A preview of Alexis Lafrenière’s Rangers report card

The New York Rangers surprised nobody when they used the top pick to select Alexis Lafrenière, the only question is not if he will succeed in the NHL, only how quickly.

We continue our series of New York Rangers report cards.   We continue our look at the forwards, but with a twist as we look at Alexis Lafrenière.   We’ll look back at last season in junior hockey and focus on expectations for the coming season. 

Alexis Lafrenière: Rookie Season

There is no tougher professional league for a rookie than the NHL.  The demands of every hockey player are intense game after game, night after night.  It’s a sports cauldron that can very quickly weed out a young player who just does not have what it takes to make it in worlds toughest league.

To that end, history is littered with top picks who never made the cut.  And while the number one overall pick is generally a safe bet, there are the occasional complete failures.

We are all looking at you Nail Yakupov.

Yet, like most number one overall picks, Alexis Lafrenière has been touted as a sure thing, but what exactly can the New York Rangers expect from their newest prize? A quick look back at his final season of Juniors leaves plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Last season – QMJHL & World Juniors

If we were to grade Lafrenière’s final season in junior hockey, it would be an A+ and you can sum it up in one word, dominant.

The Numbers- Quebec Major Junior Hockey League

Games – 52
Goals – 35
Assists – 77
Points – 112
Plus/Minus  +41

The Numbers – World Juniors Championship

Games – 5
Goals – 4
Assists – 6
Points – 10
Plus/Minus  +3

The numbers from his season with Rimouski Oceanic  are just flat out impressive. Lafrenière was better than a 2-point per game player. He dominated the league during both his final two seasons in juniors and the accolades followed. He won the QMJHL MVP Award two years in a row.

Lafrenière was also selected as the CHL Most Valuable Player in his final two seasons.  Only one other player has done that…..Sid The Kid.

At the World Juniors he was not just part of the powerhouse Canadian team.

He was also selected as the MVP of the tournament despite missing two of the seven games with a knee injury.

So expectations are surely very high. But whatever expectations you may have must surely be tempered with several factors that are simply out of his control.

The Unique Season

First off, let us all agree that if there is in fact an NHL season, it will be a season like no other.  New divisions, new baseball-like series scheduling, fewer games, and a modified playoff format will make the 2021 more than just a hybrid, it will be almost unrecognizable.

So how can you make predictions, or set expectations for a rookie…albeit a high-touted one…when the season will be unlike any previous NHL season?

This season will be merciless for the New York Rangers.  The “New Division” that they will be playing in will be a gauntlet from game one until the very end.  As a fan, I’m already concerned about whether or not this Ranger team that got squashed by the Carolina Hurricanes in the qualifying round of the playoffs this past summer is tough enough to handle what’s coming.

Now imagine you are an NHL rookie, playing a compact schedule in the toughest division against some of the toughest players in the league.  And it’s not just that; the way games will be schedule in bunches means the physical play and the animosity will be geared way up, maybe to a playoff level before the season gets too old.

We have heard about how Alexis Lafrenière brings a certain toughness and likes to play a physical game, but is he ready for this?  Who on the Rangers is going to protect the kid from the likes of Tom Wilson, Ross Johnson and cheap shot artist Brad Marchand?  Brendan Lemieux can’t take on the responsibility night after night.  Wonder if there are any talks going on about how the Rangers can get Matt Martin to fit into the mix.

A Piece of the Puzzle

A major impact on all NHL rookies is where they immediately fall into the team’s line-up.

Only a very few are able to make an impact regardless of where they are drafted.  Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews and Sydney Crosby would have had outstanding rookie seasons with any team that was lucky enough to take them with the top pick.  But most other top picks are very much at the mercy of the team that surrounds them and the coach that chooses how to use them.

Alexis Lafrenière should be in a pretty good spot with Rangers, as opposed to say Jack Hughes with the Devils.  The Rangers have enough high end talent like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin so the pressure to perform for the sake of the team should not be an issue for the new kid.

The Rangers are also awash in very young talent, and the new kid is a North American so the transition to the the next level should not be complicated from a social standpoint either.

All in all, Alexis Lafrenière should feel very comfortable with the way this Ranger team is set-up to welcome him to the NHL.

The Coaching Conundrum

It’s one thing to enter the NHL and immediately play for an established NHL coach who has a resume of success.  It is a completely different scenario to play for a young coach who is in the middle of his first NHL contract.

David Quinn has been given a roster with elite NHL talent, combined with elite NHL potential. One must figure that he will feel the pressure to win even though he is still very much a young coach in the league.

One thing for certain is that he is going to be facing some extremely difficult decisions as this unique season begins and the first one may be the most difficult.  Where does he fit Alexis Lafrenière into the line-up?

If the Rangers do not make major strides forward this year Quinn could find himself in a perilous position, maybe even out of job. In that scenario, and with the shortened NHL season, could you blame him for sticking the prized rookie on the third line and relying on his top two lines to carry the team to the playoffs?

The problem here is very clear.  Top end talent needs to play with top end talent to be successful.  The list of elite NHL players who can elevate the play of everyone around them is a short one and it is even shorter for those that did it as rookies.

Of course Alexis Lafrenière could make life easy for David Quinn and just hit the ice looking like the prized prospect he is touted to be.  In that case, Quinn would have no choice but to put him on a top line, with his elite talent.  But if he come out looking more like Kappo Kakko did last year, then the decisions become that much harder.

Expectations

As far as scoring goes and making some sort of effort to predict his points total; at this point it’s all folly. We still don’t know the exact number of games that will be played, we have no idea if the season will be interrupted by COVID-19 once it starts, we have nothing but uncertainty.

Same goes for predicting  a grade for the prospect, considering the challenges it’s impossible.

Rangers fans should temper their expectations for Alexis Lafrenière from the very start.  At this point it looks like the kid will not even have one preseason game to get his skates even remotely damp.  David Quinn will just have to roll the dice and slot Lafrenière where he seems to be most comfortable based on practice and scrimmages.  The rest will just have to be figured out on the fly.

What Rangers fan can and should hope for is progress. Enjoy watching the rookie and hope to see signs that he is in fact a sensation in the making.  Watch how he handles the physical play, watch how he handles the grind, watch how he reacts to frustration. His attitude and temperament may be a much better sign of things to come than how many goals he scores.