The Kreider factor: How important is he?

Fans of the New York Rangers are conflicted when it comes to Chris Kreider.  There are three options for his future and there are good reasons to pursue each of them.  But, how valuable is Chris Kreider to the Rangers?

There is no denying that Chris Kreider is a New York Rangers team leader.  He is one of the senior players in tenure and has been a role model for the younger players.  All of those intangibles play a part in the decision-making process.  But, statistically, how important has Kreider been to the success of the team?

Okay, as we wait for the Rangers to make their decision about his future, let’s take yet another look at Chris Kreider and his value to the Blueshirts.   One way to look at it is to examine his impact on wins and losses strictly by the scoresheet. It’s not scientific and doesn’t take into account factors that are present in each game, but it’s interesting to take a look (and it kills time as we wait).

Goals

One factor is clear.  When Chris Kreider scores, the Ranger win more often. And his importance in that area has increased as the team has gotten worse.  Here are the Rangers’ records over the last five years when Kreider scores a goal:

KREIDER GOAL
YEAR            W  L  OTL
2019-20     15-6-1
2018-19     12-4-8
2017-18      11-3-0
2016-17      15-7-2
2015-16      12-6-1
The conclusion you can draw is that when Kreider scores, the Rangers have a better chance of winning, usually twice as likely.  But how do they do when he doesn’t score a goal?

KREIDER NO GOAL
YEAR            W  L  OTL
2019-20     18-17-2
2018-19     19-30-6
2017-18        8-9-6
2016-17      27-20-4
2015-16      32-21-7

The interesting factor here is that during the rebuild, the Rangers haven’t won as much when he doesn’t score compared to the two years before the rebuild when the team was more likely to win even if he was off the scoresheet.

Points

Okay, that’s goals.  What about points?  When Kreider contributes offensively, what is the result?  Here’s the won-lost record over the last five years when Kreider has gotten at least one point in a game.:

KREIDER  POINTS
YEAR            W  L  OTL
2019-20     23-10-1
2018-19     20-8-9
2017-18      17-8-3
2016-17      23-14-3
2015-16      21-10-4

it’s clear from the won-lost numbers that when Kreider is able to get at least a point, it gives the Rangers a  good chance of winning, especially over the last two seasons. When Kreider is held scoreless, what are the results?

KREIDER NO POINTS
YEAR             W  L  OTL
2019-20     10-13-3
2018-19     11-26-5
2017-18      10-15-5
2016-17      19-13-3
2015-16      23-17-4

Before this season and the arrival of Artemi Panarin, if Kreider was stopped, so were the Rangers, especially last season.  In 2018-19, a bad Rangers team got 49 of 74 possible points when Kreider’s name was on the scoresheet.  That’s 68% of the possible points  When it wasn’t they notched 27 of 84 or 32% of the possible points.

Even this season with the increased firepower from Panarin and Zibanejad, Kreider has had an impact.  The team has gotten 69% of the possible points when Kreider gets a point and on 44% of possible points when he doesn’t.

Conclusion

So, does all of this mean anything?  It may be just a bunch of useless numbers that don’t reveal quality of shots or shot attempts or any of a number of analytics.  However, the one conclusion is that as the quality of the team has gotten worse, Kreider’s importance has increased.

When the Rangers were a Stanley Cup contender in the mid-2010’s he was an important contributor, but not the essential piece that he has become.  As the Rangers get better, will be remain the offensive focus that he is now?   They cannot win as much without him now, but what about in two or three years?

These are all of the factors the Rangers brain trust are weighing as they have to decide what to do with him.  We all know the three options: 1) Trade him now for usable assets for the present and future.  2) Sign him to a contract that will keep him a Ranger until he is in his mid-thirties 3) Keep him for this playoff run and let him go into free agency this summer

This season’s spectacularly unexpected run to the playoffs has been seductive.  We’ve all been caught up in playoff fever and the dream of a long postseason run.   But considering their cap constraints, the expansion draft and his age,  the simple fact is that a deadline trade is what should be inevitable unless he is willing to sacrifice dollars and term to stay a Ranger.

Let’s see what happens.