New York Rangers: What it will take to make the playoffs

The New York Rangers have 22 games left in their season.  They are five points out of the last wild card spot and they are on a roll.  What will it take to make the playoffs?

Just a couple weeks ago, the New York Rangers were done.  They were out of the playoff race and prepared for a massive trade deadline sell-off.  Since then, they have won 13 of 19 and six of their last seven.  Only five points out of the wild card with games in hand on some of them, the Blueshirts are primed for success.

Even the projections are improving.  Hockeyreference.com’s Playoff Probability Report shows the Rangers with a 23% chance of making the playoffs, up from single digits just a few days ago.  For the first time this year they show the Rangers with a 2.6% chance of making it to the Conference Finals and a 1.6% shot at the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Athletic (subscription required) projects the team to finish with 90.4 points and a 13% shot at the playoffs. They give the Rangers no shot at getting to the Conference Finals or winning the Cup.

While these estimates are based on simulated games, they don’t take into account the intangibles like the brilliance of Igor Shesterkin and the momentum a team can get from a player like him.

How many points?

Last season it took 98 points to make the wild card in the East.  The season before, it was 97 points.  Since the introduction of the wild card in 2013-14, the fewest points to get in was 93 in that first year.

Let assume that it will take 96 points to make the playoffs in the wild card.  Here’s what the Rangers need to do over their last 22 games.  They would need 28 points, meaning that they would need to be six games over .500 and go 14-8.  I’ll say that again.  14-8.  Folks, that’s do-able.

The tie-breaker

One key factor is the new NHL tie-breaker and it’s where the Rangers have a distinct advantage.  Whereas it was formerly regulation and overtime wins, this season it is regulation wins.  This season the Rangers have 28 regulation wins, tied for the most in the Metropolitan Division with the Washington Capitals.  Here’s how their wild card rivals compare.  Carolina, Philadelphia and Toronto have 24. Columbus and the Islanders have 23.  Only Florida is close with 27.

The schedule

A lot has been made of the fact that the Rangers have the second toughest schedule of any NHL team this rest of this season.

The play 12 road games and 10 home games.  The Rangers have won seven in a row on the road and improved their road record to 16-11-2.  As much as Madison Square Garden is a factor, the Blueshirts have become road warriors.

Half of their remaining games are against teams from the Metropolitan Division with four more against Atlantic Division teams. Those are all mostly the proverbial four point games.

It is a tough slate of games.  They play Pittsburgh and Philadelphia three times. They play Washington twice. That’s eight of the remaining 22 games against the three best teams in the Division.  Among other elite teams, they still have to play single games against Tampa, Colorado, Dallas and St Louis.

So, 12 of their 22 games are against teams we can call among the best in the league.

They have single games against Eastern Conference wild card rivals Columbus, Florida and the Islanders and Western Conference playoff contenders Arizona and Calgary.

That leaves five games against teams that are going to be out of the playoff picture.  That’s five must-win games against San Jose, Montreal, Buffalo, New Jersey and Chicago.

What they need to do

Of the five games that the Rangers should win, three are at home.  Assuming the Rangers win those five games, they need to go 9-8 against the best of the NHL.    Only seven of those 17 games are at Madison Square Garden.  That will be a challenge.  One game over .500 with a majority of their games on the road won’t be easy, but if they continue to play the way they have been playing, they can do it.

The Rangers are on a remarkable run.  They cannot afford to let up and it will be a bigger challenge if the team trades their spiritual leader, Chris Kreider.   The good news is this is a new Rangers team we are watching and they are making a  habit of meeting and besting challenges.  No matter how the season ends, it will be a fascinating run.

The remaining schedule

Here’s the schedule of remaining games:

Saturday, Feb. 22 – San Jose
Tuesday, Feb. 25 –At  NY Islanders
Thursday, Feb. 27 – At Montreal
Friday, Feb. 28 – At Philadelphia

Sunday, March 1 – Philadelphia
Tuesday, March 3 – St. Louis
Thursday, March 5 – Washington
Saturday, March 7 – New Jersey
Tuesday, March 10 – At Dallas
Wednesday, March 11 – At Colorado
Saturday, March 14 – At Arizona
Monday, March 16 – Calgary
Wednesday, March 18 – Pittsburgh
Friday, March 20 – At Pittsburgh
Sunday, March 22 – At Buffalo
Tuesday, March 24 – Columbus
Thursday, March 26 – At Washington
Saturday, March 28 – At Tampa Bay
Monday, March 30 – At Florida

Wednesday, Apr. 1 – Philadelphia
Thursday, Apr. 2 – At Pittsburgh
Saturday, Apr. 4 – Chicago