New York Rangers: When will the rebuild end?

The New York Rangers are currently kicking a can around in Roster Purgatory. With the Trade Deadline less than two weeks away, the Blueshirts find themselves in a strikingly similar scenario to that of last year: Cap Hell, Roster Purgatory, and the fanbase wondering where they are in this rebuilding process.

The New York Rangers are currently nine points outside of a wild card spot, but (excluding Detroit…) are still closer to the bottom than the top. The team still has too much money tied up in Glen Sather‘s leftovers and the answer to – “Can this team make a serious run at the Cup?” – is still the same.

Regardless if you like the team ( and they are a likable bunch) this team is not a contender by any sense of the word. They’ll win your heart, but not a championship.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Rangers are again asking, “Are we buying or are we selling? Are we staying steadfast? Are we blowing up the ship?” A lot of questions; a lot of unknowns.

So what do we know?

The franchise

Never say never, but unless the trade of a life time rears its pessimistic Punxsutawney Phil of a head from the heavens above or if Jeff Gorton has a few too many ‘soda pops’ right before the trade deadline, these players aren’t going anywhere.

– unless you’re a politician, you don’t pay a man nearly $12 million dollars for him to go away, especially if he’s a candidate for league MVP; plus he has a no movement clause… so there’s that.

• Mika Zibanejad – no movement clause, but would there even be a debate here? He’s currently sporting a 1.15 PPG and has three shorthanded goals on the season. There’s a strong case for him to be the next captain.

– he finally popped the seal against the Kings the other night. He’s played better as of late, but the second-overall pick isn’t living up to hype just yet.  The the only thing that makes this hurt a little less, is that

Jack Hughes

hasn’t been any better. Regardless, it’s far too early to sling malice on the

teenager

. His talent is there, he’s just not a downhill skater yet. However, when he puts the pieces together, he’ll be

the next Mikko Rantanen.

The rumor mill

• Chris Kreider – the most sought after player at the trade deadline will be Chris Kreider. His play has been so captivating, because he’s finally skating downhill like we always wanted him to. His goal against Toronto was Kreider at his best. Fans are going to be sad to see him go, but they’ll sadder when he’s asking for $6.5 to $7 million a year for an extension. If he takes a discount to stay in the Apple, that’s one thing, but expect him to garner a contract similar to Evander Kane and Kevin Hayes. It’s no mistake that the front office sent him to the All-Star game over DeAngelo and Zibanejad. They were dangling a carrot.

• Tony DeAngelo – is it a coincidence that DeAngelo is having his breakout year the same year as a contract season? Probably not. He is currently the sixth highest scoring defensemen in the entire NHL and Rangers fans are dying for him to stay. However, the majority of his play comes on the power play. If the team finds themselves playing predominately even-strength, like they did against Toronto, DeAngelo just sits in limbo on the third-defensive unit. Why is the sixth highest scoring defensemen in the league, with a positive plus-minus, playing the fewest minutes of any defensemen on either team? It might be wise for the New York Rangers to explore trading him for a talented winger to who can requite some of DeAngelo’s offensive talent. Perhaps a Kasperi Kapanen?
• Pavel Buchnevich – his name has started to pop up in the trade circuit. He’s played like a man possessed as of late, but it appears that he and Coach David Quinn aren’t seeing eye to глаз (Russian for eye). If a trade is there, don’t be surprised to see Buchnevich depart.

• Ryan Strome – is about to get paid. It’s been a breakout season for sure for Ryan Strome. There’s been a proverbial monkey on his back since his 50 point campaign with the Islanders in 2014-15. It’s almost hard to believe that the Rangers only had to trade Ryan Spooner for Strome, but now might be a good time to sell high. Strome has played some darn good hockey, but he’s also played on a line with Artemi Panarin. That makes his job a lot easier.

• Jesper Fast – quick question – although he is the recipient of the Rangers’s Player’s Player Award for the past four consecutive seasons, should the Rangers prioritize resigning him if he’s asking more than $2.5 million a season?

Alexander Georgiev

– there is a gridlock in net. If the Rangers cannot make one or two moves happen (which we’ll mention shortly), the Rangers may be stuck between a King and a hard place.

Why is the sixth highest scoring defensemen in the league, with a positive plus-minus, playing the fewest minutes of any defensemen on either team?

Who we’re stuck with

• Marc Staal – Staal would be fine if he were making third-line defenseman money, but he’s not. Ryan Lindgren already does all the things that Staal does, but better and more confidently. Every game you see Staal lumbering around, waving his stick and then hang his head in despair after the opposing team dances around him. He’s a physical as a fart in the wind – which is essentially a temporary inconvenience.

– WHAT ARE YOU! The only successful wingers/defensemen in the league

are Dustin Byfuglien and Brent Burns. Brendan Smith, you are neither. You are the healthiest scratch in Rangers fan’s backsides. The wound won’t heal! Your $4.35 million should be going to Ryan Strome on a bridge deal or resigning Lemieux/Fast. You are being paid to sit in box seats and torment fans at this point.

• Brady Skjei – it’s not you, it’s your contract. Skjei has yet to live up to his contract and that’s not his fault. If anything, Glen Sather should have recognized what he had in front of him. Skjei is still only 25 and still has time to prove that a six-year contract was the right call. However, it’s hard to justify the money when you’re playing alongside Tony DeAngelo, Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba. Especially, when your contract could cost us DeAngelo.

• Lias Andersson – this is just a confusing situation from start to finish. Here’s hoping his reputation is salvaged.

• Henrik Lundqvist – “You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” – Batman, The Dark Knight. Igor Shesterkin and Alexander Georgiev are ready. There will never be another King. There will never be another tailored-suit wearing, guitar-playing icon like Henrik Lundqvist. He is everything the New York Rangers could have hoped for. A seventh-round gamble that currently is sixth all-time in wins. Fans can never express their true thanks for all you did, Hank… but for the greater good, you’ve got to go. In order to avoid another year of purgatory, Henrik Lundqvist needs to waive his no movement clause. The Rangers can retain a portion of next year’s salary and Lundqvist can finally pursue that coveted cup. It’s a win-win.

“You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” – Batman, The Dark Knight.

So who’s left?

There are a  few prospects that the New York Rangers are counting on. They include: Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Yegor Rykov and Nils Lundkvist. We forget about Libor Hajek who looked strong when healthy this season. I’ve also failed to mention Brett Howden, who’s yet to find his niche.

So, if everything went to plan. If Lundqvist waives his no movement clause and the Rangers are able to get through the next year, they’ll be rid of Staal’s and Smith’s contracts, PLUS the $6 million dollars they owe Kevin Shattenkirk due to the buyout.

That’s a combined $16+ million of dead money gone.

Then you add Lundqvist’s $8.5 million and that’s more than $24.5 million in cap room. 

The Seattle expansion

The problem with this timeline is that it directly correlates with the 2021 Seattle Expansion Draft. The complete list of rules are here, but they’re identical to the Vegas Expansion draft. The simplified version is this: each team can either protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie or each team can protect: eight skaters and one goalie.

Luckily, all first and second year players are exempt from this, so the majority of our prospect pool is safe. However, this means with both our cap restraints and the Seattle Expansion, the New York Rangers won’t be able to build effectively until after the expansion draft.

This means that our primary goal between now and then is to lose as few prospects and potential core-pieces as possible.

Looking to 2020-2021

So, what will the 2020-21 New York Rangers look like?  The rebuild is far from over and there are many decisions to be made in the next six months.   If Lundqvist is no longer with the team and if they can re-sign all of their restricted free agents, this is what the roster looks like:

LEFT WING                    CENTER                  RIGHT WING

Artemi Panarin         Ryan Strome            Kaapo Kakko
Open                           Mika Zibanejad        Pavel Buchnevich
Brendan Lemieux     Filip Chytil                Vitali Kravtsov
Open                            Brett Howden         Brendan Smith

LEFT DEFENSE        RIGHT DEFENSE

Brady Skjei                  Jacob Trouba
Marc Staal                  Tony DeAngelo
Ryan Lindgren           Adam Fox

GOALIES

Igor Shesterkin
Alexander Georgiev

BENCH

Yegor Rykov
Libor Hajek

There are still two gaping holes at forward and the key questions are whether the Rangers have capable replacements in Hartford to offset the scoring of Chris Kreider.

Except for one more year of experience for their young players, the team is virtually the same minus a couple key parts in Kreider and Fast.  If Lundqvist returns there will be many more question marks going into the season.

That leaves us with the 2021-22 season when the Rangers should have the cap space to make some hay despite the expansion draft.

The breakdown

All signs point to the rebuild ending in 2021-22. It’s been predicted and practically proven that this is the case.

In terms of current prospects, the team seems secure in net and on defense. If anything, there might be a logjam on the backend and Jeff Gorton could use a prospect in a trade for some needed depth up front.

It’s also possible that a player in need of a change of scenery, like a Ryan Strome, emerges and a quality trade reappears like Punxsutawney Phil.

Looking at our offensive prospects, there aren’t too many that can hold a candle to our defensive prospects. Perhaps Lias Andersson has change of… heart and maybe Boo Nieves finally solidifies himself as a fourth line center.

And it’s even  possible in all the expansion hoopla that a player falls through waivers into Gorton’s lap. And if none of that works, the Rangers can always turn to the 2021 free agency class. 

Worst case scenario

If worse comes worse  and the New York Rangers fail to find a way to handle Lundqvist’s contract now and they lose Chris Kreider, Tony DeAngelo, Ryan Strome, Brendan Lemieux, Jesper Fast and Alexander Georgiev, then the team be entering 2021-22 even further behind and the New York Rangers could have to wait a whole other season to contend.