The buyer’s market means Kreider will be traded

When the New York Rangers revealed that they were opening up negotiations with Chris Kreider, it brought some hope to the fans who wanted him to stay.  Based on the return from recent trades, the Rangers cannot afford to keep him.

Chris Kreider is a goner.  The only question that remains is how long Jeff Gorton will hold before blinking and pulling the trigger on a deal.  The New York Rangers forward is still at the top of all of the trade bait lists and with recent injuries, his value has only increased.

If Jeff Gorton and the Rangers thought that it would be a buyers market this season, think again.  In just a couple days it has become a sellers market. And that makes the New York Rangers sellers.

For weeks, hockey cognoscenti have predicted that Kreider was the only player worth a first round draft pick.  Think again.  Three forwards have been swapped in the last week and it’s worth looking at what the return was in each case.

Blake Coleman to Tampa

The Devils got Vancouver’s first round pick acquired by Tampa in the J.T. Miller deal, but it is a conditional pick. If the Canucks miss the playoffs, the pick is in 2021.  Nolan Foote was Tampa’s first round pick in 2019, selected 27th overall.  The Athletic (subscription required) ranked him the top prospect in the Tampa system.

So, in exchange for Blake Coleman the Devils got the equivalent of two first round draft picks. Coleman is not a rental as he is under contract for one more year at the bargain basement rate of $1.8 million per year.

Tyler Toffoli to Vancouver

The Kings did very well on this trade.  Tyler Madden is a top prospect who is slated to be a top six NHL forward.  He is the son of former NHL player John Madden and is the top scorer for Northeastern University where he is a sophomore.

Tim Schaller is a UFA after this season so his inclusion was for salary cap purposes and he wasn’t a bit piece of this transaction.  The second round pick is a solid return and the fourth round pick is conditional, going to Los Angeles if Toffoli re-signs with Vancouver.

The Athletic ranked Madden as the third best prospect in the Vancouver system although he was a third round pick in 2018.  If the draft was re-done today, Madden would probably go late in the first round or early in the second.

Toffoli is a  pure rental as he is a UFA after this season. Although he has scored 18 goals this season, he had only 13 last season and is nowhere near Kreider in terms of impact.   Yet, he netted the Kings a first round pick equivalent and a second rounder.  Kreider should get more.

Jason Zucker to Pittsburgh

This is another non-rental deal, but there is even more term when it comes to Zucker, who is under contract through 2022-23 at an annual hit of $5.5 million.  The return for the Wild was substantial with the cornerstone the addition of defensive prospect Calen Addison.

Addison was ranked the #1 prospect for the Penguins according to The Athletic and he was one of Canada’s top players at the WJC this winter.  The expectation is that he will be a top pair defenseman.

The conditions on the first round pick is if the Penguins don’t make the playoffs, it could be flipped to 2021.   As for Galchenyuk, his inclusion was strictly a salary cap issue as he is also a UFA after this season.

So, for Jason Zucker, the Wild got a first round draft pick and a stud defensive prospect.  This for a player who is  consistently is in the high teens, low 20’s when it comes goal scoring and has eclipsed the 30 goal mark just once.

While Zucker should do well with better linemates in Pittsburgh, he is still no comparison to Kreider when it comes to ability to impact a game.

Other available forwards

As we get closer to the weekend there will be more deals.  Here are the names to keep an eye on.

The top UFA forwards on non-contenders after Kreider are J.G. Pageau, Ilya Kovalchuck, Vlad Namestnikov, Wayne Simmonds and Conor Sheary.  There are forwards under contract who are being dangled including Kyle Palmieri, Jonas Brodin, Kasperi Kapanen, Ryan Donato, Kyle Turris and Alex Kerfoot.

If any of these players go in the next few days, it will further refine the possible return for Chris Kreider. So far, the return for the players already traded has exceeded expectations and that makes Kreider even more valuable.

Based on his past practices, Jeff Gorton will wait until the last minute before he makes the deal as he did with the Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Hayes trades.  Don’t be surprised if Kreider is a healthy scratch as early as Thursday’s game against Carolina.

Six more days to go.