The New York Rangers are making a late season dash to the playoffs. Even if they make it, history shows that their postseason run will come up short.
It’s a cliche. Anything can happen if you make the playoffs. It’s the dream for the New York Rangers and every team that vies for postseason participation. It’s the mantra that every hockey fan lives by. There’s only one problem. It isn’t true.
For that reason alone, while Jeff Gorton looks at his options leading up to the trade deadline and ponders whether to re-sign Chris Kreider and hold onto assets and go for the playoffs, the only answer is to sell. The Rangers will not be a true Stanley Cup contender until they are one of the elite teams in the NHL and they are not there yet. They may be there in a year or two, but not today.
A history lesson
The bottom line is if you want to win the Stanley Cup, you need to be one of the elite teams. That means finishing among the top ten teams in the NHL. Since the Rangers won the Cup in 1994, how many teams have won the championship without finishing among the top ten point getters in the NHL that season? One.
The 2012 Los Angeles Kings are the only team last 25 years that can legitimately be called a “Cinderella team.” They finished the regular season with 95 points, 13th best in the NHL, barely making the playoffs. All they did then was breeze through all four rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, winning 16 games while losing only four.
Not only that, while 24 out of the last 25 Stanley Cup Champions finished in the top ten in the NHL, 17 of those teams also finished in the top five for points the season that they won.
Close but no cigar
There have been teams that sneaked into the playoffs and made it all the way to the Finals. Eight teams in the last 25 years made the playoffs without finishing in the top ten pointswise, only to lose in the final round. The 2014 New York Rangers are one of those teams, finishing second in the Metropolitan Division with 96 points. 11 teams had more points than the Blueshirts that year.
If making it to the Finals qualifies as a Cinderella-type year, there is a chance for a lesser team to make it. Consider the 2014 Vancouver Canucks. They finished with the 14th most points in the league and took the Rangers to a Game Seven in the Finals before losing.
Most recently, the Philadelphia Flyers made the playoffs on the last day of the 2009-10 season by beating the Rangers in a shootout. They finished with 88 points, worse than 14 other NHL teams that season. They only went on to the Finals before losing to the Chicago Blackhawks in six games.
This season
That brings us to this season. The Rangers have 20th most points in the NHL with 66. They will have to finish at least 11th or 12th overall in order to quality for the playoffs. With that record, history dictates an early exit from the playoffs and even if they go deeper, they will ultimately fall short.
While there is something to said for young players getting some playoff action, what Jeff Gorton has to do is weigh the value of a round or two of playoff experience with the potential haul he can get for Chris Kreider and any other assets he can deal.
For fans it’s important to look at the big picture. Sure, three years of missing the playoffs may seem like an eternity, but if this team wants to be ready to be a “real” contender, the retooling must continue.
So, is it short term gratification or long-term improvement? From an historical perspective, the path the Rangers should take seems obvious.