Here comes the NHL Entry Draft lottery!

Can lightning strike twice for the New York Rangers?

It was just a little over 14 months ago when New York Rangers fans went beserk after the Blueshirts struck gold in the NHL Draft lottery, winning the second overall pick. It meant a chance to get Kaapo Kakko, one of the two crown jewels of the 2019 Draft.

While Kakko’s season wasn’t as thrilling as fans had hoped for, he still showed enough as a teenager to warrant optimism for a brilliant future in the NHL.  With a planned resumption of the season and the gift of a guaranteed spot in the qualifying round, Kakko will soon get a chance to strut his stuff in some high pressure games.

The 2020 lottery will take place this Friday in a convoluted process that could take weeks to conclude.  The good news is the Rangers have a shot at the grand prize.  That would be Alexis Lafreniere, the consensus top pick.

The 2020 lottery

When we said convoluted, we weren’t kidding.  The first 15 picks in the NHL Entry Draft will be determined in three to six drawings that could go one or two rounds.  The first round will be held this Friday, June 26.  The second round (if necessary) will be held between the best-of-five qualifying round and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  That should happen sometime after the Fourth of July.

Here’s how it works.  15 teams will be in the lottery drawing on Friday.  The seven teams that didn’t make the qualifying round will have the best odds of getting a top three lottery pick.  Those teams (best odds first) include Detroit, Ottawa, Ottawa (via San Jose), Los Angeles, Anaheim, New Jersey and Buffalo.

The remaining eight teams in the lottery will be the teams that lose in the qualifying round.

As usual, there lottery picks will be drawn using ping pong balls with the results weighted for the worst teams. The odds of getting the top pick for those seven teams range from 6.5% for Buffalo to 18.5% for Detroit.  The odds of one of those seven teams getting the top pick are 75.5%.

The eight remaining slots in the top 15 will be placeholders pending the second round (if necessary). They will be called Teams A-H.

That means the eight teams (A-H) that  lose in the qualifying round (could be the Rangers), have a 24.5% shot of getting a top three pick.

Here’s where it gets a little nutty.  If the top three picks all fall to teams in the bottom seven, there won’t be a second round and picks 4-15 will be assigned by points percentage to the remaining four non-postseason teams and the eight teams that lose in the first round.

If a postseason team (A-H) makes it into the top three, there will be another drawing that will include only the eight qualifying round losers for the whatever top three picks that were assigned to the placeholders.  Confused?

The Rangers’ odds

First off, let’s remember that the Rangers own two first round picks.   They have their own and the worse of the picks that belong to Toronto and Carolina.  What that means is that they can still get a lottery pick if they win in the qualifying round.

If the Rangers lose to Carolina, they will be eligible for a top three pick if any of them were awarded to the eight postseason teams.

Now, they do have another chance to get a lottery pick if they beat Carolina and Toronto loses to Columbus.  In that case, the Rangers would get the Toronto pick that would be eligible for a top three pick if any of them were awarded to the eight postseason teams.

But wait, the Toronto pick is conditional and they keep it if the pick is in the top ten.  So, in that case, the Rangers would get the Hurricanes’ pick.

It’s a real incentive for the Blueshirts to beat the Hurricanes and to root for the Blue Jackets to upset the Maple Leafs.

What are the odds?

So, there’s a 24.5% chance that a team that finishes 8-15th from the bottom will get the top pick, with those odds increasing for the second and third overall pick if a bottom feeder wins a top three pick.

When it comes to the second round, if the chips fall the right way and the Rangers beat Carolina and Toronto loses, the Blueshirts will have a 12.5% shot at getting whatever top three picks were won by teams 8-15.  If they lose to Carolina, they will still have that 12.5% chance.

No matter what, the Rangers have a better chance at a top three pick than if the lottery had been conducted the normal way.   With their points percentage, they would have had a 2% shot at the top pick.  In this scenario, they have a 12.5% shot at a top pick if they are in the second drawing (if there is one).

What’s crazy is if all three top three picks fall to teams 8-15, the Rangers could have a 37.5% shot at a top three pick, win or lose in the qualifying round.

A lottery history

Last season the odds that the Rangers would move up to the second pick were only 7.8%.   New Jersey won the top pick with 11.5% odds and Chicago moved up to third overall with only a 3% chance.

In 2018 the Blueshirts dropped from eighth to ninth overall as Carolina moved past them.

Their long stretch of making the playoffs meant no lottery for the Rangers for years.  In 2010,  the Rangers didn’t move, remaining in 10th overall .

Before that, the lottery was worth forgetting for the Rangers with the worst case in 2005.  Due to the NHL lockout, the lottery was weighted according to playoff appearances and first overall picks in the prior three years.  The Rangers were one of the three teams with the best chance of winning what was known as the Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes.   There’s no need to tell you who won.

How to watch

The NHL Draft Lottery drawing will held at 8pm EST on Friday, June 26.  It will be televised live on NBCSN in the United States as well as the NHL Network and Sportsnet in Canada.

Here is your rooting primer, in stages:

Stage 1:  Root for teams Team A through Team H to win one, two or all three of the top three picks.

Stage 2:  Root for the Rangers to beat Carolina and Columbus to  beat Toronto in the qualifying round.

Stage 3:  If the Rangers win and Toronto loses or the Rangers lose, they will have an equal chance to get any of the top three picks that fall to teams A-H.  At that point, you will just be rooting for the Rangers.