What can we expect the rest of Artemi Panarin’s career?

Peter Stastny

Peter Stastny was a prolific scorer for the Quebec Nordiques for ten years, beginning in 1980.   He won the Calder Trophy, played in six All-Star Games and finished in the top ten in points six times.

Granted, Peter Stastny played in the NHL at a different time.  In the early 1980s there was more scoring with teams averaging almost an additional goal per game than the current NHL.  Indeed, the ten highest scoring years of the post-expansion era were from 1980 to 1990.

Using the “Similarity Scores” feature at hockeyreference.com, Peter Stastny is one player who compares to Panarin over the first four years of their careers.  The similarities don’t end there.

Both players joined the NHL when they were 24 years old after playing professionally for years abroad.   Stastny was a top scorer for Slovan Bratislava in the Czech League.  Panarin played for SKA in the KHL.

Over their first five years in the NHL, when you adjust their scores over an 82 games schedule with a league average of six goals per game, their numbers are incredibly similar.

                                      Goals      Assists      Points
Artemi Panarin            162         289             451
Peter Stastny              163          296             459

While Stastny was a center and Panarin is a left wing, both were or are adept at setting up goals, not just scoring them.  Now that we’ve established that they are similar players, the important thing to look at is what Stastny did as he got older.

The good news is that Stastny remained an effective offensive player, though his production did decline as he got older. We’ll look at his Goals per Game (GPG) and Points per Game (PPG) after he turned 29.

Age         GPG           PPG
29           0.54          1.61
30           0.38          1.20
31           0.61           1.46
32           0.49           1.18
33           0.39           0.99
34           0.23           0.78

At age 29, Stastny actually had his third best season in PPG and added his fifth best PPG season at age 31.  It’s important to note that he remained a point a game player until he was 34 years old. When Stastny was 33 years old he was traded from Quebec to the Devils for defenseman Craig Wolanin in a deal acknowledged to give him a chance to play for a Stanley Cup contender.

Peter Forsberg

Peter Forsberg is another player who compares to Panarin. He starred for the Colorado Avalanche for 11 years, winning two Stanley Cups in the process.  A Calder Trophy winner, in 2002-03 he won the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

A four time first team All-Star, in the five years before he turned 29 his adjusted stats are very similar to Panarin’s again using hockeyreference.com’s adjusted scoring.

                                      Goals      Assists      Points
Artemi Panarin            162         289             451
Peter Forsberg            136         318             454

While their numbers are similar, Forsberg’s career was hampered by numerous injuries.  He had to sit out the entire 2001-02 regular season after spleen surgery and to recover from various injuries.

Those injuries limited him to 39 games when he was 30,  60 games when he was 32 and 57 games when he was 33.

Age         GPG           PPG
29           0.39         1.41 (PPG led NHL)
30           0.46          1.41 (PPG led NHL)
32           0.32          1.25
33           0.23           0.96
34           0.11           1.56   (only 9 games)

As a result of deteriorating health the number of games Forsberg played dropped, but his level of play did not.  He also lost a prime season due to the 2004-05 lockout.  By the time he was 34 he was unable to play and had to retire, though he attempted  brief comeback two years later at age 37.

Sidney Crosby

There’s no doubt that Sidney Crosby has been the standard of comparison when it comes to elite players in the NHL.  He has two Hart Trophies, three Lindsay Awards and two Conn Smythe Trophies to go with his three Stanley Cups.  He has been a first or second team all-star eight times in his 13 years in the NHL.

It may seem like heresy to compare Artemi Panarin to Sidney Crosby, commonly acknowledged as one of the best, if not the best, players in the NHL.

However, if you look at the adjusted stats courtesy of hockeyreference.com’s adjusted scoring, their outputs over a comparable stretch of their careers are very similar. Again, the adjusted scoring is based on an 82 game season and an average of six goals scored per game.

                                       Goals      Assists      Points
Artemi Panarin            162         289             451
Sidney Crosby              153         300             453

Sid the Kid is not a kid anymore.  He turned 33 years old in August, so it is worth looking at how he has done in the years since he was 28.  The numbers are very good and he led the league in goals per game at age 29.  While his  numbers have dropped from his mid-twenties when he routinely average over 1.5 points per game, he is still an incredibly productive player.

Age         GPG           PPG
29          0.59          1.19  (GPG led NHL)
30           0.35           1.09
31           0.44           1.27
32           0.39           1.15

To add to the Crosby comparison, here’s how Panarin and Crosby did from ages 24 to 28 (though in different years).   For Crosby those years were from the 2011-12 season through 2015-16 while the years for Panarin are from his rookie season with Chicago (2015-16) until last season with the Rangers.

Note that Crosby led the league in points per game for three straight years.

Sidney  Crosby                               Artemi Panarin
 Age        GPG           PPG               Age        GPG        PPG
24          0.59          1.19               24          0.38       0.96
25          0.42         1.56               25         0.38        0.90
26          0.45          1.30               26         0.33        1.01
27          0.36          1.09               27         0.35        1.10
28          0.45          1.06               28         0.46        1.38

Sidney Crosby was much better at a younger age, but by the time both players had turned 27, Panarin had caught up to him. Crosby has been very consistent as he ages into his thirties, the question is if the last season was an aberration for Panarin or a sign of things to come.

Conclusions

It’s easy to compare players by looking at statistics.  Based on the numbers, Panarin compares well to Stastny, Forsberg and  Crosby and that bodes well for his future.   There are a lot of other issues that have to be taken into context.

Forsberg had debilitating injuries and lost a season to a work stoppage.  Crosby has had concussion issues and a serious neck injury.   Crosby has also played a lot of high intensity playoff games, something that Panarin has not had to deal with.  Panarin has also steered clear of serious injuries, missing only seven games in five years.  He has uncanny knack to avoid big hits and that should help him as he ages.

Modern hockey players are better conditioned and have the best medical attention available so it should be expected that they will be able to play well into their thirties.   The one thing  these four players have in common is that they were or are elite NHL players.

For most players, turning 30 is the beginning of the end and there is no doubt we could find players whose careers took a sharp downturn after they turned that age.  A lot depends on an individual’s style of play and intensity of competition, but when it comes to scoring and passing, it’s mostly vision and reflexes and that’s what makes an elite player elite.

If Panarin can stay healthy, there is no reason to believe that his game will deteriorate much  before the tail end of his contract.