Could Jeff Gorton pry Mattias Ekholm away from the Predators?

The New York Rangers still have defense issues and there could be a solution in Nashville

Although it appears that the New York Rangers roster is set for the 2020-21 season, there are still some question marks.  After the three game sweep by Carolina in the Stanley Cup Qualifier, Jeff Gorton and John Davidson declared that the Rangers needed to be harder to play against.  Davidson has already commented about the Blueshirts’ penalty kill and the need for improvement.  The big issue that still looms in on defense.

Right now, the Rangers will be going into the news season with the same defense corps, minus Marc Staal.  Substitute Jack Johnson for Staal and that’s it for changes.   Veteran Tony Bitetto was also signed, but looks to be a depth addition.  While Davidson extolled Johnson’s penalty killing ability, the two new faces don’t resolve the biggest issue facing New York, a partner for Jacob Trouba.

After the Entry Draft, Jeff Gorton hinted that they may try Ton DeAngelo on the off-side and it looks like Libor Hajek and K’Andre Miller will get a long look.   If that doesn’t work, the first pair on defense looks to be Trouba teamed with Brendan Smith.  That’s the same Brendan Smith who couldn’t crack the top six until Brady Skjei was traded.

Making the situation more dire is the likelihood that the season will be abbreviated.  That means there will be little time for experimentation and teams will have to get off to a fast start if they want to contend for the playoffs.   A short time frame doesn’t bode well for the team to be trying out players on Trouba’s left side.

There’s another factor that makes a trade solution unlikely, the Rangers’ dire cap situation. If the Rangers want to trade for another defenseman, it means shedding salary and the only option is to include Brendan Smith.

The trade

Mattias Ekholm is a veteran defenseman on a reasonable contract who could step in as Trouba’s partner on day one.  He won’t come cheap, but in exchange for a first pair d-man the Rangers should be prepared to ante up especially if the Predators are willing to take on Brendan Smith’s contract.

It would make sense for the Rangers to deal from strength so the offer should be Brendan Smith, a third round 2021 draft pick (the Rangers have two) and give the Predators their choice of Nils Lundkvist or Zac Jones.

Yes, it’s a steep price, but the Rangers have a surplus of defense prospects and although Lundkvist is highly regarded, he is behind Trouba, Fox and DeAngelo on the right handed depth chart.  The Blueshirts also have high hopes for Brandon Schneider, the right-shot defenseman they took in the first round of the draft last month.  By giving the Predators a choice, Nashville could take Lundkvist a right-shot or Jones, a left-shot who is starring for UMass.

Why Mattias Ekholm?

Mattias Ekholm is a left shot, 30 year old blueliner from Sweden. Drafted by the Predators in the fourth round of the 2009 draft, he’s a veteran of seven full NHL seasons.  He’s not a big offensive threat, better known as a stay-at-home, physical defenseman.  He’s got the size, at 6’4″ and 215 pounds.

He eats minutes, averaging over 23 minutes ice time for the last four years.  His career high in goals is 10 two seasons ago and he is consistently around the mid-thirties in point production.  When it comes to possession stats, he’s never been below a 50% Corsi For percentage in his career. Only three forwards and one defenseman (Adam Fox)  on the Rangers was above that mark last season.

How strong is Ekholm on defense?  He has been consistently first or second pair for the Predators.  In 2018-19 he was chosen by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) as the recipient of the Rod Langway Award, a mid-season award given to the best defensive defenseman in the NHL.   It’s an “unofficial” honor that was first awarded  in the 2017-18 season to Drew Doughty, Ekholm the next season and Jaccob Slavin of the Hurricanes this season.

Ekholm has been a team leader for Nashville, serving as Alternate Captain and he is signed through next season at a reasonable Average Annual Value of $3.75 million.  Although he is 30, he has been extremely durable, missing only six games in the last six seasons.

The Nashville situation

So, why would Nashville even consider moving him?  After another disappointing season, the Predators and General Manager David Poile are determined to make changes to become relevant in the Central Division.  They are determined to go the retooling route instead of the rebuild, but they are in a division with a lot of teams improving while the Preds have been treading water. It was manifested by their four game loss to Arizona in the Stanley Cup Qualifier.

They have made some moves, buying out Kyle Turris and Steven Santini and signing free agent  defensemen Matt Benning and Mark Borowiecki (who would have looked good in a Ranger uniform).  They also traded  veteran Nick Bonino to Minnesota.

The Predators have decent defense depth led by Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. Highly touted prospect  Dante Fabbro made his debut and they added the two free agents.  Jarred Tinordi is on the roster and they could see prospect David Farance in the lineup when the NCAA season ends.

Still, while their major league roster is deep, they are a little light on defense prospects.

When it come to the salary cap, the Predators currently are $12,942,190 under the cap ceiling. Only the Kings and Devils have more cap room this off-season. They’ve got everybody under contract except RFA forward Luke Kunin who came from Minnesota in the Bonino deal.  It means the Predators are not desperate to shed cap space.

There are considerations.  Brendan Smith has a modified no movement clause and Nashville would have to be on his ten team trade list (or he would have to agree to the deal).   The additional of Ekholm means that they Rangers would have a decision to make when it comes to the Seattle expansion draft.

Despite the price and these considerations, the upside is the Rangers would get a perfect partner for Trouba.  It would keep Fox and DeAngelo on the right side and give K’Andre Miller a year or two to learn the pro game in Hartford. They would have no reason to keep Jack Johnson past the one year that he is signed for.  As an alternate captain in Nashville, the veteran blue liner would be a steadying influence on his younger teammates.

There’s no indication that Nashville is inclined to deal Ekholm, but if the Rangers are looking at making the playoffs this season, he could be an excellent addition. Although the Rangers’ brain trust has maintained that the rebuild is far from over, with Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad in their prime there is no doubt that the playoffs are a goal for the team this season.