Blue Line Station
Fansided

New York Rangers: How does Alexis Lafrenière compare to previous 1st overall picks?

By Will Wright

HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
HAMILTON, ON - JANUARY 16: Captain Alexis Lafreniere #11 of Team White speaks with the media following the final whistle of the 2020 CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Red at FirstOntario Centre on January 16, 2020 in Hamilton, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 5
Next
TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 10: Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning celebrates his goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs with teammates Steven Stamkos #91 and Brayden Point #21 during the third at the Scotiabank Arena on October 10, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 10: Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning celebrates his goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs with teammates Steven Stamkos #91 and Brayden Point #21 during the third at the Scotiabank Arena on October 10, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /

How did Lafrenière’s closest comparables do in their first NHL seasons? What was their Game Score Value Added?

We have now established that Lafrenière’s closest forward comparables are Taylor Hall, Nathan MacKinnon, Steven Stamkos, and John Tavares. All four players are superstars and between them, they share a Hart Trophy (possibly two with how well MacKinnon has played), a Rocket Richard Trophy, numerous international Gold medals, and each player has worn a letter on their jersey. These players have all competed for scoring titles, and that is what I think the future holds for Lafrenière. But how did their rookie seasons go?

Stamkos, as many of us know, had a rocky start to his professional career, and Glen Sather claims he had a handshake agreement on a trade that would have brought Stamkos to New York during his rookie season. Stamkos put up 46 points in 79 games, which was a bit underwhelming but a good start to his career. Beyond the simple box stats, Stamkos contributed a GSVA of 0.72, which puts his rookie contributions at good middle-six value.

John Tavares is next in line and he had a strong rookie season, contributing 56 points in 82 games for a weak Islanders team. Just as his point totals indicate, Tavares provided solid second-line value for the Islanders, posting a GSVA of 1.17. Next up is Taylor Hall, who went first overall to the Oilers in 2010 and won the Hart trophy during the 2017-18 season. Hall had a decent rookie season, posting 42 points in 65 games for the tanking Oilers. His GSVA in his rookie season was 1.01, indicating he provided second-line value to the Oilers lineup.

Last but not least we have Nathan MacKinnon. I included MacKinnon in this group because even though his NHLe is lower than the rest, he was also a much younger prospect than the other players listed here and was arguably the most anticipated. He is now a front-runner for the Hart Trophy and a perennial contender for the scoring title. MacKinnon had an excellent rookie season on a middling Avalanche team, posting 63 points in 82 games. He posted a GSVA of 2.14 in his rookie season, which is first-line value and by far the best of this group of players.

Home/Analysis