What can we expect the rest of Artemi Panarin’s career?

Artemi Panarin will be star for the New York Rangers for many years to come

There was some concern when the New York Rangers signed Artemi Panarin to a seven-year, $81.5 million contract.  Besides being the second highest cap hit in the NHL, it also keeps him under contract through the 2025-26 season.  Panarin will be 34 years old when that season starts.

In his first year as a Ranger, the investment in Panarin paid off beyond expectations.  He was a finalist for the Hart Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award.  He finished third in scoring, second in assists and first in even strength points.  Most important, he made everyone he played with better and made the Rangers a fun team to watch.

It’s especially gratifying that Panarin turned down bigger offers to play for the Rangers.  He reportedly passed on richer contracts from the Islanders and Blue Jackets because he wanted the bright lights of Broadway.  If he continues to play the way he did in his first year, he could go down as the most successful free agent signing in franchise history.

The important question is what can we expect from Panarin as he ages?   As he gets into his thirties, will his play decline and make that $11.6 million cap hit a burden?  Let’s take a look at some players very similar to Panarin to see how they did.

Peter Stastny

Peter Stastny was a prolific scorer for the Quebec Nordiques for ten years, beginning in 1980.   He won the Calder Trophy, played in six All-Star Games and finished in the top ten in points six times.

Granted, Peter Stastny played in the NHL at a different time.  In the early 1980s there was more scoring with teams averaging almost an additional goal per game than the current NHL.  Indeed, the ten highest scoring years of the post-expansion era were from 1980 to 1990.

Using the “Similarity Scores” feature at hockeyreference.com, Peter Stastny is one player who compares to Panarin over the first four years of their careers.  The similarities don’t end there.

Both players joined the NHL when they were 24 years old after playing professionally for years abroad.   Stastny was a top scorer for Slovan Bratislava in the Czech League.  Panarin played for SKA in the KHL.

Over their first five years in the NHL, when you adjust their scores over an 82 games schedule with a league average of six goals per game, their numbers are incredibly similar.

                                      Goals      Assists      Points
Artemi Panarin            162         289             451
Peter Stastny              163          296             459

While Stastny was a center and Panarin is a left wing, both were or are adept at setting up goals, not just scoring them.  Now that we’ve established that they are similar players, the important thing to look at is what Stastny did as he got older.

The good news is that Stastny remained an effective offensive player, though his production did decline as he got older. We’ll look at his Goals per Game (GPG) and Points per Game (PPG) after he turned 29.

Age         GPG           PPG
29           0.54          1.61
30           0.38          1.20
31           0.61           1.46
32           0.49           1.18
33           0.39           0.99
34           0.23           0.78

At age 29, Stastny actually had his third best season in PPG and added his fifth best PPG season at age 31.  It’s important to note that he remained a point a game player until he was 34 years old. When Stastny was 33 years old he was traded from Quebec to the Devils for defenseman Craig Wolanin in a deal acknowledged to give him a chance to play for a Stanley Cup contender.

Peter Forsberg

Peter Forsberg is another player who compares to Panarin. He starred for the Colorado Avalanche for 11 years, winning two Stanley Cups in the process.  A Calder Trophy winner, in 2002-03 he won the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

A four time first team All-Star, in the five years before he turned 29 his adjusted stats are very similar to Panarin’s again using hockeyreference.com’s adjusted scoring.

                                      Goals      Assists      Points
Artemi Panarin            162         289             451
Peter Forsberg            136         318             454

While their numbers are similar, Forsberg’s career was hampered by numerous injuries.  He had to sit out the entire 2001-02 regular season after spleen surgery and to recover from various injuries.

Those injuries limited him to 39 games when he was 30,  60 games when he was 32 and 57 games when he was 33.

Age         GPG           PPG
29           0.39         1.41 (PPG led NHL)
30           0.46          1.41 (PPG led NHL)
32           0.32          1.25
33           0.23           0.96
34           0.11           1.56   (only 9 games)

As a result of deteriorating health the number of games Forsberg played dropped, but his level of play did not.  He also lost a prime season due to the 2004-05 lockout.  By the time he was 34 he was unable to play and had to retire, though he attempted  brief comeback two years later at age 37.