Is there another level to Pavel Buchnevich’s game?

Pavel Buchnevich is entering the final season of his contract with the New York Rangers. Will it be his last act on Broadway?

Pavel Buchnevich has the tools. He can skate, dish the sauce, dangle, take and give a hit, and compete with the best of them on any given night. He’s shown flashes of what the New York Rangers suspected the Russian-born forward could be when they took him in the third round (75th overall) in the 2013 Entry Draft.

But while Buchnevich’s production has improved steadily since joining the Rangers from the Kontinental Hockey League four years ago, the question remains just how good he can be. What’s his ceiling? Is there a break-out season in him, one in which he blows away his NHL season averages of 15 goals, 22 assists, and 37 points?

If reports of the NHL’s plans to play a 50-70 game schedule starting next January come to fruition, he’ll have a shot at putting up monster numbers, especially if he remains on the right side with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome.

Playing with them last season, “Buch” notched career highs in assists (30), points (46), shots on goal (168), average time on ice (16:56), Corsi-For percentage (51.6), and hits (80). He also potted 16 goals, fifth most on the team, and four power play markers.

His play next season will impact his next deal and possibly whether he stays in New York. He’s set to become an arbitration eligible restricted free agent (RFA) after next season, the last of a two-year, $6.5 million contract he signed in July 2019.

If the 26-year-old plays poorly, or even close to his career averages, the Rangers might not be so eager to bring him back. The team has five other players eligible to become RFAs after next season (defenseman Ryan Lindgren, goalie Igor Shesterkin, and forwards Filip Chytil, Julien Gauthier, and Brett Howden).

Lindgren and Chytil would have to poop the bed for the Blueshirts not to bring them back. Chytil is four years younger than Buchnevich, while Lindgren brings the physicality the team’s already gone on record as stating needs to be a priority on the blueline. Shesterkin isn’t going anywhere.

As such, I can’t envision the Rangers keeping Buchnevich for much more than his current cap hit of $3.25 million per year unless he notches at least 30 goals and 50 points. And even those totals are conservative considering he’s already hit 21 goals and 46 points in a season.

Another consideration for the Rangers in deciding whether to spend for Buchnevich are the players who can become free agents following the 2021-22 season (which isn’t that far off). That group includes potential Unrestricted Free Agents Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome and RFAs Kaapo Kakko, Tony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox.

Yes, defensemen Brendan Smith and Jack Johnson, and forward Phillip Di Giuseppe, will become unrestricted free agents after next season, saving the Rangers a combined $6.2 million. But that money is likely to go toward keeping Zibanejad, DeAngelo, Kakko, and Fox.

Stay tuned.