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New York Rangers: How does Alexis Lafrenière compare to previous 1st overall picks?

By Will Wright

HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – DECEMBER 28: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers during the third period at the Scotiabank Arena on December 28, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – DECEMBER 28: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers during the third period at the Scotiabank Arena on December 28, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Who are some of Lafrenière’s NHLe comparables?

Now that we have established what NHLe is, let’s take a look at how Lafrenière’s draft season compares to previous first overall picks going back to Patrick Kane in 2007. We will also throw in Jack Eichel since he would have gone first overall in all but three of these drafts.

2019: Jack Hughes, 50 NHLe points*

*Take this one with a massive pinch of salt. There is no reliable translation data of USHL points to NHL points since Hughes is the first to trek that path. Perhaps the model used Hughes’ totals against NCAA competition, but that was a VERY small sample size.

2018: Rasmus Dahlin, 31 NHLe points

2017: Nico Hischier, 32 NHLe points

2016: Auston Matthews, 66 NHLe points

2015: Connor McDavid, 63 NHLe points, Jack Eichel, 55 NHLe points

2014: Aaron Ekblad, 22 NHLe points

2013: Nathan MacKinnon, 36 NHLe points

2012: Nail Yakupov, 40 NHLe points

2011: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 38 NHLe points

2010: Taylor Hall, 46 NHLe points

2009: Steven Stamkos, 42 NHLe points

2008: John Tavares, 46 NHLe points

2007: Patrick Kane, 62 NHLe points

It is clear that four prospects here are clearly a cut above the rest: Patrick Kane, Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and then half a step below is Jack Eichel. If you have an NHLe of 60 or above, to me that means that you are a generational prospect. Then you move on to the Lafrenière tier. MacKinnon was days away from being eligible for the 2014 draft, so let’s bump him up. Hall, Tavares, MacKinnon, Stamkos, and Lafrenière make up the next tier. We won’t compare Lafrenière to Dahlin, but he should be included in that tier as well.

Hughes may have an NHLe of 50, but I do not trust that number because it is clearly based on his NCAA sample, which I mentioned is quite small. Let’s put Hughes on his own in the next tier below the one I just mentioned. Then below Hughes, you have the Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Hischier tier. Ekblad sits at the bottom of the barrel.

So just to clarify, here are our numbered tiers:

McDavid, Matthews, Kane, Eichel

Lafrenière, Tavares, Stamkos, Hall, MacKinnon, Dahlin

Hughes

Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Hischier

Ekblad

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