Rangers should keep first overall pick barring a ‘Sensational’ offer

Imagine that trade going through.

The Rangers would add an established young player in Tkachuk and have a chance to grab one of the Ontario Hockey League’s best in either Quinton Byfield (a 6-4, 215-pound center) or Jamie Drysdale (a 5-11 puck-moving defenseman), or Central Scouting’s top-ranked European skater, Tim Stützle,  (a 6-1, 187-pound wing who can also play center).

Tkachuk carries a cap hit of $925,000 in 2020-21, the last year of his entry-level contract before he can become a restricted free agent.

With Tkachuk, the Rangers could use the money they’d otherwise have used to retain arbitration-eligible Restricted Free Agent (RFA) Brendan Lemieux and address other needs. By far the team’s most physical forward, Lemieux made $925,000 last season, the last of his Entry Level Contract (ELC). Evolving-Hockey.com (subscription required) projects Lemieux getting a two-year deal for $1.39 million per.

Close to a half-million dollars might not seem like much, but with a little more than $13 million in space under the NHL’s $81.5 million cap and several key free agents to address, every buck matters to the Rangers. Key free agents include puck-moving defenseman Tony DeAngelo and second-line center Ryan Strome (both arbitration-eligible RFAs), as well as versatile forward and team “good guy” Jesper Fast who is an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA).

According to Evolving-Hockey, DeAngelo stands a good chance at getting a five-year contract worth $5.7 million per (which aligns with Blue Line Station’s projection) while Strome is likely to seek (and get) a significant raise from his $3.1 cap hit of last season, his most productive in the NHL. The site’s contract projection for Fast is for three years at $2.9 million per.

So, again, how do the Rangers turn down that deal or something similar? I’d be tempted to take Tkachuk and the No. 3 pick in exchange for No. 1.

Why?

1. Lafrenière isn’t rated as highly as Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid were when they were prospects. Even if Lafrenière becomes Jonathan Huberdeau’s clone, as some from Central Scouting predict, it likely wouldn’t beat what a combination of Tkachuk and Byfield or Drysdale or Stützle could do for the Rangers. Huberdeau is solid, but he’s scored 30 goals once over parts of eight seasons and has 437 points in 536 games with the Florida Panthers. Matthews already has 285 points in 282 matches for the Maple Leafs, McDavid 469 points in 351 contests with the Oilers.
2. Byfield has been compared to future Hall of Fame Pittsburgh Penguins’ pivot Evgeni Malkin by one of the scouts for Central Scouting: “It’s funny how some guys easily remind you of another player. I see Malkin when I watch Byfield. I saw Malkin at the same age that Byfield is now; that tall, lanky frame combined with great hands and hockey IQ is similar. He also has that quiet competitiveness like Malkin. You see a player that has the potential to be a big, top-line center in the NHL. He shows leadership and character. He’s the kind of player any team would love to have.” The final report from Central Scouting reads: “Powerful skater with breakaway speed. Excellent puck-possession player with superior vision, creativity, and playmaking ability. Heavy, accurate shot that can overpower goaltenders. Physically ready for the pro game. Works hard all over the ice with relentless play and never gives up on a puck. Plays in all situations and can take over a game at any time.”
3. Central Scouting believes Drysdale compares favorably to Calder Trophy finalist Cale Makar, who is starring on the Colorado Avalanche’s blue line.  One assessment was that  “Jamie is an excellent skater who can drive the play and push the pace from the back end. He’s an excellent transition player, can make tape-to-tape passes on the fly, and presents a high-end offensive game and playmaking ability that make him dangerous every time he touches the puck. He makes good use of head and body fakes to evade pressure and shows the ability to lead the play up ice and gain offensive zone time for his team. He works the offensive blue line so well and his mobility puts himself in positions to get his quick-release shot off toward the net or in joining the attack as the late guy, making him a threat off the rush.”
4. Central Scouting’s final  report on Stützle compares him to Chicago Blackhawks star forward Patrick Kane and reads: “A playmaking hockey artist with a great set of tools including speed, dekes, stickhandling, shot and hockey IQ. Creates something positive on every shift.” Stützle, who was the Rookie of the Year in Germany’s top pro league last season, can become the third German-born and trained player selected in the top-10 of the NHL Entry Draft (with Leon Draisaitl, third, 2014, Edmonton, and Moritz Seider, sixth, 2019, Detroit Red Wings).
5. The Rangers won’t need to re-sign DeAngelo if they get Drysdale, or re-sign Strome if they draft Byfield or Stützle. That money can be used to keep Fast and proven young goalie Alexandar Georgiev in Ranger blue — and re-sign defenseman Ryan Lindgren and goalie Igor Shesterkin after the 2020-21 season when they’ll become restricted free agents along with Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden, Filip Chytil, and Julien Gauthier. And don’t forget, after the 2021-22 season, Mika Zibanejad can become an unrestricted free agent who will be looking for a contract extension. Better the Rangers get ahead of that by extending him after next season than entering a bidding war after he hits the open market. Also after 2021-22, Kaapo Kakko will be an RFA.

As for that potential trade with Ottawa, there’s still time for Melnyk to change (and/or lose) his mind and for another suitor to come calling. If not, the Rangers will pick first in the draft and hope Lafrenière doesn’t become the next Nail Yakupov, Patrik Stefan, or Brian Lawton.