Long term salary cap issues facing the Rangers

While some big New York Rangers contracts come off the books after next season the salary cap is still a problem

New York Rangers fans have been waiting for the 2021-22 season as the year that the team will have true salary flexibility.  That’s when the contracts of Henrik Lundqvist, Brendan Smith and Marc Staal all expire.  Not only that, but the cap hit from the buyouts of Dan Girardi and Kevin Shattenkirk drops to $2.5 million from $7.5 million the year before.

Add up all of that cap relief and it means that Jeff Gorton will have  about $23.6 million nore to play with than he had in the 2020-21 season.  Great news, right?  Yes, it is great news, but he will need every penny since the 2021-22 season will kick off a period when he will have to negotiate some very dangerous budget straits.

The challenge in 2021-22

The top priority next summer for the Rangers will be Mika Zibanejad.  His five year deal expires after the 2021-22 season, but Gorton will need to get him to sign an extension before that season begins or else he will be in facing a John Tavares/Taylor Hall scenario.  If the Swede puts together another season next year like this season, he will be looking for a payday north of $10 million.  While that won’t kick in until the 2022-23 season, it will have long-term implications on the salary cap.

After Zibanejad, next summer Gorton will have to decide what to do with players with expiring Entry Level Contracts (ELC’s).   It’s an impressive list:

• Pavel Buchnevich (arbitration eligible)
• Igor Shesterkin
• Filip Chytil
• Julien Gauthier
• Brett Howden
• Ryan Lindgren
• Lias Andersson
• Libor Hajek
• Yegor Rykov

Except for Buchnevich who can go to arbitration, the rest of the players have little flexibility and could be signed to the league minimum, but this is an opportunity to get developing stars like Shesterkin and Chytil to sign long-term for a reasonable salary.  Stringing players along at the minimum puts the Blueshirts in a similar situation they are facing this off-season with four key Restricted Free Agents, all coming off solid seasons and eligible for arbitration.

What Gorton should want to do is what the Devils did with Nico Hischier.  He signed a seven year, $50.75 million contract in October that kicks in next season.  The contract has an Average Annual Value (AAV) or $7.25 million.   Locking him in through the 2026-27 season at that rate will likely be a bargain.  Did they have to do it?  No. Hischier wouldn’t have been eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency until after the 2023-24 season, but this deal keeps him in at a reasonable rate three years past that.

From that list of expiring ELC’s you could see Gorton trying to lock in Shesterkin and Chytil into long deals if they progress as expected next season.

It gets worse in 2022-23

If the 2021-22 class of expiring ELC’s is impressive, 2022-23 is just as imposing.  Three of the baby Rangers who will be the foundation of the team for years to come will be coming off their first contracts.  Gorton will be facing a decision regarding Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov and Adam Fox and will no doubt try to sign at least Fox and Kakko for the maximum eight year length knowing that whatever they make, it will be a bargain in just a few years. If  Kravtsov establishes himself as the player the Rangers believe him to be, they will be looking to lock him in as well.

According to capfriendly.com, the New York Rangers will go into the 2021-22 season with about $45 million in cap space and $52 million in 2022-23.  If Zibanejad signs a deal with a $10 million AAV and Gorton can get Shesterkin, Fox and Kakko to sign for $6-8 million each, that will pretty much eat up  much of the budget.  Let’s not even think about Alexis Lafreniere who if drafted will come off his ELC in 2023-24.  Let’s just say, for Gorton it will be a challenge.

Good news

There are some positives to look forward to.   The cap projections for the next few years are based on a flat cap of $81.5 million.  Although the cap will remain at that level next season, it should go up incrementally in 2021-22 and make a big jump in 2022-23 when the NHL gets their new television deal.  That will give all teams some additional cap flexibility.

While the Rangers will do their best to get their stars under contract long-term, it’s important to remember that NHL players don’t become UFA’s until they have played seven years in the NHL or have turned 27 years old.  That means that teams can play a game of chicken with their RFA’s instead of locking them in.  That’s not advisable , but it may be the only option.