Does the regular season record matter in a short series?
The New York Rangers swept their season series over the Carolina Hurricanes. Does it matter?
As the New York Rangers prepare for their qualifying round series against the Carolina Hurricanes, many give the Blueshirts the edge because they swept the season series. While the Rangers won all four games, it would be inaccurate to say that they dominated the series.
The real story was dominant goaltending as the Rangers were badly outshot in three of the four games. In the first three games, the Blueshirts outscored the Hurricanes 12-7 despite being outshot 132-68. Henrik Lundqvist stood on his head to get those wins with two of the games at Madison Square Garden.
The only really “good” win was the last one on February 21 when they won 5-2 behind Igor Shesterkin in Raleigh. In that game, the Blueshirts outshot the Hurricanes 36-29 and jumped out to a 4-1 lead and never looked back. They were led by Mika Zibanejad with a goal and two assists. Ironically, the game winning goal was scored by Brady Skjei who was traded to the Canes three days later.
Regular season vs. playoffs
So, how much does regular season dominance matter? After they returned from the lockout in 2004-05 the Rangers have played 22 playoff series, winning 10 and losing 12. We took a look at how the Rangers did against the teams they played in the regular season to see how it translated to the playoffs.
They played seven series against teams that they had a winning record over in the regular season. Their playoff record? 4-3.
They played seven series against teams they they had a losing record against in the regular season. Their playoff record? 2-5.
They played eight series against teams that they had tied in the regular season. Their playoff record? 5-3.
From these numbers it doesn’t mean much. While their record was better against teams that they beat in the regular season, it’s not by much. The one question is how much the Rangers all-time domination of the Hurricanes will affect Carolina mentally.
The Rangers have a stunning 30-6 record against the Hurricanes over the last nine seasons. Since 2006-07 they have gone 41-14-1. In fact, they last time they lost a regular season series to the Canes was in 2005-06 when they lost three of four. Psychologically, that has to mean something.
Being swept
Since the lockout, the Rangers have had one series against a team that swept them. That was in 2014-15 when they played the Tampa Bay Lightning who had won all three regular season games. We all remember that the Presidents’ Trophy winning Rangers lost to Tampa in seven games in the Conference Finals.
If playing a team that swept them in the regular season is something to avoid, this postseason they don’t want to play the Flyers (0-3), St. Louis (0-2), Vancouver (0-2) or Calgary (0-1),
Next, if you are superstitious, the Rangers sweep of the Hurricanes has some historical significance.
The last time
When was the last time the Rangers swept a team in the regular season and then went on to meet them in the playoffs? If you believe in omens, read on. The last time the Rangers faced an opponent that they had swept in the regular season was in the 1994 Stanley Cup playoffs. In fact, they played two teams that they had swept.
The Rangers had a 6-0 record against the New Jersey Devils before facing them in their epic Conference Finals series. They then went on to play the Vancouver Canucks in the Finals after having swept the two games that they had played against them in the regular season. Both series didn’t reflect the one-sided regular season records, but considering the outcome, does it matter?
So what really matters?
If the regular season record doesn’t mean much, there is one factor that is crucial in a playoff series. Winning the first game of a series usually translates into winning a series, even more so when it is a best-of-five.
Win the first game in a five game series and you win the series. The NHL had a seven year stretch with a best-of-five first round from 1980 to 1986. In those seven years the Rangers won the first game four times and won all four series. The lost the first game three times and won once.
How important is winning the first game of a best-of-seven series? Since the lockout the Blueshirts have played played 12 series when they won the first game and went 9-3 in those series. In the 10 series that they lost the first game? They won two of those series.
Historical data when it comes to hockey is usually reliable, but we may just want to throw everything out the window when it comes to this season. They are resuming play after a four month layoff with one warm-up game. They are playing in a neutral location with no spectators. They are playing with the specter of a virus that could knock entire teams out of the postseason. They are playing with expanded rosters. They are playing a best-of-five series for the first time in 35 years.
The bottom line in this most unusual season in NHL history is that this is uncharted territory and we have no idea what is going to happen. August 1 cannot get here soon enough.
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