Analysis of what the Marc Staal trade may mean

The trade of Marc Staal may have a domino effect on the New York Rangers postseason

The Marc Staal trade took everyone by surprise.  Limited by a No Movement Clause, there was no hint that the New York Rangers were going to be able to move him.  There was no doubt that they wanted to rid the team of his onerous $5.7 million cap hit, but a trade didn’t seem possible after 13 years in New York.  The only possible options were reunions with his brother Eric in Buffalo or Jordan in Carolina, but neither team seemed to be possible destinations.

Here’s the official statement from the team:   Team President John Davidson said “The success we had throughout Marc’s tenure, including a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, would not have been possible without his tireless efforts on and off the ice,”

General Manager Jeff Gorton said  “The respect we have for Marc is immeasurable, and we wish him and his family all the best.”

Why they did it

First off, let’s just make this clear.  This was a salary cap dump.  What’s interesting is that the Blueshirts were able to persuade Staal to agree to the deal.   For cap purposes, it’s huge.  The Rangers buy back $5.7 million in cap space, giving them $20,091,867 in cap space even before a possible buy out of Henrik Lundqvist.   The Rangers now have the seventh most cap space in the entire NHL.   If they buy out Lundqvist, it will give them an additional $3 million giving them more cap space than 26 other NHL teams.

Not a great hockey deal

Let’s also get this on the record. While it’s a great deal for cap space, they paid a high price.  A second round draft pick is a steep cost and you can be sure that the future considerations are not going to be a windfall.   We won’t know for a months about what those considerations may be, but they could be tied into performance targets for Staal with the Red Wings.  At best, it will be  a marginal player or a late round draft pick.

Defensive needs

With Staal gone, the Rangers are getting thin on the blue line.  Brendan Smith is already penciled in as Jacob Trouba’s partner.  The Adam Fox-Ryan Lindgen tandem is set.  Staal was going to be teamed with Tony DeAngelo on the third pairing.  It’s clear that Jeff Gorton will prioritize finding a left-shot defenseman to play with Trouba. That would allow Smith or Libor Hajek to play third pairing minutes.

It also looks like the Rangers are clearing cap space to sign their own Restricted Free Agents.  That would include Tony DeAngelo, though with Nils Lundkvist waiting in the wings, a one year extension seems likely.

The intangibles on defense are K’Andre Miller and Yegor Rykov.  Miller was reportedly very impressive when he worked out with the team in July during the Return to Play and Rykov is playing top minutes for CSKA Moscow,  one of the best teams in the KHL.  Throw Hajek into the mix and the Rangers have three young lefty defensemen who can fit into the third defense pairing.

So, Jeff Gorton has to be looking for a lefthanded defenseman to play with Jacob Trouba in a potential trade or via free agency.  That will be worth watching.

More transactions?

This off-season more than any other, cap space is the greatest asset for any NHL team.  Now, Gorton has found  himself in position to be a player when it comes to free agents or trades.  The team’s biggest question has to be whether they consider Ryan Strome to be the answer as second line center.  If they believe it, they will try to sign him to a multi-year contract.  If not, they may not even give him a qualifying offer making him a free agent.

In a previous post, we discussed the financial issues facing all NHL teams. While the Rangers have deep pockets, making the playoffs will be a priority this season with the hope that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over and fans will be allowed back into arenas.   The later the season goes, the more likely that is, so the playoffs take on even more importance.

Face it, all of the talk about keeping the rebuild on target is lip service when it comes to money.  The Rangers are in a “win now” (or next season) mode and any moves they make will be with that in mind.

They may not think that they are ready to win the Stanley Cup, but a deep run in the playoffs has to be what they want as soon as 2020-21.   The good news is that they have enough youth on the roster that it won’t hurt the team long term and getting Alexis Lafreniere in the draft only accelerated that mindset.  No matter what, the future is now.

Buyouts?

The Lundqvist buyout is still supposed to happen, though Darren Dreger of TSN reported this week that the Rangers have not made a decision yet.   In his report he said that there is no trade interest in Lundqvist and  a buyout is the only option for the Rangers unless they want to keep him.

The Staal trade makes life more interesting.  With the additional cap space the team may decide that they will try to keep Lundqvist and look for a taker for Alexandar Georgiev.   The buyout window closes on October 8 and if any Ranger decides to go to arbitration a second buyout window would open later in the month.

At any rate, a Lundqvist buyout is still likely, though the Rangers have bought some flexibility and time.

Staal’s future

The Red Wings are under no obligation to actually keep Marc Staal. They could opt to buy him out and make him a free agent. They have the cap space to do it and are already set on the left side of their defense.  Not only that, with the flat salary cap, there are reports that they are one of the few teams that can afford UFA Torey Krug.

If Steve Yzerman can get Krug, consider a Staal buyout very likely.  In a totally bizarre twist, there is nothing to prevent the Rangers from signing him as a free agent for a reasonable salary and reinstate him on the Rangers blue line.  Doubtful, but crazier things have happened.  In 2018, the Capitals traded Brooks Orpik to Colorado who bought him out and he turned around and signed with Washington.

It’s worth considering that the Red Wings made it clear to Staal that they are buying him out, making a free agent.  That’s one reason he might have been willing to waive the No Movement Clause.  Kevin Shattenkirk’s Stanley Cup saga with the Lightning could be motivation for a veteran like Staal.

More to come

With this trade, it kicks off what will be a very busy few weeks for Jeff Gorton and the Rangers brain trust.  Jim Rutherford of the Pittsburgh Penguins ha been very busy already, making three trades involving ten players and two draft picks.  With teams facing little flexibility, getting into te trade market early is important.

There is no doubt that Gorton has some irons in the fire and we should all wait for the next shoe to drop.   It could happen in hours or in days.   If he has free agent targets, that could take longer as general managers will be looking to see how the salary cap is affecting the marketplace.

Stay tuned.