It’s the playoffs, forget the lottery and go for it!

The New York Rangers have a shot at the #1 pick in the NHL Entry Draft, but they have to lose to get it

Life is complicated, even more so if you are a fan of the New York Rangers.  While it would have made life much simpler if none of the placeholder teams had garnered a top three pick in the NHL Draft Lottery, the fact is the first pick is up for grabs and that pick could be a  game changer.

Blue Line Station conducted an unscientific Twitter poll to see how our readers feel about that pick and whether it is worth losing to get it.  The results?  A clear majority value the playoffs over a shot at the top pick.  59% of the 73 respondents want the Rangers to win in the qualifying round and go on to play in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  41% felt a shot at the top pick was a better option.

While that is a majority, the fact that four of ten folks who voted want the chance at Alexis Lafreniere is a substantial number.  That has to be based on the 12.5% shot at the top pick.  A one in eight chance at a generational player are odds that most gamblers would take.

How good is Alexis Lafreniere?

He’s good.  Really good.  He won CHL Player of the Year honors for the second straight season, joining someone named Sidney Crosby as the only player to accomplish that feat.   He scored 112 points in 52 games, the highest point per game rate since someone named Connor McDavid.  He was the QMJHL rookie of the year and won a gold medal at the WJC.  Oh yes, he was named the MVP of the tournament.

He is the consensus top pick in the draft and unlike last season, there is no one that is even being considered in his class.  Most experts rate him one level below the likes of McDavid and Crosby with the fact that he is a left winger and not a center one big consideration.

Lafreniere turns 19 in October and is already 6’1″ and 192 pounds.   He’s ready to play in the NHL.

The odds

What makes this season’s draft so interesting is how the odds of winning have been changed for the eight teams.  For the first time, all eligible teams will have an equal shot at the top pick, no matter how well they played in the regular season.  That 12.5% chance is better than the chances the Rangers have had for a top overall pick in  years.

Last season the Rangers had a 7.5% chance at landing the top pick and a 23.3% shot at a top three pick.  The Devils had a 11.5% shot at the number one pick and moved up and snatched it.

No matter how you look at it, the odds of the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup are much smaller compared to the odds of them winning the top pick. Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Rangers as a 43-1 pick to win  the Cup and 20-1 to make the Finals.   Compare that to the 7-1 odds of getting the top pick.

Where will they end up?

One thing worth considering is where the team will end up if they lose in the qualifying round, but lose in the lottery phase two. The Blueshirts ended up with the 13th worst points percentage in the NHL at .564.    Where the Rangers end up depends on how other teams do in the best-of-five qualifying round and the lottery.  Here are the options.

1. 13th overall – The Rangers stay where they are if Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota or Winnipeg win the top pick.
2. 14th overall – The Rangers slip one pick if Columbus, Toronto, the Islanders, Florida, Pittsburgh, Calgary, Dallas, Edmonton, Nashville or Vancouver win the lottery.

It’s a little different story when it comes to the pick they received from the Carolina Hurricanes in the Brady Skjei trade.  The Blueshirts get the higher of the two picks owned by Carolina. theirs and Toronto’s.  To further complicate matter, the Toronto pick is protected and they keep it if it ends up as the top pick.  What it means is that if the Rangers lose in the qualifying round, the odds are that they will get Carolina’s original pick.  The only way they get the Toronto pick is if both the Hurricanes and the Leats make the Playoff and Toronto goes deeper.

That means that if the Rangers lose in the first round they won’t know when the Carolina or Toronto picks will fall, because they will be based on how far those teams go in the Stanley Cup playoffs. A first round loss by both the Hurricanes and Toronto could mean a much higher pick then 23rd overall if there are upsets.   While that pick could be in the high teens, it will probably end up being a selection in the mid-twenties.

What to wish for

There is no doubt that 7-1 beats 40-1 in terms of odds. However, most Ranger fans believe that those 40-1 odds are nowhere near reality and with Igor Shesterkin in goal and the Rangers’ potent offense firing on all cylinders, the team could be the Cinderella story of the playoffs.

The bottom line is this is a good problem to have.  If qualifying round success eludes the Blueshirts, they are in the thick of the hunt for Lafreniere.  If they win and get into the playoffs, the youthful Rangers will be getting useful playoff success that will benefit them in years to come.

For most fans, two years of missing the excitement of the postseason is long enough.  If play resumes this summer, it promises to be the most unusual Stanley Cup Playoffs in history.

And what would be more unusual than a team defying 40-1 odds to win it all?  Well, the St. Louis Blues were 250-1 in January, 2019.  Just ask Scott Berry, who threw down $400 on the Blues in Las Vegas that month and walked away with $100k.

For all of you who voted for the playoffs over the lottery in our Twitter poll, please have no regrets if the Rangers lose early in the playoffs and a team like the Islanders or Edmonton walks away with the winning ticket in the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes.