Playoffs or lottery pick? A tough choice

All signs are that the NHL is getting closer to deciding how to move forward when the season is able to resume.   The plans present an interesting conundrum for the New York Rangers and their fans.

A number of published reports indicate that the NHL is leaning towards not resuming the regular season, but instead will go right to the playoffs.  The format that they choose will affect the New York Rangers greatly and will determine whether the team gets a chance at a lottery pick or a postseason opportunity.

To their credit, the NHL realizes that it would be silly to finish the regular season and risk exposing players for teams that have no chance at the playoffs to COVID-19  To reassemble the New Jersey Devils or Detroit Red Wings to play meaningless games would be absurd. At the same time, the league doesn’t want to eliminate teams that were within a few points of a playoff spot from any chance at the postseason.

The format the league seems to be favoring is a 24 team playoffs with a best of three play-in round to start.  Whether any teams would get a bye from the play-in round is undetermined.

However, if you look at the standard playoffs format and want to end with the eight teams from each conference in the First Round, the top four teams from each Conference would have to be excused from an eight team play-in round where four teams would be eliminated.

Who gets in?

With 12 teams from each conference to participate, the question is how they would be selected.  Since teams have played an uneven number of games, they would probably go with points percentage.  Based on that criteria, the Rangers are in 11th place in the Eastern Conference.  They are in seventh place in the Metropolitan Division.

The two options are the top 12 teams in the conference or the top six teams in each division.  If participation is determined by conference, the Rangers are in the postseason with Detroit, Ottawa, New Jersey and Buffalo are on the outside looking in.

If the criteria is by Division, the Rangers are out of the postseason, replaced by Buffalo.

What do you want?

And that is the conundrum.  What’s better for the 2019-20 New York Rangers?  A best of three playoff series or what could be a one in eight chance at a top three lottery pick?

Something to consider.  If the league goes with point percentage for the top twelve tams in the Conference and  gives a bye to the top four teams, the Rangers would be ranked seventh of the play-in teams and would get to play the Carolina Hurricanes .  If the Blueshirts could get past the Canes, the Bruins or Lightning would be waiting to play a best of seven series.

There’s been some discussion that the league will go with regulation games points percentage, taking out games that went to OT or a shootout.  In that case, the Rangers finish tied with Toronto and Columbus for the third slot in the play-in and based on the tiebreaker, they could actually have home ice advantage in that round.  They could end up playing the Maple Leafs or Islanders in the play-in round.

A lot of questions

There are still many questions left for the league to figure out.  Will the teams prepare for the playoffs with an exhibition schedule?   Are the teams that get the the play-in round bye at a disadvantage having to resume play against teams that have already played two or three meaningful games?   Should they retain the Divisional format or just got with Conference rankings?   How will the draft lottery teams be determined?  Will the seven teams that don’t get the play-in round fight for lottery picks or will it be those seven teams along with the eight teams eliminated in the play-in round?

And that leave the New York Rangers are their fans with the same question that has dogged the team this season.  Playoffs or lottery?  The idea of a best of three play-in round makes it an even tougher choice and the order of the Entry Draft is key.

We’ll keep tabs on how the wind is blowing as the league gets closer to decision making time.

If faced with elimination in the first play-in round and no shot at the draft lottery or a one in seven chance at getting Alexis Lafreniere, this season’s consensus top pick, what would you choose?  Feel free to weigh in with your opinion in our comments section.