Oops, that second Rangers’ first round pick may come later

The NHL uses a complicated format to determine draft position and that means the New York Rangers second first round pick will be 20th to 24th

Call it an epic fail, but Blue Line Station made a mistake when looking at the order for the NHL Draft.  We thought that the league would go with the points percentage format and Stanley Cup Playoff results in determining the order after the first round of the NHL Draft.   It now appears that the order will be selected in the traditional way and that means the Carolina pick owned by the New York Rangers could drop a bit, depending on how teams below  the Hurricanes in the standings do in the Second Round.

Here’s how the order of the draft is determined (with an assist from Wikipedia).

1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs including the teams that lost in the Stanley Cup Qualifier (picks 1–15)
2. The teams that made the playoffs, but did not win either their Division in the regular season or play in the Conference Finals (picks 16–23 up to 27)
3. The teams that won their Divisions, but did not play in the Conference Finals (potentially picks 24–27)
4. The teams that lose in Conference Finals (picks 28 and 29)
5. The team that was the runner-up in the Stanley Cup Finals (pick 30)
6. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 31)

It makes sense that the four teams that go deepest in the Stanley Cup Playoffs pick last.  It’s determining where the teams that don’t get that far will pick that there is an issue, especially in a season with inconsistent statistics.

In this system, the teams that finish first in their Divisions are punished more than teams that didn’t.  This incomplete season, the only team that was definitely going to win their Division in a full 82 games season was Boston.  The other “winners” were Washington (by one point), St. Louis (by two points) and Vegas (by three points).  In the case of the Blues, they played one more game than the runner-up Colorado Avalanche.

What it means is a team like the Islander can win one round of the playoffs, lose in the second round and pick higher than the Carolina Hurricanes, who lost in the First Round.  And that’s where the Rangers come in.

Although the Hurricanes were eliminated by Boston in the First Round, the Rangers will pick after the Islanders’ pick unless the Isles win in the Second Round and make it to the Conference Finals.

It’s even crazier when it comes to Dallas.  Even though they had more points than the Hurricanes (82 to 81) and have advanced to the Second Round, they are slated to pick ahead of them if they lose in the Second Round.    That’s because their winning percentage is .002 worse than the Hurricanes.

So what does it mean for the Rangers?

The one thing for sure, is we won’t know where the Blueshirts will pick until after Second Round is over.   At this point they can get the 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd or 24th pick.

The best case scenario is that Montreal, Vancouver, the Islanders and Dallas all play in the Second Round and win their series and go to the Conference Finals.  Then, the Blueshirts would have the 20th overall pick.

If Montreal and Vancouver lose in the First Round, the Rangers will pick 22nd only if the Islanders and Dallas make it to the Conference Finals. They will drop to 23rd or 24th if one or both of those teams lose in the Second Round.

The worst case scenario is that Montreal and Vancouver lose in the First Round or make it to the Second Round and lose while the Islanders and Dallas lose in the Second Round.  In that case, the Rangers would pick 24th.

To simplify matters, there is no way that they can pick after the seven teams that finished with a better winning percentage (Boston, Colorado, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tampa, Vegas, Washington).

They can pick after teams with a worse winning percentage that go deeper in the playoffs (Dallas, Islanders, Montreal, Vancouver)

Those four teams with a worse winning percentage will pick after the Rangers only if they make it to the Conference Finals (Round Three).

So, in order for the Rangers pick to move up this is what you need to do:

1. Root for Vancouver to upset the Blues
2. Root for Montreal to come back and beat Philadelphia.
3. Root for the Islanders and Dallas along with Montreal and Vancouver (if they make it) to win the Second Round and go to the Conference Finals.
4. You really want the Canucks to win since their pick is owned by the Devils.
5. At that point, you can resume rooting against the Islanders.

It’s important to note that the NHL has issued no guidance (that we could find) that there will be any change in the way the rest of the first round and the later rounds of the draft are to be conducted.

This season had teams playing an uneven number of games against an unequal slate of opponents and inconsistent home and away schedules so there is probably no way to make this work to everyone’s satisfaction.  The old system worked best with an even playing field, but if there is any better description of this wacky season, it’s uneven.

Sorry about the confusion.

Authors note:  As a reader pointed out, we should note that the Islanders first round pick is owned by the Ottawa Senators from the Pageau trade.  Also, the Vancouver pick is owned by the Devils as a result of the trade for Blake Coleman deal with Tampa (the Lightning acquired the Canucks pick in the J.T. Miller trade).  For what it’s worth, Ottawa also owns the picks from San Jose and Columbus.  The Devils own the Arizona pick.  Anaheim also owns the Boston pick and San Jose owns the Tampa pick.   None of this affects where the picks end up, that is based on the finish o the original teams.