Lafrenière vs Byfield: Who should the Rangers select at 1st overall?

Is there any merit to the left-wing heavy New York Rangers taking center Quinton Byfield at 1st overall?

In case you were under a rock and missed it, on Monday evening the New York Rangers won the lottery and the choice to select any player they want from a special 2020 draft class. The odds-on favorite is Canadian left wing Alexis Lafrenière, but there has been some speculation that the Rangers would consider trading back in order to select a center. The favorite to be the first center selected in Quinton Byfield of the Sudbury Wolves, who is widely viewed as the second-best player in the draft.  Given the comments made by Rangers President John Davidson and General Manager Jeff Gorton on winning the pick, the odds of them trading the pick are ridiculously slim. So real question is, will Gorton and company consider selecting Byfield over Lafrenière with the first pick? Let’s dive in.

What do the numbers say?

Byfield and Lafrenière both had really impressive statistical seasons. The 18-year-old Lafrenière finished the year with 112 points in 52 games, which put him at 2.15 points per game, while the 17-year-old Byfield put up 82 points in 45 games for 1.82 points per game. Lafrenière, it should be noted, is one of the oldest players in this class, while Byfield, still 17, is one of the youngest players in the class.

When Lafrenière was 17 years old, he put up 105 points in 61 games for 1.72 points per game. Byfield struggled at the U-20 World Junior tournament, but so did Lafrenière when he attended as a 17-year-old, so let’s just call that a draw. According to Byron Bader’s NHLe model, which translates points from junior and professional leagues to NHL points, Lafrenière had an NHLe of 46 points while Byfield had an NHLe of 45 points.

The difference in birth years makes comparing their numbers kind of difficult, but all of this does illustrate that Byfield is pretty close to Lafrenière’s statistical profile. The one thing this doesn’t account for is that, frankly, Lafrenière looked bored with his competition at times in the QMJHL. And no, I don’t mean lazy. I mean that he was bored with how much better he was than everyone.

What does the eye test tell us?

The biggest advantages that Byfield has over Lafreniére, other than position, are his size and skating ability. Byfield is a hulking 6’4″, hovers at around 220 pounds and is an excellent skater. He can just fly up the ice with ease and it is a part of his game that is simply better than Lafrenière’s. I do think Lafrenière is the stronger player on his skates, but Byfield is much faster. Despite Byfield’s size advantage, scouts generally do want him to use his physicality to his advantage more often.

Byfield and Lafrenière are relatively close to each other when comparing their puck skills, but I think I would give an advantage to Lafrenière in that department. His hands will be in the top 5% of NHL players, while Byfield’s hands are probably the status quo for elite prospects in that regard. Both players are very good goalscorers but in terms of pure goal scoring talent, I am going to give the advantage to Lafrenière. He could easily score 40+ goals at the NHL level.

The biggest advantage Lafrenière has over Byfield is that he is the smartest player in this draft. I resent the suggestion that Byfield is not a high IQ player, but Lafrenière is just at a totally different level. In fact, he is the smartest player to be drafted in quite some time. His vision and patience with the puck are absurd, as he rarely ever makes the wrong decision with the puck on his stick.

His hands are also so good that when a good play is not available, he can hold onto the puck for long enough to create a play on his own. And that is where Lafrenière’s real tangible advantage over Byfield lies, as he is just a flat-out superior playmaker and sees plays that nobody else does. So to sum it up, in terms of physical tools Byfield has a clear advantage over Lafrenière, but Lafrenière wins out in the puck skills, scoring, hockey IQ, and playmaking departments by varying margins. It’s fair to say Lafrenière is the more talented player at this point by a decent margin.

So what should Gorton do?

We took a look at Lafrenière and Byfield’s statistical profiles to see how they compare and what we saw was that Byfield compares pretty favorably. In terms of who the better player is right now, we have established that it is Lafrenière and even people who argue Byfield at 1st overall acknowledge that fact.

But Byfield’s real attractiveness lies in his upside. If he starts to use his physical attributes more often, that pushes him closer to Lafreniere. I really don’t think you can teach Lafrenière’s intelligence on the ice, it is truly a generational attribute, so I don’t think Byfield approaches his level of playmaking ability. That said, he is almost a full year younger than Lafrenière, so he has a lot of time to improve.

When I did my draft rankings earlier this summer, I wrote that there are two players who I could see surpassing Lafrenière one day: Quinton Byfield and Lucas Raymond. But there is a reason that I ranked both players behind Lafrenière, and that is the amount of certainty in their projection. I don’t think Lafrenière is a generational prospect like McDavid, but he is a step below, on the Matthews/Tavares/Stamkos level. I also think that he is ridiculously likely to hit his ceiling. I can’t say the same thing about Raymond or Byfield.

If you’re picking first overall, you simply have to get it right. The consequences if you don’t are disastrous, as we saw with Yakupov in Edmonton. Would Byfield fill the New York Rangers’ need for a center perfectly? Yeah, he really would. But you just can’t pass on a surefire star, and that is what Lafrenière is.

The Rangers are fortunate enough to have assets that they can move for a 2C. They also have a second first-round pick in this draft, which I am hoping they use on a center prospect. They also, if Lundqvist is bought out or retires, should have enough cap space to pursue players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Anthony Cirelli via the trade market or an offer sheet. So to me, Gorton’s solution is pretty simple. Draft the surefire star in Lafrenière now, figure out the center situation later.