Trading top drafts picks hasn’t been a good idea
The New York Rangers have not had much success when trading top draft picks
With just over two weeks until the NHL Entry Draft, there is speculation about teams trading top picks. Those rumors include the New York Rangers with the possibility that they may be offered a boatload of assets in exchange for their top overall pick.
The Rangers have traded twice into the top seven in the draft and in both cases the results have not been great. in 1999 they traded for the fourth overall pick and selected Pavel Brendl, notable as one of the biggest draft busts of all time. In 2017 they traded to get the seventh overall pick and drafted Lias Andersson. That has not worked out well, but the jury is still out.
In this salary cap era when talented young players are more valuable than ever due to their salary-controlled status, there have not been many trade of top picks. Prior to the 2004-05 lockout the trading of top picks was much more common.
In fact, the seventh overall pick the Rangers traded for in 2017 was the only time a top seven pick has been swapped just before the draft in the last 11 years.
There have been three top seven picks that changed hands in that time, but they were made before the teams knew where they would end up picking. Ottawa ended up with the third pick this year in the Erik Karlsson deal. Last season Colorado lucked into the fourth overall pick (Bowen Byram) as a result of the trade of Matt Duchene to Ottawa. In 2010, the Boston Bruins got Toronto’s first round pick in the Phil Kessel deal and it turned out to be second overall and they picked Tyler Seguin.
In 2008 there were a flurry of trades at the draft involving the Islanders. They ended up with the ninth overall pick and two second round picks, sending their fifth overall pick to Toronto. How did that work out? Toronto drafted Luke Schenn who has been a productive defenseman (and is currently playing for the Stanley Cup with Tampa). Nashville acquired the seventh overall pick and selected Colin Wilson who is still in the NHL with Colorado, but has not been a star.
The Isles picked Josh Bailey ninth overall and he is still a key player with the team. With their second round picks they selected Aaron Ness who didn’t work out and Travis Hamonic, one of the better defensemen selected that year.
The verdict on the 2008 trades is that there was no clear winner as all teams involved ended up with solid NHL players, but no stars.
Quantity over quality
In 2004, the Columbus Blue Jackets went for quantity over quality when they traded their fourth overall pick to Carolina for their first pick (eighth overall) and a second round pick (59th overall). That was not a wise choice. The Hurricanes picked Andrew Ladd who has played almost 1,000 NHL games while Columbus ended up with winger Alexandre Picard who played 67 NHL games and second rounder Kyle Wharton who never made it to the NHL.
A #1 pick traded
There was a huge draft day deal in 2003 with the Florida Panthers sending the top overall pick to Pittsburgh for their third overall first round pick. The Penguins sweetened the pot, adding a second round pick and forward Mikael Samuelsson. The Penguins got the top pick and a third round pick.
Call this a home run for the Penguins. They selected goalie Marc-Andre Fleury and forward Dan Carcillo with the third round pick. The Panthers drafted Nathan Horton third overall and Stefan Meyer with the second round pick. We all know what Fleury has done with the Penguins and Golden Knights. While Horton did score as many as 27 goals for the Panthers, he never developed in the star player they thought they were drafting and left winger Meyer (#55 overall) played all of 20 games in the NHL.
Of course, observers point out that the Panthers had Robert Luongo so they were set in goal, but how much better off would they have been if they had kept the first pick and drafted Eric Staal who went second overall to Carolina. Then again, they drafted Nathan Horton and passed on future stars like Corey Perry, Dion Phaneuf, Brent Seabrook and Jeff Carter.
Even up
There was a similar deal in 2002 that worked out well for both teams. Florida was involved again, sending their top overall pick to Columbus in exchange for their third overall pick. In this case, Florida wanted defenseman Jay Bouwmeester and Columbus wanted winger Rick Nash and the deal made that a reality. it’s also worth noting that Florida sent two picks to Atlanta who was picking second and they promised to not draft Bouwmeester.
While many Florida fans would argue that the team should have kept the first pick and selected Nash, you cannot argue with their pick of Bouwmeester who has been a top NHL defenseman for 17 years.
No great shakes
There was another quantity over quality trade that year when Tampa swapped the fourth overall pick to Philadelphia. The Flyers gave up forward Ruslan Fedotenko and two second round picks in exchange for that top pick and they then selected defenseman Joni Pitkanen. The Finnish defenseman played nine years in the NHL, but was just a better than average NHL defenseman. The draft picks Tampa acquired were traded in other deals, but it was Fedotenko who played a key role in the 2004 Stanley Cup championship Tampa team.
An Islanders disaster
In 2001, the Islanders had the second overall pick and packaged it to Ottawa in one off the worst deals in team history. The Islanders acquired Alexander Yashin who was going to be the next Islanders superstar. Yashin had been suspended for the entire1999-2000 season due to a contract dispute and had come back to score 40 goals. The Fishsticks traded for him and he signed a massive 10 year, $64 million contract.
The Islanders gave Ottawa defenseman Zdeno Chara, forward Bill Muckalt and the first round pick who turned into Jason Spezza. We all know how that has turned out for the Islanders. They had to buy out Yashin in 2007 and he was a $2.2 million dead cap space hit for the next seven years. Chara is a legend that Ottawa allowed to escape via free agency. Muckalt was a marginal NHL player.
Spezza was a true second overall pick, playing seven full seasons in Ottawa and averaging a point a game in his career there. No one drafted after him in 2001 has scored more career goals than Spezza.
Conclusions
Looking at the last 20 years, it’s tough to say whether trading a top pick will pan out. In cases where teams went for quantity over quality, the results are mixed. Perhaps the key question is the quality of the team’s scouting staff. Bad picks will doom any deal.
The one sure thing is that top picks, especially first overall picks, will end up becoming stars (Nail Yakupov aside). Trading a sure star, especially one seen as generational as Alexis Lafreniere is a dubious proposition.
Even trading for established talent can backfire as in the case of the Islanders’ trade for Alexei Yashin. Then again, the fact that Mike Milbury included Chara in the deal is unbelievable.
There is no way of knowing what assets rival general managers are dangling in front of Jeff Gorton. You can be sure that the proposals will get sweeter as we get closer to the draft. The safe choice is to keep the pick, draft Lafreniere and add a future superstar to a loaded roster. History seems to indicate that that’s the wise choice.
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