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New York Rangers: How does Alexis Lafrenière compare to previous 1st overall picks?

By Will Wright

HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /
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Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White laughs with teammates following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red.
Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White laughs with teammates following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /

What is NHLe?  What is Game Score Value added, or GSVA?

NHLe, or NHL equivalency, is a statistical model that translates points in other leagues to NHL points using historical data. The NHLe model I am using was created by Byron Bader, who has a website called Hockey Prospecting (subscription required) . As an example of how the data is used, let’s take a look at Alexis Lafrenière. Lafrenière’s 112 point QMJHL season translates to 46 points over a full NHL season.  As a sidenote, Byron’s tool also gives examples of other players with the most similar statistical profiles. Lafrenière’s closest comparables are Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Alex DeBrincat, Mitch Marner, and Vincent Damphousse.

Game Score Value Added, or GSVA, is an all-in-one statistic created by Dom Luscyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required). The formula for this model assigns values of varying importance to different statistics, such as goals, primary assists, secondary assists, and so on. What I love about this statistic is that it is a middle-ground for people who enjoy macro-analytics but also think that results-driven statistics matter, such as goals and assists. In other words, if you are an excellent possession player but cannot finish or provide assists, you don’t get a free pass because ultimately the point of hockey is to score goals.

GSVA scores themselves are fairly simple to understand, so here are the different score tiers with a Rangers player who scores in each tier.

  • 3.75 or greater: A legitimate Hart Trophy candidate. Think Artemi Panarin
  • 3.0 to 3.75: An Elite player. Think Mika Zibanejad
  • 2.0 to 2.99: A top-line forward or top-pairing defenseman. Think Adam Fox
  • 1.0 to 1.99: A top-six forward or top-four defenseman. Think Chris Kreider
  • .5 to .99: Middle-six forward or borderline second-pairing defenseman. Think Jesper Fast
  • .01-.49: Bottom-line forward or bottom-pairing defenseman. Think Brendan Lemieux
  • 0: Replacement forward or defenseman. Think Julien Gauthier.
  • Below 0: Detrimental to the team, AHL level player. Think Brett Howden.

Whatever score a player has, all you have to do is double the number to find out the impact that player has on a team’s success. For example, if Mika Zibanejad posted a GSVA of 3.0, then that means his contributions win his team six standings points each season. If Brett Howden posts a GSVA of -.5, that means his contributions cost his team 1 standing point each season.

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