The Hartford Wolf Pack season is over and it is being lauded as an example of the New York Rangers successful rebuild. Not so fast.
One of the promises made by the New York Rangers was that as part of the rebuild, the team was going to revamp the organization on all levels. That meant scouting, player development and their top minor league affiliate, the Hartford Wolf Pack. On the surface it looks like an unmitigated success, but when taking a deeper look there are reasons to be concerned.
The AHL cancelled the rest of the season and playoffs, meaning that the Wolf Pack will finish in a virtual tie for third place in the Atlantic Division with 73 points, the same as the Charlotte Checkers who have played one fewer game.
Based on points percentage, the Wolf Pack had the 13th best record in the AHL, a marked improvement over last season when they had the 27th best record, only five from the cellar. That kind of improvement has brought accolades to the organization and new head coach Kris Knoblauch and Associate Head Coach Gord Murphy along with General Manager Chris Drury.
As much as the team has improved, it maybe premature to lay all of the credit at the feet of that trio. It’s probably much more appropriate to give the credit mostly to Igor Shesterkin and also to Joey Keane. If anything, those two players were the reason the Wolf Pack were so good. Take a look at these numbers:
G W – L – OTL PTS PCT
Overall record: 62 31-20-11 73 .589
With Shesterkin 38 23- 8 – 7 53 .698
Without Shesterkin 24 8 – 12 -4 20 .417
With Keane 41 28-13-10 66 .647
Without Keane 11 3 – 7 – 1 7 .319
That’s a huge difference. With Shesterkin on the roster, the Wolf Pack’s winning percentage was the best in the Eastern Conference by far, their .698 points percentage trailing only the West’s Milwaukee Admirals with .714.
Their .417 points percentage without Shesterkin would be the worst in the entire league.
Shesterkin vs. Huska/Berube
There’s no denying that Igor Shesterkin had fabulous numbers with the Wolf Pack. He finished with a 17-4-3 record, a 1.90 goals against average and .934 save percentage.
His record is even more unbelievable if you take out a two game stretch in December. The Wolf Pack lost back-to-back games to Charlotte by a combined score of 13-4. In those two games Shesterkin allowed eight goals on 42 shots in a little over 65 minutes of work. Take out those two games and it drops his GAA to 1.64 and his save percentage increases to .942.
The Wolf Pack used rookie Adam Huska and veteran J.F. Berube to replace Shesterkin or back him up. Their combined record was 12-14-6, with a 2.99 goals against average and a .892 save percentage.
How good was Shesterkin? In 25 starts he allowed two or fewer goals 17 times with three shutouts. Compare that to Huska who in 24 starts allowed two or fewer goals nine times. In Berube’s seven starts he allowed two goals twice.
After Shesterkin was promoted, the Wolf Pack allowed three or more goals 13 times in 18 games. That’s why they the Wolf Pack’s season ended badly.
A weak offense
Shesterkin’s brilliance covered up for the impotent Wolf Pack offense. Hartford scored 171 goals on the season, 20th overall in the AHL. Meanwhile, they allowed only 173 goals, tenth best in the league. The power play was a mess with an anemic 13.8% success rate. Meanwhile, the penalty kill was fifth best in the league with a 85.8% success rate. We all know the adage, a team’s best penalty killer is the goalie and in this case the goalie was Shesterkin.
There was no individual fire power either. Vinni Lettieri led the team in goals with 25, 10th best in the AHL. Next best were Tim Gettinger and Matt Beleskey, each with 16 goals. That tied for 60th most in the AHL. Lettieri’s team leading 47 points was 19th best in the league. Next was Danny O’Regan with 38 points, 60th best in the AHL.
It’s frightening to think of where the team would have been without Lettieri. He scored nine of the team’s 30 power play goals. The overall weakness of the forwards has to be seen as a development issue.