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Expectations of the New York Rangers young guns

By Jason Katinas

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 29: New York Rangers center Filip Chytil (72) celebrates goal as New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox (23) congratulates him during the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers NHL game on October 29, 2019, at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 29: New York Rangers center Filip Chytil (72) celebrates goal as New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox (23) congratulates him during the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers NHL game on October 29, 2019, at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Filip Chytil, Brett Howden & Brendan Lemieux (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
Filip Chytil, Brett Howden & Brendan Lemieux (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

What to expect from the New York Rangers youngsters?

The New York Rangers are a young team. Even with Henrik Lundqvist (38), Marc Staal (33) and Brendan Smith (30), the team had a an average age of 25.7 years, second youngest team to play in the Stanley Cup Qualifier. Only the Chicago Blackhawks iced a younger team (25.6 years old).

With two first round draft picks (including the first overall) and many youngsters looking to make their NHL debut, the team is due to get even younger. The Rangers, as an organization, have 32 players under contract headed into the 2020-21 season.  Of those contracts, 24 are Entry Level Contracts (ELC). Additionally, the Rangers own the rights to seven restricted free agents, five of whom are currently aged 24 years or younger.

With all this youth comes expectations. Many are unrealistic as players are compared to the legends that played before them. Prospects and young players are referred to as generational or franchise players.  Others as can’t miss talents or labeled as top six forwards or top pairing defensemen.

The truth is that most prospects and young players do not live up to the hype, especially in the early days of their career.  Player development takes time and no two players develop on a equal time frame. Patience is required, but so are realistic expectations.

Since the beginning of the cap era in 2005, only four players have posted a point per game average in their first NHL season. Only nine players have reached the 30 goal plateau. Conversely, 288 out 1,708 players who made an NHL appearance, failed to appear in a second season (16.8%). An additional 113 players would not see a third season (23.4% of the whole).

A players performance cannot be accurately judged based on expectations. A comparison to their peer group and tracked for growth is more efficient. The following analysis reviews the averages of all first, second and third year players for the seasons dated 2007-08 to 2019-20 (based on the availability of the statistical data) who appeared in a minimum of 10 games.

All statistical data was pulled from Stathead Hockey, Hockey Reference’s reporting tool. To keep all of the data consistent, the analysis followed the statistical rules as displayed by Stathead Hockey. As such, the first “year” of a players career is the season in which they debuted, regardless of the total games played for the season. Therefore, a player appearing in just one NHL game during a season constitutes a year played for that player.

As an example, Ryan Lindgren is considered a second year player as he debuted in 2018-19 with five games. Let’s dive in …

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