Tiptoeing around the goalie situation

The hockey universe believes that Igor Shesterkin is the New York Rangers number one goalie, don’t tell that to David Quinn

There’s no doubt that Igor Shesterkin is the number one goalie for the New York Rangers.  He was over the last two months of the 2019-20 season and in the Stanley Cup Qualifier.  He enters the new season as the top candidate to win the Calder Trophy.  His pedigree leaves no doubt that he is elite.  But don’t tell that to the Rangers’ brain trust.

In his remarks after practice on Tuesday, Quinn was asked specifically about his goaltending situation.  He was noncommittal in his answer.

Quinn said “In this season, every team in the league is going to have to rely on their two goalies. We’re fortunate because we feel we have two number one goalies. I’m not just saying that, Georgie’s had a good career so far, I think he’s ready to make the next step.   Shesty in a small sample has proven that he can be a really good goalie at this level so …we feel we have great goaltending depth and both of these guys are going to be contributors and we’re certainly going to lean on both of them in the course of the season.”

That was not an answer.  Based on last season, there is no way that Shesterkin and Georgiev are going to split the playing time.  Quinn acknowledged that, in looking at Shesterkin’s 12 games in New York, he is an unusual rookie. “We have to keep in mind he’s not a 22 year old kid who came out of college or junior hockey. He’s got a pro background.”

Georgiev vs. Shesterkin by the numbers

The truth is that Shesterkin turned 25 on December 30.  He has played 133 games in the KHL including playoff games.  In those games he had a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 1.70 with a Save Percentage (Sv%) of .933.   Those are pretty good numbers in the second best hockey league in the world.

Georgiev on the other hand had played 54 games in Finland’s Liiga and has played 77 NHL games with the Rangers.  At age 24, Georgiev has had about the same amount of pro experience as Shesterkin.

In 34 games last year for the Blueshirts, Georgiev had a 3.04 GAA and a .910 Sv%.   Shesterkin’s numbers in 13 games, including the Qualifier game, was a 2.56 GAA and a .929 Sv%.

Quinn did his best to defend Georgiev’s status. “Georgie’s had a good career so far for a young goalie.”   He pointed out how difficult a season it was for him. ” Last year was a difficult year for everybody, but Georgie in particular because of the way the whole thing evolved.  Obviously it was tough on Hank, we all know that…for a young goalie who had some success to be put in that situation wasn’t easy.”

Shesterkin also addressed the issue and made it clear what his goal is while acknowledging that he has to get there.  He said “It would be quite an experience to be the face of the franchise but so much has to be done to achieve that level of success.  I began working very hard in an attempt to not disappoint myself and the fans before last season…much work has to be done to get there.”

When asked about his expectations, he was succinct. “My expectations are to work even harder, to increase the win column for the team, to  increase the goaltending statistics that are possible and to become the number one goalie on the team.”

An ulterior motive?

There may be another reason that the Rangers will distribute playing time more evenly between Shesterkin and Georgiev.  Shesterkin has $2.85 million in performance bonuses built into his contract.   Here’s how that breaks down.  The bonus targets should be prorated  due to the shortening of the season however the proration only relates to what the player actually earns, not how it affects the salary cap.

A Level bonuses (worth $212k each)

• 1,800 minutes played (1,229 minutes prorated)
• GAA  (median GAA of all goalies with 25+ games played, 17 games prorated)
• SV % (median GAA of all goalies with 25+ games played, 17 games prorated)
• 20 Wins (30+ mins in a game to qualify, 14 wins prorated)
• Shutouts (median GAA of all goalies with 25+ games played, 17 games prorated)
• End-of Season All Rookie Team
• All Star Selection
• All Star MVP

B level bonuses (worth a maximum of $2 Million and negotiated between the team and player)

• Top five in balloting for Hart or Vezina Trophies
• Top three in balloting for the Lady Byng Trophy
• Winner of the Jennings Trophy
• Top three in balloting for the Calder Trophy
• Winner of the Conn Smythe Trophy
• 1st or 2nd team All-Star

The Rangers are in a serious situation regarding performance bonuses.  They have the possibility of $10,062,500 in performance bonuses to be paid out this season ($6,871,051 prorated).  While teams can exceed the salary cap by 7.5% any overages will hit the salary cap next season.

By easing Shesterkin’s workload (for all the right reasons) they might be able to lighten his performance bonus hit.  Both Alexis Lafrenière and Kaapo Kakko carry hefty performance bonuses and they are far more likely to hit their targets this season if they play anywhere near their expectations.

While the A Level bonuses are all achievable for Shesterkin even with  a lighter workload, if he splits his time with Georgiev, he may not get consideration for some of the league-wide awards like the Jennings, Vezina or Hart Trophies.   It’s not known how Shesterkin’s B Level performance bonuses are negotiated.  He could get the full amount if he hits just one of the targets or any awards could be incremental.

The reality

While salary cap issues are important, the overall goal is to win games.  In reality, David Quinn is hedging his bets and trying to lessen the expectations for Shesterkin while boosting the prospects for Georgiev.  If Shesterkin comes out of the box and plays as expected, there is no reason to believe that he won’t play two thirds of the games this season or more.  The Rangers were already the beneficiary of the lightest load of back-to-back games of any team in the NHL so that will automatically help their goaltending situation.

If Shesterkin plays like he did at the end of last season and he can stay healthy, he will be the number one goalie, no matter what anyone says in training camp. You can take that to the bank.