Rethinking that trade of the top pick idea

The idea of the New York Rangers trading the number one pick if they get is probably a pretty bad idea if you look at history

A few days ago in a fit of insanity, I threw out the proposal that if the New York Rangers were unlucky enough to lose in the qualifying round, but lucky enough to win the draft lottery, they should think of trading the drafting rights to Alexis Lafreniere.  The idea generated quite a few comments with most folks against the idea while a few thought it had merit.

If you didn’t see the original article, you can read it here.

In a nutshell, the idea was that with the Rangers well stocked at left wing with Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, they should swap the top overall pick for Ottawa’s third and fifth overall picks along with defenseman Christian Wolanin with the Blueshirts including Alexandar Georgiev in the deal.

After getting all of the feedback, I thought it would be worth it to see if a  similar trade could have worked out in the past for other “generational players.”  We;ll just look at trading the draft picks, number one for numbers three and five.

We’re going to look at the players who actually went third and fifth in the draft, but threw in the names of some players who went later in the draft as well.  Here goes.

2016 – Auston Matthews

The last truly generational player in the draft was Auston Matthews in 2016.   The trade would have looked like this:

#1 Pick – Auston Matthews   for  #3 Pick – Pierre-Luc Dubois and #5 Pick – Olli Julolevi

While Dubois has turned into a fine player for the Blue Jackets, the Canucks picked Finnish defenseman  Olli Julolevi with the fifth pick and he has yet to make it to the NHL.  While hampered by injuries, he has been relegated to the AHL and has been passed by on the Vancouver prospect chart.  The verdict?  Hands down, no trade.   Would you do the deal if you could substitute Matthew Tkachuk who went sixth overall for Julolevi?  Nah.

2015 – Connor McDavid

There was actually some debate over the merits of Connor McDavid over Jack Eichel, but the entire hockey world came down in favor of McDavid.  He is the best player in the NHL and this is what the trade would have looked like:

#1 Pick – Connor McDavid for #3 Pick – Dylan Strome and #5 Pick – Noah Hanifin

Do we need to discuss this?  Strome was a bust in Arizona who has become a useful player in Chicago while Hanifin was traded by Carolina to Calgary for Dougie Hamilton.   The verdict?  It’s not even close.  No trade.

Here’s an interesting question. If you could take two of the following: Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner, Zach Werenski or Thomas Chabot, would you even think about the deal?  Just wondering.

2010 – Taylor Hall

While between 2010 and 2015 there were some fine players drafted first overall, like Nathan MacKinnon, Aaron Ekblad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, no one was a consensus first overall pick.  You have to go back to Taylor Hall in 2010 to find a player everyone assumed would go first.  The trade would have been:

#1 Pick – Taylor Hall for #3 Pick – Erik Gudbranson and #5 Pick – Nino Niederreiter

Both Gudbranson and Niederreiter have had long and successful NHL careers, but they’ve been good and not great players. Defenseman Gudbranson is on his fourth team while Niederreiter was traded by the Islanders to Minnesota and he now toils for Carolina.  Meanwhile Hall, though on his third team, won the Hart Trophy and is expecting a huge payday as the bet Unrestricted Free Agent on the market this offseason.  The verdict?  Again, a no brainer.  No trade.

Now, it’s another story if you look at some other players who went later in the draft including Vladimir Tarasenko, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Cam Fowler.  A combination of two of those players and you might be tempted to make the deal.

2009 – John Tavares

There was no doubt that John Tavares was going first overall to the Islanders.  It was a deep first round with the likes of Evander Kane, Victor Hedman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nazem Kadri taken.  Here’s what the deal would have looked llike:

#1 Pick – John Tavares for #3 Pick Matt Duchene and #5 Pick – Brayden Schenn

This is an interesting one.  While Tavares was the Islanders best player for nine years, they were a perennial bottom dweller and missed the playoffs in six of his nine years.  Brayden Schenn has developed into one of the best forwards in the NHL, especially after his trade from the Flyers to the Blues where he won a Cup last season.

As for Matt Duchene, he hasn’t become an elite center, but he is one of the better pivots in the NHL and was one of the most sought after free agents last summer.  He has scored 245 goals in his 11  years in the NHL, compared to Tavares with 345.

The verdict?  This is one where the Islanders would have been better off in the long run with the two picks, despite the excellence of Tavares.  Do the deal.

2008 – Steven Stamkos

There is no doubt that Steven Stamkos is one of the best centers in the NHL.  The only stain on his career is his lack of playoff success.  In 2008, there was no doubt that he was going first overall.

It wasn’t a great draft year, but there were some gems in the first round including Erik Karlsson at 15th overall and John Carlson at 27th overall.  Here is what the trade would have looked like:

#1 Pick – Steven Stamkos for #3 Pick – Zach Bogosian and #5 Pick – Luke Schenn

Bogoian and Schenn have both had long careers as serviceable NHL defenseman, but have had nowhere near the impact of Stamkos.   The verdict?  No trade.  One caveat, substitute Alex Pietrangelo went fourth overall and Karlsson or  Carlson and you end up with two outstanding blueliners who would anchor a defense for a decade.  In that case, it’s not such a no-brainer.

2007 – Patrick Kane

There was no doubt that Patrick Kane was going to be the top pick and he and James van Riemsdyk made NHL history with two Americans going as the top two picks in the Entry Draft.  While Van Riemsdyk has been an outstanding player, Kane has been a perennial all-star who has won the Hart, Calder and Ross Trophies while guiding the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups.  Here’s what the trade would have looked like:

#1 Pick – Patrick Kane for #3 Pick – Kyle Turris and #5 Pick – Karl Alzner

Is there any reason to discuss this?  Turris has been a solid forward and Alzner a steady defenseman, but Kane has been the very definition of “generational.”  You can look at the entire 2007 draft and be challenged to find two players who would be Kane’s equal, combined. The verdict?  Run way from this trade as fast as you can.

The draft is a crapshoot

Looking at the drafts over the last dozen years, it’s pretty obvious.  Go with the sure thing.  Generational players come along so rarely, it is ill advised to trade them even if the draft is as deep as the class of 2020.

There are rare cases where trading the top pick would have been the right call, but again, it depends on who you draft at third and fifth.  You never hear the expression, “he’s a consensus number three pick,” and it is rare when there is agreement about the top five picks.

Considering the track record when it comes to draft picks and the Rangers, there’s little faith that anything other than a generational sure thing will pan out.  Just ask Neil Smith about Pavel Brendl or Jeff Gorton about Lias Andersson or Glen Sather about Al Montoya.   Those are the three picks in the top seven the Rangers have had since 1999.  Let’s just hope that Kaapo Kakko is the real thing.

So. after considering history, what’s the verdict on a possible trade of the top pick if the Rangers are lucky enough to win it?   No trade.  Hands down.