Do long term contracts for young New York Rangers stars make sense?

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The New York Rangers have to decide how to handle the contracts for their many young stars

The New York Rangers are entering a world that they haven’t had to deal with before. They have a boatload of young stars who will be coming off Entry Level Contracts (ELC’s) and the team will have to decide what to do with them. While the salary cap will play a huge role in dictating their strategy, they will have some tough decisions to make.

The list of players who will be restricted free agents after the next three seasons is long.

2021-22 RFA’s

Igor Shesterkin
Ryan Lindgren
Filip Chytil
Julien Gauthier
Brett Howden
Libor Hajek
Pavel Buchnevich (arbitration eligible)

2022-23 RFA’s

Kaapo Kakko
Adam Fox
Tony DeAngelo (arbitration eligible)
Brendan Lemieux (arbitration eligible)

2022-24 RFA’s

Alexis Lafrenière
Morgan Barron
K’Andre Miller

With all of those players comes tough decisions. There will be several options for the Rangers to pursue. Here are the three options:

Long term, big money contracts.
Shorter term deals, for big money
Bridge deals

It’s important to keep in mind a few things. RFA’s don’t become arbitration eligible until they have four years of pro experience. A players doesn’t become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) until he turns 27 by June 30 or has played in the NHL for seven years.

1. Long term deals, big money

For several years this was the way to go in the NHL. Here are some of the big ones:

Vladimir Tarasenko, Blues 2015: Eight year deal worth $60 million
Connor McDavid , Oilers 2017: Eight years worth $100 million. (Highest paid player with an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $12.5 million).
Jack Eichel, Sabres 2017: Eight years worth $80 million, an AAV of $10 million.
Leon Draisaitl, Oilers 2017: Eight years worth $68 million, an AAV of $8.5 million.
Aaron Ekblad, Panthers 2017: Eight years worth $60 million, $7.5 million AAV.
Thomas Chabot, Senators 2019: Eight years worth $64 million, AAV of $8 million
Nico Hischier, Devils 2019 : Seven years worth $51 million
Kyle Connor, Jets 2019: Seven years worth $50 million.

Eight year contracts are only available when a player re-signs with his current team. Otherwise the maximum length is seven years.

The issue with a long term contract signed right out of an ELC is that these deals for the most part, even for eight years, will expire when a player is in his prime. It means that teams will have to make a tough decision about re-signing a player with a new contract that will extend until the player is in his mid to late thirties.

Case in point, McDavid will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2026 when he is all of 29 years old. Draisaitl will become a UFA at the same time at the ripe old age of 30.

2. Shorter deals, big money

Some players have been able to get teams to sign them to shorter term contracts. The best known deal is for Auston Matthews. He broke ground when he signed his first contract after his ELC. In February 2019, he signed a five year extension with an AAV of $11.634 million, making him the second highest paid player in the league at the time. Besides the fact that his salary is only $700k per year with the bulk of his pay in signing bonuses, it means he will hit UFA status at age 26.

Other players coming out of their ELC’s who have signed for five or six years include Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander and Sebastian Aho.

Those deals afford the teams some cap relief due to their longer term, but it also mean that players can become UFA’s at a younger age. Auston Matthews may be the second highest paid player in the league now, but the sky will be the limit when he becomes a UFA in 2024.

3. Bridge deals

Bridge deals allow a team to reward a player with higher compensation, but still retain control. Coming off an ELC, the player is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) without arbitration rights. They literally have no choice when it comes it comes to a contract and can be forced to sign for close to the league minimum.

However, a team can decide to give a player a bridge deal for a bigger raise and still have control over the player’s future as he will be an arbitration eligible RFA, but will still be a few years away from UFA status.

An example of a bridge deal for a star player would be Nikita Kucherov of Tampa. After his ELC, he signed for three years at under $5 million a year. When that deal expired at age 26 he then signed an eight year contract with an AAV of $9.5 million that will expire when he is turning 34.

Claude Giroux is another example. After his ELC he signed a three year deal worth $3.75 million a year. He hit pay dirt in his seventh season in the NHL, signing for eight years and $66 million. That deal will expire when he is 34.

Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

What about the Rangers?

Most of the Rangers listed above will be candidates for bridge deals or reasonably priced extensions. There are a few that will be worth considering for a long term,big money deal. The most likely candidates are Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko and Adam Fox.

Igor Shesterkin

Igor Shesterkin will be a candidate for a long term deal and if he lives up to his reputation, the Rangers should lock him up after next season for the maximum eight years. The biggest reason is he will be 25 in a few weeks and and eight year deal would take him to age 33.

The last thing the Blueshirts should do is a bridge deal. If so, they could end up in a situation similar to Tampa and Andrei Vasilevskiy. After his ELC, Tampa signed him to a three year bridge deal in 2016 for an AAV of $3.5 million.

After that deal expired, the Lightning signed him for eight years at an AAV of $9.5 million. If they had gone for a long term deal after his ELC, they may have been able to lock him up for eight years at a more reasonable price. Now, the LIghtning are in big cap trouble and it’s because of deals like this one.

So, could the Rangers get Shesterkin to sign an eight year deal for around a $6-8 million AAV? They should try and in five years that price could be a bargain.

Adam Fox

Fox is another Ranger for whom an eight year, big money deal makes sense. Fox is older and he will be 24 when he is up for renewal. That gives him two full seasons to prove that he is worth the investment, but if he continues to improve, it should be a no brainer to sign him for the full eight years and try to get him on a deal similar to what the Senators are paying Thomas Chabot ($8 million AAV).

That kind of deal would insure that Fox would be a Ranger through his prime and signing him that early could keep him from getting to UFA status via a bridge deal. As a UFA in his prime, Fox could easily be a defenseman worthy of the kind of money that is paid to blueliners like Roman Josi, Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson or even Erik Karlsson.

Kaapo Kakko

Kakko is an interesting case. He will have two years to become the player that was predicted when he was drafted second overall. David Quinn likens him to Andrei Svechnikov and if Kakko follows the Russian’s development path, he could be a potential superstar by year three. If he does, the Rangers will have a choice to make.

They can do a Nico Hischier or Kyle Connor type of deal that will keep him in New York for eight seasons. The issue is that he would be signing that deal when is 22 years old and still four years away from UFA status. A better option for Kakko could be a Kucherov type of deal. The could sign Kakko to a two or three year bridge deal that will bring back to the table when he is 24 of 25 and that’s when they could lock him in for the maximum eight years.

True, by that time he could be looking to get paid, but it would mean that he would be a Ranger until he is in his early thirties, guaranteed. If he is as good as expected, he would be worth it.

Alexis Lafrenière

It’s very early to be talking about a long term contract for a player who hasn’t played a game in New York, but if Lafrenière is as good as he is supposed to be, he could be worth Matthews or Eichel money. The question is when they get to that salary and again, due to his youth, a bridge deal makes sense.

He will be 22 when his ELC expires and an eight year contract will take him to age 30. The team would be well suited to signing him to a three year bridge deal for whatever it takes and then getting him under contract for the rest of his career at whatever the price.

It’s not that easy

Getting this resolved won’t be easy and a lot will depend on how these young players perform over the next few years. We can talk about what the team should do, but the players have their own plans and in every case it should be to get to unrestricted free agency as soon as possible.

You can be sure that players will be watching to see what happens with a player like Auston Matthews when he becomes a UFA in 2024. What the Hurricanes do with Andrei Svechnikov after this season will be of keen interest to Kaapo Kakko.

The Rangers will also learn a tough lesson when they have to deal with Mika Zibanejad. The Swede has become one of the best centers in the NHL and is getting paid at the bargain rate of $5.35 million per year. He will be a UFA after the 2021-22 season when he will be 29 years old. There is no doubt he will want long term and a lot of money, issues when it come to a player about to turn 30.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but just think if Jeff Gorton had signed him for the full eight seasons, even at a higher salary. ZIbanejad would be 32 and would still probably be a bargain, and it would make parting ways with him a lot easier if he wanted a long term deal.

The great news is that this is even a problem. The fact that the Rangers are facing the challenge of figuring out how to lock in their young stars for as long as possible at a manageable price is one that most NHL GM’s would welcome. Let’s see how Jeff Gorton does.

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Which Rangers kids should get long term contracts?