Seven players the Rangers could lose to the Kraken
A look at who the New York Rangers may lose in the Seattle Expansion Draft and why.
With Free Agency more or less over, the Rangers can now set their sights on the upcoming season. With the team starting to form a concrete and competitive identity, there’s still one major event that will not only reshape the team but the league in its entirety. I’m not talking about the second or third wave of the pandemic, which appears to be inevitable at this point…
No, I’m talking about the 2020-21 real-life video game that is the Seattle Expansion Draft. An event that is so momentous that it will inevitably leave more than one beloved Ranger exposed for Seattle’s choosing.
Expansion draft rules abridged
As a friendly reminder:
Seattle must draft from all 30 teams (except Vegas).
Each team will be able to select one of two options:
- Protect seven forwards: three defensemen and one goalie
- Protect eight skaters (forwards or defensemen) and one goalie
All first and second-year professional players as well as unsigned draft choices will be exempt from the draft.
Any players with a “No Movement” clause in their contracts must be protected unless they waive the clause.
Every team MUST expose two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for the 2021-22 season and played in at least 40 NHL games the prior year or 70 NHL games in the two prior years, as well as a goaltender who is either under contract for 2021-22 or is an RFA.
Any player who is injured and has missed more than 60 consecutive games prior to the draft cannot be used to satisfy the three exposure requirements just described.
What that means for the Rangers
It almost goes without saying that the Rangers will choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie. With the strength of their defense, the other option doesn’t make sense. All things considered, the Rangers find themselves in a desirable situation for the Seattle Expansion Draft. Their most coveted prospects are all off the table; meaning you can go ahead and purchase your Igor Shesterkin Retro-reverse jersey without worry.
Shesterkin, Kaapo Kakko, Alex Lafrenière, Adam Fox, Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Morgan Barron, Matthew Robertson, Tarmo Reunanen, and Yegor Rykov are the majority of prospects that are untouchable. So, regardless, the future is safe.
Three words: No. Movement. Clause.
Four players: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Jacob Trouba. All four of them have to be protected because of the NMC. The Rangers would have protected all four of these players, anyway, but it is required. No one should be surprised or upset about this.
This means that there are up to seven additional protection slots available: four forwards, two defensemen, and one netminder. We can assume that New York will protect Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo, and Alexandar Georgiev. That’s an assumption, of course, but at this point in time, it’s probable.
That only leaves four additional slots (three forwards and one defenseman) for seven potential candidates. This means the Rangers are going to be using this season (whatever it ends up looking like) to thoroughly examine the players in contention. So, simply put, these seven players are essentially in tryouts.
The list that follows is a ranking from least likely to most likely taken by the Seattle Kraken. In reverse, it’s the players most likely to least likely to be protected by the Rangers.
#7 Pavel Buchnevich, 25, RW-LW
The first player to protect, which might seem obvious to readers, as of now, should be Buchnevich. He’s coming off his most productive season to date with 46 points in 68 games played. His Corsi and Fenwick were both a career-best at 51.6 and 52.6 respectfully and he sported a career-high .68 PPG as well. On paper, he should be a shoo-in for a slot.
However, Buchnevich will need to prove himself this season. Buchnevich has a tendency to disappear during games and to capitalize on his teammates’ level of play instead of his own. 30 assists seem meager when you play alongside the likes of Kreider, Zibanejad, and Panarin.
In addition, the Rangers now find themselves deep at wing with Panarin, Kreider, Kakko, Julien Gauthier, Vitali Kravtsov, and Lafrenière. If the front office thinks that Buchnevich has already reached his ceiling, or if they simply don’t want to spend money on the pending-RFA, who is eligible for arbitration mind you, the Rangers could opt-out on Buchnevich in order to protect players they feel have more upside.
There is one more possible outcome for Buchnevich. He could be traded. If the Rangers feel that Buchnevich has lost his spot to Kakko and Lafrenière already, they could trade Buchnevich for an asset or two that won’t need to be protected at the Expansion Draft. This way Jeff Gorton could use Buchnevich’s protection slot on someone else.
At the end of the day, Buchnevich’s future is in his own hands.
#6 Filip Chytil, 21, C-LW
Currently slotted as the third-line center, Chytil finds himself in a similar situation to Buchnevich. Another pending-RFA, Chytil needs to improve this season – period. Chytil impressed fans early on when he made the opening day roster ahead of Lias Andersson to start the 2017-18 season. However, that’s still his most impressive accomplishment to date. Yes, he’s impressive relative to his draft class and has shown flashes of tremendous skill, but that skill has been lackluster when you look at his advanced stats.
He’s also by far the worst faceoff man the Rangers have slotted down the middle with a career winning percentage of 38.4%. Not to be overly critical, but how are you supposed to play center when you can’t win the draw? There is a chance that Chytil replaces Fast on the wing alongside Zibanejad, but that’s going to be a competitive spot. Kakko, Lafrenière, Lemieux, and Gauthier will all be vying for a spot in the top-six.
It’s easy to say all of this as an Armchair GM, but the pressure is definitely on for Chytil. Brett Howden and Morgan Barron are just behind him in the depth chart and if Chytil’s not careful, he could be replaced. Another center found himself in the exact same conversation back in 2017. Granted that center was 26 and Chytil is still only 21, but he had similar, if not better, statistics and he’s no longer playing in the NHL…
Ryan Lindgren, 22, LD
Lindgren should be protected just off of positional need alone. Of the four left-shot defensemen currently on the roster, Lindgren is the only one worth keeping. No offense to Anthony Bitetto, Brendan Smith, or Jack Johnson, but none of them are a part of the Ranger’s long-term plans, and only Bitetto is signed beyond next season.
Lindgren has established himself as Fox’s defensive partner and after a complete season, Lindgren has proven to be a reliable defenseman who can be a “Marc Staal+” type of player. Lindgren needs to be wary of the sophomore slump and build upon his strong rookie campaign, but if Fox and he can continue to develop together, there’s no reason not to protect him, especially since he has to only be better than one other defenseman…
Also, a friendly reminder that if it weren’t for Rick Nash, the Rangers wouldn’t have Ryan Lindgren.
#4 Brendan Lemieux, 24, RW
The most aggressive player on the roster, Brendan Lemieux will be asked to fill the skates of Jesper Fast. Fast did a little bit of everything and did so while play top-six minutes. Lemieux needs to become the next Fast and fast – pun annoyingly obvious, apologies…
The Rangers bought in on Lemieux this off-season and he needs to prove that he’s more than just a fourth-line piece of sandpaper, but a threat at both ends of the ice. Lemieux already does a lot for the team in terms of his nightly exertion, but he needs to step up as a leader. It didn’t show up on the scorecard, but Lemieux brought the best out of his linemates. When he skated alongside Kakko, Kakko played a much stronger north-south game. If he does that, while improving his offensive production, Lemieux should walk away with one of the three forward slots.
Serious question – Is there a world where you protect Lemieux and not Buchnevich? That doesn’t seem logical… does it?
#3 Brett Howden, 22, C
Is your fourth-line center worth protecting? That’s what Gorton will be asking himself. Is your fourth-line center more valuable than a second-line winger or any of your defensemen for that matter? Could Howden replace your third-line center? If he can, then you don’t need Chytil, do you?
Because that’s what the conversation hinges on – Need. You want most, if not all, of these players, but which do you need? Do you need your current fourth-line center that badly?
Howden, Chytil, Buchnevich, and Lindgren are all pending-RFAs. Are you going to pay for all of them? Can you afford all of them? Igor Shesterkin is an RFA too and you can bet your bottom dollar that he’ll be paid first. Plus you would have to decide if you want to pay the next two people on this list.
Howden could simply find himself a Want and not a Need. In 2017 Oscar Lindberg was New York’s fourth-line center and he went unprotected and was picked by Vegas. When it comes to Howden, the Rangers may not need him.
#2 Julien Gauthier, 23, RW
Gauthier was given a 15 game opportunity to showcase his speed, size, and all-in-all athleticism. Though he’s still rough around the edges, fans were quick to recognize his potential. If Gauthier were to put together the pieces this season and find himself averaging more than just eight minutes a night, Gauthier could deserve consideration for protection. It could happen. He has the intangibles, now he just needs to put it all together.
In all reality, it’s far more likely that Gauthier is on the bottom three and exposed. If I’m Seattle, I would give Gauthier a hard look. Even if Gauthier only improves slightly, the Kraken could elect to invest in Gauthier’s potential over his production. They could take Gauthier, who is projected to start on the Ranger’s fourth-line and give him an opportunity to play a larger role. Gauthier will have a hard time cracking the Rangers top-nine and Seattle could give him that chance.
If Gauthier somehow manages a top-six role (it’s not impossible) this season, the Rangers could end up protecting him. However, it’s more likely that Gauthier remains in the bottom-six and the Rangers don’t protect Gauthier in hopes that Seattle passes on him. That would be a risk the Rangers could willing to take.
#1 Libor Hájek, 22, LD
Libor Hájek is the absolute wildcard on this list. Acquired in the poorly aging trade involving Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller, the former second round pick is in line for a potential promotion this season. With the Rangers lopsided on the back end, the left shot defenseman will have every opportunity to step up.
Hájek, who made the opening roster last season, only lost his roster spot last season due to injury. Prior to that, it wasn’t a surprise for Hájek to play over nineteen to twenty minutes a game. With Hájek, now fully recovered, he has the opportunity to build consistent rapport in the lineup. We’ve already mentioned that defensemen on the left side are the biggest concern for the Rangers. Losing Hájek for nothing will be nothing short of a gut-punch, but a the end of the day the question is this –
Is Hájek better than DeAngelo and Lindgren? If the answer is a definitive no, then Hájek will go unprotected.
Rewind: Vegas expansion draft
Three years ago, the New York Rangers lost Oscar Lindberg to the Golden Knights in the Vegas Expansion Draft. The Rangers protected Derek Stepan, Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Rick Nash, Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello, Marc Staal, Nick Holden, Ryan McDonagh, and Henrik Lundqvist.
It’s odd saying Nick Holden since he now plays for Vegas. What’s more surprising is that the Rangers protected him. Of all the aforementioned names, his appears to be the most out of place. No one thinks of Nick Holden as a Ranger. To be fair, Nick Holden had a heck of a season in New York leading up to the Expansion Draft.
In 80 games, the defenseman had 11 goals, 23 assists for 34 points. His advanced stats weren’t outstanding, but his offensive production in that one season was enough for the Rangers to protect him, while others like the likes of Michael Grabner, Brendan Smith, Antti Raanta, Jesper Fast, and the man that was eventually chosen, Lindberg went unprotected.
Granted the Rangers had to take a defenseman, but they still protected him. Holden only played one full season as a Ranger before he was traded at the following deadline to the Boston Bruins for Rob O’Gara and a third-round pick that would later turn into Joey Keane. Keane would be flipped two years later for Julien Gauthier.
The point of this anecdote down memory lane is that it only takes one season to solidify your place. Yes, the Rangers are by far a better team than they were in 2017. It’s absolutely wild that Holden was protected, but the Rangers needed to protect another defenseman and Holden fit the bill.
Anything could happen between now and whenever the Seattle Expansion Draft is.
If the expansion draft were today, I would expect the Rangers to protect Buchnevich, Lindgren, Lemieux, and Chytil. And I would expect Hajek to be taken by the Kraken. However, this season could change all of that. Hajek, Howden, and Gauthier are all in a position to alter their own fates. If Nick Holden could do it, so can they.
Or, if the Rangers really want to protect someone, but they’re out of slots, they could make a trade. Vegas accrued many an asset by agreeing to take one player over another. If the Rangers feel strongly about Howden, Hájek, and Gauthier, could they not offer Keith Kinkaid or Bitetto and two draft picks? Would that be worth it?
What do you think? Between these seven players, who would you protect? Comment below and try for yourself here.
More. An update from the KHL on Kravtsov & Rykov. light