armstrong who was the Director of Player Personnel. As a newcomer to the management structure he stayed within the organization.
Davidson became President of the Columbus Blue Jackets in October 2012. He fired General Manager Scott Howson in February, replacing him with Jarmo Kekalainen, who he had worked with in St. Louis. Kekalainen had left the Blues and returned to Finland when Davidson hired Armstrong as GM.
The Blue Jackets coach, Todd Richards, last two seasons under Davidson before he was replaced by John Tortorella.
So, in St. Louis in his first gig as a hockey executive, Davidson took his time before making any changes in the organization and he also stayed with personnel from the organization. In Columbus, it was different and he was quick to remove the GM so he could appoint Kekalainen was was his clear choice after their work together with the Blues.
The Rangers record
For all of the kudos directed at Jeff Gorton, the results are mixed. On the major league level, the team has not taken any steps forward when it comes to their record. One year ago, the team had 49 points after 48 games. This year, it is 50 points. The year the rebuild was announced, 2017-18, they had 53 points.
Gone from last years’ team are Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Shattenkirk and Neal Pionk. They were replaced by Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, Kaapo Kakko and Adam Fox. There is no doubt that as one of the youngest teams in the NHL they will going through growing pains, but in the standings, the Rangers are treading water.
Organizationally, the Rangers have been recognized as having one of the top prospect pools in the NHL. In reality, it would be hard to not have a strong prospect pool if you consider that the Rangers have had 25 draft picks in the last three years, including six first rounders.
The reality is that the jury is out on those draft picks and the best prospects came via the lottery, trade or earlier drafts. There is a huge issue for that prospect pool as it is heavy with defensemen and top forwards are a scarcity. Gordie Clark has been running the personnel decisions for years and those choices are on him and his boss.
As encouraging as it is to see the Rangers get unexpected wins over Washington, Pittsburgh and Colorado, is it any different from the pre-All-Star break wins last season over playoff contenders like San Jose, Nashville and Boston?
The fact is that the Rangers are another also-ran team this season and will be a seller at the deadline and a lottery contender.
How about Gorton?
So, how safe is Jeff Gorton? He has a mixed record. We took a deep dive into his record over the summer and you can see that here. Six months later, we can revisit his performance.
One factor in his favor has been his trade deadline record as a seller. Over the last two seasons, Gorton has extorted a king’s ransom of draft picks and prospects from playoff contenders. His best deal was the Rick Nash trade. That would be a win-win for the Rangers if it was only Ryan Lindgren as the return. The fact that he was able to flip Ryan Spooner for Ryan Strome makes it even better without even factoring in the draft picks.
The Ryan McDonagh trade is losing a lot of luster this season. McDonagh continues to star for the Lightning and J.T. Miller has finally blossomed into a star forward, albeit for Vancouver. The Rangers’ return has been less compelling. Vladislav Namestnikov was basically given away in a salary cap move and the two top prospects, Bret Howden and Libor Hajek, have been good, but not great. Although they are both still only 21 years old, Howden has shown an inability to score and Hajek has had issues you would expect from a rookie defensemen. That’s a trade that will have to be judged in a few years.
Last year’s Mats Zuccarello transaction is all about the future as he was swapped for draft picks. The Kevin Hayes trade is just okay with Brendan Lemieux as adequate return and the first round pick traded right back to Winnipeg. More on that later.
As a trade deadline buyer, he’s much less successful. Brendan Smith was a decent acquisition, but then was overpaid. The less said about the trade for Eric Staal the better.
In evaluating Gorton’s player transactions, it’s an interesting mix. He gets a ton of credit for the Mika Zibanejad deal, but we will never know who picked up the phone first. People forget that Derick Brassard led the Rangers in goals the prior season and in his first season with Ottawa the Senators eliminated the Rangers from the playoffs and came within a double overtime goal of the Stanley Cup Finals.
We give Gorton credit for getting Zibanejad, when it could have been a case of Pierre Dorion offering Zibanejad and Gorton having the good sense to say yes. The Strome deal was a clear winner for the Rangers. Other than that, his other trades have been just okay.
One could argue that Gorton gave up too much for Jacob Trouba, who clearly wanted out of Winnipeg. The same goes for Adam Fox who refused to to play for any NHL team but the Rangers. He gave up useful NHL players like Namestnikov and Jimmy Vesey for little in return and his discarding of Ryan Graves could go down as his worst trade ever.
Financial management
Perhaps the area that requires the greatest scrutiny are the contracts that Gorton has given out. Signing Zibanejad to a long-term team-friendly contract was smart. Signing Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei to their deals have the makings of disasters. The Kevin Shattenkirk signing was a mistake and ended up with a buyout that will cripple the team financially next season. While acquiring Jacob Trouba was a positive move, handing him an $8 million annual salary could end up haunting the Rangers for years.
People forget that he signed Ryan Spooner and Vlad Namestnikov each to overvalued two-year $8 million contracts. I’ll say that again. He signed Ryan Spooner to a two year contract for $4 million annually.
This off-season, when presented with the option of inking Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony DeAngelo or Brendan Lemieux to a bridge deal, he picked Buchnevich to get the $3.25 million million. That decision is not looking like it is the right one.
Draft record
Perhaps the most troubling issue with Gorton’s tenure has been his draft record. It’s too early to pass judgment on his most recent picks, but the Lias Andersson pick is a disaster (right now) and of the 13 picks he made in his first two years from 2016-17, Filip Chytil is a keeper while Tyler Wall, Morgan Barron and Tarmo Reuanen still have potential.
Gorton has shown faith in Gordie Clark despite some monumental draft mistakes. They insist on drafting under the “best player available” standard. That has resulted in nine defensemen picked out of the last 18 picks. Of the eight forwards they have drafted, only three forwards were taken in the first three rounds as compared to six defensemen.
Since the 2015 draft, the Blue Jackets have selected Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Werenski and Markus Nutivaara and this year, Alex Texier, as productive NHL players. For the Rangers, it’s been Chytil and this year, Kakko.
You have to believe that Davidson will be watching the progress of Vitali Kravtsov and K’Andre Miller very closely and if they don’t pan out, that will be Gorton’s ultimate responsibility.
John Davidson also has to be wondering what the heck is going on with the team’s top prospects like Andersson and Kravtsov and in the long run, Kaapo Kakko. The drama surrounding these players has been an embarrassment to the organization and he shouldn’t stand for it.
The final decision
If John Davidson has proven anything in his tenure as a hockey executive it’s that he makes smart decisions and is not rash when making them. He allowed Howson a chance to prove himself, but he had his sights set on Kekalainen. He gave Todd Richards more time before allowing Kekalainen to make the coaching change.
If Davidson is unhappy with the way things are going in New York, there are a number of routes he could take. In Columbus he hired player agent Bill Zito and groomed him as a hockey executive. Zito was the leading candidate to become GM for the expansion Seattle franchise, but took himself out of the running when his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer last May.
He’s recently been mentioned as a candidate for the vacant GM position in New Jersey. With his connections to Davidson, he has to be seen as a possible hire if JD wants his own man.
The bottom line is that in the NHL it is winning that matters most, but the bottom line is just as important. While Gorton is not to blame for all of the Rangers’ cap issues, he did sign Brendan Smith and Kevin Shattenkirk. How much did he advocate for Trouba’s bloated contract? He’s also responsible for building an organization that has maybe three legitimate NHL forward prospects in the pipeline.
There’s plenty to like about consistency in a team’s management team. A cohesive plan for the future is essential for the success of any organization, but there has been a major corporate shakeup for the Rangers. It’s easy to say that this February’s trade deadline will be Jeff Gorton’s final exam. If changes are on the horizon, no one should be surprised.
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