New York Rangers: How does Alexis Lafrenière compare to previous 1st overall picks?

So what can New York Rangers fans realistically expect out of Lafrenière in his rookie season?

The hardest part of this comparison is predicting the role that Lafrenière will play on the Rangers. If he was a right-winger he would step into the top-six immediately, but he joins a very strong left-wing unit. My guess is that Quinn will only be able to keep him there for so long, but that’s just conjecture at this point. Some have argued that this strong competition may limit his rookie year production. Conversely, Lafrenière coming into a playoff-contending team is an excellent situation for him and may result in much better results since he will have more support than the other players in his tier did during their rookie seasons.

For the sake of the argument though, let’s assume Lafrenière earns himself a top-six role early on in the season. The easiest way to predict what Lafrenière’s impact will be is as simple as taking the averages of the data we have here. Let’s start with the projection of the points using points per game (ppg).

Steven Stamkos: 46 points in 79 games = .58 ppg

John Tavares: 56 points in 82 games = .68 ppg

Taylor Hall: 42 points in 65 games = .65 ppg

Nathan MacKinnon: 63 points in 82 games = .77 ppg

That results in a points per game average of .67, which translates to 55 points over an 82 game season. Next, let’s do the same method using GSVA. For this example, we will also use Rasmus Dahlin because GSVA levels the playing field for defensemen.

Steven Stamkos: .72 GSVA

John Tavares: 1.17 GSVA

Taylor Hall: 1.01 GSVA

Nathan MacKinnon: 2.14 GSVA

Rasmus Dahlin: 1.54 GSVA

The average GSVA of those five players is 1.32, which is a very strong second-line value and lines up pretty much perfectly with the predicted surface level production of 55 points in 82 games. I honestly think that is a very realistic prediction for Lafrenière’s rookie season. While he is not McDavid, he is an amazing prospect, and Rangers fans have every right to be excited about him and the impact he will make on the rebuild.