An analysis of the current defense and prospect pool

Analyzing the future of a deep defense corps

The New  York Rangers defense is an enigma.  While the Blueshirts are acknowledged to have some of the best defense prospects in hockey,  the NHL squad  has some huge questions marks and the team may have to look to acquire some help next year.

There’s another factor that will affect the development of their prospect pool.  With the continuation of the NHL season this summer, the Rangers schedule will not be sychronized with the schedules of the AHL, European or junior leagues. That could result in players getting experience in the minors and still having a chance to play in New  York next season.

The Rangers currently have 19 defensemen either under contract or unsigned.  Here’s a look at their current status, their prospects for next season and and a prediction of what their future holds.

The NHL defensemen

JACOB TROUBA – Right defense,  26 years old

Current status – Jacob Trouba was acquired a year ago in a trade with the Winnipeg Jets and the immediate projection was that the team had found the cornerstone of their defense for years to come.   The Rangers certainly believed that and proved it by signing him to a seven year, $56 million contract.

Trouba had a good, but not great season.  He played a lot of minutes and was their top penalty killer, but was hampered by the inability of the Blueshirts to find him a partner.  That was compounded when they traded away Brady Skjei, with whom Trouba formed his best partnership.  Trouba finished the season with seven goals and 20 points, a sizable drop off from his last season with the Jets.

The future – While his lengthy contract is seen as a guarantee that he will be a Blueshirt for years to come, this first contract year is the only one without a No Movement Clause, meaning that if the Rangers wanted to trade him, this would be the time to do it.  As outlandish as that may seem, the rise of Adam Fox and Tony DeAngelo has possibly made Trouba expendable.   Right now, he is still slated to be the top right side blueliner.

Prediction – Trouba is not going anywhere.  No one in the NHL will be willing to take on that $8 million annual cap hit and the Rangers want to keep him.  Although he didn’t have as great a season as he would have hoped, he also didn’t do anything in his first year to indicate that he won’t be the foundation for their defense and the player that the Rangers thought they were getting.

ADAM FOX – Right defense,  22 years old

Current status – Adam Fox will be in the second year of his Entry Level Contract, his $925k cap hit a bargain considering the season he had.  He exceeded all expectations this season and by the end of the campaign he had firmly established himself as the teams’ 1A defenseman, on a level with Trouba.

With eight goals and 42 points, Fox had even insinuated himself into the Calder Trophy conversation and he had taken over the lead role on the first power play unit.

The future –  Fox’s dream has been to be a member of the Blueshirts since growing up on Long Island.  He will have no salary leverage when he is a restricted free agent after the 2021-22 season.  He doesn’t have to be protected in the expansion draft and he could find himself the beneficiary of a big long-term contract at that time.

Prediction – The Rangers will seek to sign him to a long-term contract after next season.  He will have two years as a pro under his belt and if he surpasses his rookie output, the Blueshirts will do their best to lock him in as a Ranger for life with the potential of a team captaincy in his future.

TONY DEANGELO – Right defense, 24 years old

Current status – DeAngelo has finally chased most of the demons that have plagued him his brief NHL career.  Though he still has a propensity to get himself in trouble, he has now had two solid years in the NHL and this season established himself as one of the top offensive blueliners in the NHL.

DeAngelo finished with 15 goals and 38 assists for 53 points, third best on the team and fourth best among all NHL defenders.   DeAngelo signed a one year contract last fall for $925k when he had no leverage and is an arbitration eligible restricted free agent after this season.

The future – As arbitration eligible, DeAngelo will be looking for a big payday, especially since he has shown consistency for two straight seasons. The Blueshirts are tight salary-wise and may have to go through some machinations to find the money to pay  DeAngelo what he thinks he deserves.

With demand high for righthanded shooting defenseman, there is no doubt that the team will be open to anyone with an offer for him.  He could fetch a good price on the open market, but replacing him would be difficult.

Prediction – The Rangers will play hardball with DeAngelo and could very well end up going to arbitration.  Without a viable righthanded defenseman available to replace him the Rangers will look for a one or two year deal.  The key factor in DeAngelo’s future is the development of prospect Nils Lundkvist.  If  the Swede is ready to step up and make the big league club in 2021-22,  they will look to deal him then.   For now, DeAngelo will remain a New York Ranger.

RYAN LINDGREN – Left defense, 22 years old

Current status – After spending a full year in the AHL, Ryan Lindgren had an outstanding rookie year teamed with Adam Fox.  A feisty blueliner, Lindgren is the perfect stay at home partner to the offensively-oriented Fox.  Lindgren never hesitates to throw the big body check or protect his  teammates and is capable of chipping in with the occasional offensive foray. Lindgren is in the second year of his entry level contract at an annual hit of $925k and will be a restricted free agent in a  year.

The future – Although the Blueshirts will be able to control his salary after this season, they could look to lock him up long-term.  Although they experimented by breaking them up at times, the Rangers have a  rare opportunity to ensure that they have a defensive pair that they can count on for years to come.  It’s possible that the Fox-Lindgren tandem can grow into a defensive pair along the lines of Brian Leetch and Jeff Beukeboom or Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi..

Prediction – With the Rangers likely to try to lock up Adam Fox on a long term deal, they will seek to do the same with Lindgren.  Lindgren won’t be as expensive as Fox, but signing him long-term will guarantee that he and Fox will be patrolling the Rangers blue line  for many seasons as a pair.

MARC STAAL – Left defense, 33 years old

Current status – After this season, Marc Staal will be going into the last year of a  six year, $34 million dollar deal that the Rangers have lived to regret.  He remained reasonably healthy and chipped in with two goals and 11 points while averaging 17:39 minutes per game, fewest of his career.

Although Staal found himself benched for the first time in his 13 year NHL career, he appears to have found his stride this season playing sheltered minutes on the third defense pairing as the defensive conscience for Tony DeAngelo.

The future – Unless more than one compliance buyout is offered after this season, Staal should be a New York Ranger for one more year.  While he is likely to remain DeAngelo’s partner, coach David Quinn may team him with Jacob Trouba on the top pairing if Brendan Smith falters and his other options don’t work out.

Prediction – Staal will finish his career as a New York Ranger and will retire after next season.  He will be a steady presence on the  blue line, again as DeAngelo’s partner.  Even if he is a compliance buyout candidate, the team will keep  him.

BRENDAN SMITH – Left defense, 31 years old

Current status – Believe it or not, Brendan Smith is slated to be Jacob Trouba’s partner on the first defense pairing this postseason.  After spending most of the campaign as the spare seventh blueliner on the team, he was thrust into the high profile role after the trade of Brady Skjei.

Smith has reclaimed his value to team by proving to be a useful and versatile player and by never complaining and always showing a strong effort. whether it was as a fourth line winger or a penalty killing defenseman.  It was clear that he was a player that David Quinn liked and relied on.

Even so,  Smith is still capable of making bad plays and taking dumb penalties, qualities that have dogged him throughout his career.  For him to prove that he should stay, he will need to have the kind of performance this postseason that he displayed in the 2018 playoffs that resulted in the big contract that pays him $4.35 million per year.  He has one more year to go on that deal.

The future – If the team is allowed more than one compliance buyout, Smith is a surefire candidate to go.  If not, he will end up as either the first pair left defenseman unless the team is able to acquire a replacement for Skjei through trade or free agency.   If the team is in cap trouble and there are no compliance buyouts, he remains a candidate for a standard buyout.

Prediction – If there is a compliance buyout, the Rangers will use it on Henrik Lundqvist.  if they are allowed two, Smith will be t he second.  Smith is still slated to be Jacob Trouba’s partner although the team will do anything they can to try to find someone better.  If that happens, Smith will be a versatile seventh d-man and spare forward, a role that he is adept at.