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Predicting the New York Rangers playoff hopes

By Jason Katinas

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 13: The New York Rangers face off against the Washington Capitals to start in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 13, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Heiman/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 13: The New York Rangers face off against the Washington Capitals to start in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 13, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Heiman/Getty Images) /
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Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates with his teammates after scoring a goal on James Reimer #47 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the second period in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Qualification Round.
Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates with his teammates after scoring a goal on James Reimer #47 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the second period in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Qualification Round. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Freestyle Photo/Getty Images) /

Will the New York Rangers make the playoffs?

The NHL season is upon us. Each of the league’s 31 teams has finished their shortened training camps, finalized their rosters and are now getting into some live game action. For the New York Rangers, their playoff hopes stand and fall not only with their new and improved roster, but how they match-up within the newly aligned East Division. The New York Rangers will start their season tonight with a rivalry game versus the New York Islanders.

Last seasons New York Rangers got off to a rough start. With a 17-15-4 record, their 38 points were eighth worst in the league through Christmas. However, from Christmas until the league suspended play, the Rangers posted a 20-13-1 record for 41 points and a .603 points percentage, good for fifth best in the league. This left the team with 79 points overall in 70 games played and in seventh place, though just two points out of a playoff spot.

The back half of the season was impressive and should provide fans with hope for this newly started season. But, the New York Rangers were not alone in their good fortune. The Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins all had a better points percentage than the Rangers in the second half. Even the New Jersey Devils, who would finish in last place in the division, in one less game played, were just one win from having a better second half record than the Rangers.

It should also be noted that the Rangers did not fare so well against the teams in the newly aligned East Division. Having played 20 games against the divisional teams, they finished with a 9-10-1 record. The Rangers would lose three games each versus the Bruins (one in overtime) and Flyers and only show dominance against the New York Islanders with a 3-1-0 record in four games played.

Taking this a step further, we reviewed the head to head records for each team within the division.  With each team having played an unequal number of head to head (H2H) games, each team’s points percentage was converted into expected points (Xpts) over a 56 game season. Unfortunately, this exercise leaves the Rangers with a sixth place finish.

Team                                H2H (2019-20)       2021

Boston Bruins                       14-2-5                          88 Xpts

Philadelphia Flyers             13-5-3                         77 Xpts

New York Islanders             12-6-3                        72 Xpts

Washington Capitals          11-10-2                      59 Xpts

Pittsburgh Penguins           8-8-3                          56 Xpts

New York Rangers              9-10-1                        53 Xpts

New Jersey Devils               8-11-2                        48 Xpts

Buffalo Sabres                     6-9-1                           46 Xpts

Fortunately for New York Rangers fans this exercise works as an on paper, all things being equal equation. Not factor in are off season improvements and/or losses, coaching changes, player growth and/or regression, injuries or the inevitable COVID-19 related interruptions.

The impact of adding Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller to the Rangers roster cannot be quantified. Nor can a full season from Igor Shesterkin or the hoped for growth from Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Fox and Kappo Kaako. Conversely though, for every potential plus there is a potential minus. It must be taken into consideration that much of the Rangers successes last year were buoyed by career high seasons from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Tony DeAngelo, seasons that cannot realistically be expected to be replicated.

The rest of the division too has unquantifiable factors to be looked at. What impact will Peter Laviolette and Zdeno Chara have on the Capitals. How will the Bruins fare without Chara, or Torey Krug on the backend and David Patstrnak and Brad Marchand mending from off season surgeries. The Penguins have moved on from an underperforming Matt Murray, but also lost Jacques Martin from their bench.

The Flyers are now seeing the emergence of Carter Hart as a top NHL goalie and are bringing back prized prospect Nolan Patrick after a year missed to illness. The Islanders lost a promising defenseman in Devon Toews but were able to re-sign Matt Barzal, but were a team that was kept afloat by a tremendous start last season. The Sabres have added Taylor Hall and Eric Staal to help solidify their top six forward group and the Devils just lost Corey Crawford to retirement.

light. Related Story. Realistic Expectations for the 2021 New York Rangers

Each of these variables, and more, are enough to help lift one team while drowning another in ways that statistical analysis cannot fathom. How a team reacts to these adversities will determine their placements in the standings. All said, when factoring in each realistic expectation and reviewing the division pragmatically, this is how this writer believes the division will shape up.

  1. Flyers
  2. Capitals
  3.  Penguins
  4. Bruins
  5. Rangers
  6. Islanders
  7. Sabres
  8.  Devils

As fans we hope for the best, but should be prepared for the worst. The New York Rangers have an extremely bright future, but the gap between the perennial playoff contenders and the still rebuilding Rangers is just too large to overcome this season. The team will show much growth and improvement in this shortened 2021 season. And much like last season, they should keep playoff hopes alive deep into the season, but will ultimately fall just short.

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