Finding a partner for Jacob Trouba is a priority

The top priority for the New York Rangers is finding a defense  partner for Jacob Trouba

Just a year ago, the New York Rangers pulled off a major deal, acquiring Jacob Trouba from the Winnipeg Jets for a first round draft pick and blueliner Neal Pionk.  The deal was greeted with enthusiasm and acknowledgment that the Blueshirts had gotten the top, shutdown defender they had been looking for since trading Ryan McDonagh.

One month later, the team inked him to a $56 million contract that averages out to an $8 million cap hit for the next seven years.  It was an affirmation of his status as the foundation of the Rangers defense through 2026.

To make matters even better, they had the perfect defense partner for Trouba in Brady Skjei, his close friend since they were teenagers and playing partner on the US Development team.  With Skjei under contract through 2024, the Rangers believed that their top defense pairing was set  for years.

What a difference a year makes

One year later and the plan has gone south.   While Skjei and Trouba played together, they were never the shutdown top pairing the team had envisioned.  It led to Skjei being expendable and his trade to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline for a first round draft pick.   While the move was mostly for cap purposes, the fact that Skjei was available demonstrated how deeply his value had dropped and that the Trouba-Skjei partnership was not he future.

Furthermore, the addition of Adam Fox and development of Ryan Lindgren was completely unexpected.  By the end of the season, that pairing of two rookies had become the top defensive duo on the team.  Add in the outstanding offensive showing by Anthony DeAngelo and the Rangers defense had a completely different look from the blueline corps the team had envisioned before the season.

By the end of the season, although Trouba was still playing heavy minutes, but he was hampered by a partnership with Brendan Smith and saw his minutes diminish.  He was still the shutdown defenseman on the penalty kill , but  he found himself on the second power play unit, supplanted by Fox on the top group.

While Trouba did nothing to dispel the notion that he was a top pair defenseman, the lack of a complimentary playing partner was a major issue.

The problem

Although this season is not over, the Blueshirts have to be looking ahead to next season.  While there is hope for a long run into the playoffs if they resume, the likelihood is that they won’t go far and it will be next season when the Rangers will be in a position to make hay in the playoffs.
In order to do that, the team <em>must</em> find a proper partner for Jacob Trouba.  Brendan Smith is not the answer.

The Rangers tried  pairing Libor Hajek and Trouba and they played over 236 minutes together at even strength.  The results weren’t great as their Corsi For percentage was the second worst of any defense pairing that played over 100 minutes together (according to naturalstattrick.com).  When they played together, they allowed a higher percentage of high danger scoring chances against them when paired together than almost any other blueline duo.

Much of this has to do with Hajek’s bad rookie season.  After an outstanding five game audition in 2018-19, he regressed this campaign and was ultimately sent down to Hartford, ostensibly for a conditioning assignment, but he was never recalled, even when Skjei was traded.

The bad news is that when Trouba was teamed with Marc Staal and Brendan Smith, the numbers were almost as bad.  In fact, the only defensive duo that featured a positive Corsi percentage was when Trouba was teamed with Ryan Lindgren. In the 65 minutes together at even strength, they generated more shot opportunities than they allowed.

Options

If the team believes that Jacob Trouba is their longterm answer as top defenseman, they need to find a partner he can grow and excel with.  The current options are very limited.

1.  They could team him with Ryan Lindgren, but they are clearly loathe to break up the Adam Fox-Lindgren partnership. It also creates a problem of finding a partner for Fox.
2. They could move Marc Staal up to the top pairing, a solution that is not the best option, but may be better than keeping Brendan Smith there.   Staal improved playing sheltered minutes on he third pairing and a move up could expose him.
3. They could try the Libor Hajek experiment again, hoping that his experiences in Hartford have helped him regain the promise that made him the centerpiece of the Ryan McDonagh trade.
4. The could try rookie K’Andre Miller as Trouba’s partner.  The team has stated that they are not going to rush him into the NHL so this is probably not an option, unless they show a chemistry in training camp.
5. They could try to find a partner for Trouba via free agency.   The free agent marketplace isn’t overloaded with lefthanded defensemen with the potential to play top pairing minutes.  The best of the bunch include Torey Krug and T.J. Brodie and they will be out of the Blueshirts’ price range.  There are some options that may be in their budget, including Joel Edmundson, Dmitry Kulikov (injury prone) or Brenden Dillon.   Compliance buyouts could result in some unexpected free agent availability and that is worth watching.
6. The team could trade some of their young defensive assets for someone who could help the team now.,  They are deep on the right side and trading Tony DeAngelo while his value is highest may make sense, especially if they feel that a youngster like Nils Lundkvist is ready to make the jump.   Or they could trade a top prospect like Lundkvist since they are set on the right side with Trouba, Fox and DeAngelo.  Of course, trading someone like DeAngelo or Lundkvist could come back to haunt the team in the future.

Regardless of what the team decides to do, they need to solve this problem before next season.  Trouba has a No Movement Clause that kicks in next season so if the team wanted to trade him, they would have to do it after this season is over.  The challenge is that his $8 million cap hit may be much too rich for any team to take on, considering the season he just had.

It’s an interesting problem for the Rangers.  Despite their vaunted depth at defense, they are a bit thin on theNHL level.  If Libor Hajek is not the answer, they will be forced to use Brendan Smith or promote an aging Marc Staal.   That’s why it’s essential for the team to make a move as soon as the offseason free agent/trade time frame is known.  The Rangers have much too much invested in Jacob Trouba to not fix this problem.