New York Rangers: What it will take to make the playoffs

While the weekend left the New York Rangers floundering in the playoff race, there is still hope.  It will require some cooperation from their playoff rivals, but what is most important, the Blueshirts need to win games.

All hope is not lost for the New York Rangers.  If the Islanders, Hurricanes and Blue Jackets keep winning, it is out of their hands.  If those teams lose, the Rangers can catch them.

One thing we cannot do is look at their schedules and predict which games they will win and lose.  Teams are winning games they should lose and losing games they should win.  They are winning on the road and losing at home.   Nothing is predictable  except that there will be wins and losses.

The good news is the Rangers have the advantage in the tiebreaker over all of their rivals.  They have 30 regulation wins and no one else has more than 26. Here’s what it will take.

Columbus Blue Jackets

On Monday morning, the Blue Jackets found themselves sitting in the first wild card spot with a record of 33-22-15 and 81 points, only three points out of third place in the Metropolitan Division and two points ahead of the Hurricanes.  They have 12 games remaining, the fewest of the contenders.

Blue Jackets go:              Rangers need to go:
8-4   97 points                 10-3-1  97 points
6-6   93 points                  8-5-1   93 points
4-8   89 points                  6-7-1    89 points

There you have it.  The Rangers basically have to win two more games than the Blue Jackets the rest of the season.  Mark Tuesday, March 24 on your calendars.  That’s the only time Columbus plays the Rangers.   The Jackets also play the Hurricanes and Islanders once more each this season.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have now won two in a row after dropping four in a row.  They have a record of 37-25-5 for 79 points. They are done playing the Rangers this season so no four point games with them.  In their last 14 games, they do have one game remaining with the Islanders and Blue Jackets, not good for the Blueshirts since that means guaranteed points for at least one playoff contender.

Hurricanes go:                 Rangers need to go:
10-5   99 points               11-2-1   99 points
8-7     95 points                9-4-1     95 points
7-8     93 points                8-5-1     93 points
4-11   87 points                5-8-1     87 points

The Hurricanes will be tough to catch if they go one game over .500 the rest of the way.   They are getting hot despite injuries and it’s not at the right time for the Rangers.

New York Islanders

The Islanders have the same number of  points as the Hurricanes, so the projects remain the same as with the Hurricanes.  The Isles fall behind Carolina because of the regulation wins tiebreaker.  The Islanders have won 24 games in regulation while the Hurricanes have won 26.  They also have 14 games left.

Islanders go:                    Rangers need to go:
10-5   99 points               11-2-1   99 points
8-7     95 points                9-4-1     95 points
7-8     93 points                8-5-1     93 points
4-11   87 points                5-8-1     87 points

The Islanders are in free fall and have lost six games in  row.  They have won only two of their last 12 games.  If any of these teams is vulnerable right now, it’s the Isles.  They also play Carolina and Columbus one more time this season, but  they are done playing the Rangers.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Okay, before you think I am crazy including them, here’s why.  The Penguins sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division with a record of 39-23-6 and 84 points, eight points ahead of the Rangers.  They’ve been slumping, winning only two of their last ten games.   They have fourteen games left.

Here’s the key. The Rangers play the Penguins three times before the end of the season.  Let’s just assume that the Rangers win all three game, as unlikely as that may seem.  Here’s that scenario.

If the Rangers sweep, the Penguins will have a record of 39-26-6 with 84 points and  11 games left.  Add three wins over the Pens to the Rangers’ record and they will be at 39-28-4 for 82 points and 11 games left.  What’s crucial is the Rangers would own the regulation wins tiebreaker.

Now, what would it take to pass the Penguins if they sweep the three games:

Penguins go:                     Rangers need to go:
7-4   98 points                  8-3-0    98 points
6-5    96 points                 7-4-0     96 points
5-6    94 points                  6-5-0    94 points
3-8    90 points                 4-7-0     90 points

Of course, if the Penguins go completely south the rest of the season, it would mean that three teams of the four (Islanders, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, Rangers) would be able to sneak in so t he Blueshirts would have to do better than one of those teams.

Pessimism or optimism?

A pessimist would look at it and say there is little to no chance that all of these stars will converge and the Blueshirts are doomed to a mid-level lottery pick.  There’s no way that these teams will play sub-.500 hockey and the Rangers have shown no signs that they can win  twice as many as they lose.  In other words, after this past weekend, it’s over.

An optimist would look at these numbers and say that making the playoffs, while difficult, is do-able.  The Rangers need to go on a run and their competition needs to play mediocre hockey.  A real optimist would say that the Rangers are going to sweep the Penguins.

If there is one thing these Blueshirts have shown us this season, is to expect the unexpected.  Igor Shesterkin is back and although his cloak of invulnerability was pierced on Saturday, there is no reason to believe that he won’t get back on a winning track.  Mika Zibanejad will continue to work miracles and Artemi Panarin is on a mission.   Their biggest problem is that time is running out.

Until elimination day, the Rangers are in the playoff race.  Let’s be optimists.  Feel free to weigh in on what group you are in.