Would acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois benefit or hurt the New York Rangers?
New York Rangers General Manager Jeff Gorton is a busy man. On top of steering the Rangers through a rebuild and keeping the team salary cap compliant, he also must stay in communication with the league’s 31 other general managers. And part of that communication is to kick the tires regarding possible trades that would benefit the Blueshirts.
News broke several days ago that Pierre-Luc Dubois of the Columbus Blue Jackets has formally requested a trade. Dubois is just 22 years old and is already a two time 20-goal scorer with a career high of 61 points scored. He is a big bodied center who is not shy about throwing his weight around, recording more than 100 hits in a season twice.
That he is a highly sought after trade piece is a not in question, but should the Rangers attempt to acquire him? Dubois would be an instant improvement to the the Rangers corps at center and would slot in as the second line center behind Mika Zibanejad. Adding him to the roster would solidify the top six and improve the bottom six depth by displacing Ryan Strome to the third line.
Dubois has been both a good power play and playoff performer. Though, he has not been used as a penalty killer and his career face-off winning percentage of 44.1% (1.8% lower than Strome’s) would not be of help to a Rangers team that struggles at the dot. Further Dubois’ contract, while an affordable $5 million in annual average salary (AAV), was signed for only two seasons. When this contract expires at the end of the 2021-22 season, Dubois will be an arbitration eligible restricted free agent (RFA).
The New York Rangers salary cap issues are well known and adding Dubois would only complicate the matter. Following this season, the Rangers have seven players headed into RFA status. Brett Howden, Julien Gauthier, Filip Chytil, Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek will all graduate from their entry level contacts (ELC), but will not be eligible for arbitration. However, both Igor Shesterkin and Pavel Buchnevich will be and both will be looking for significant raises over their current salaries.
Following the 2021-22 season, along with Dubois’ expiring contract, the Rangers will have both Zibanejad and Strome headed to unrestricted free agency (UFA), with expectations that Zibanejad may earn a contract upwards of $10 million AAV. Additionally, four players will reach RFA status. Adam Fox and Kaapo Kakko will graduate from their ELC’s, but neither will be eligible for arbitration. Brendan Lemieux and Tony DeAngelo will have arbitration available to them when their current deals expire.
The question of costs to acquire Dubois do not stop at the salary cap complications he would cause, but also must be viewed in terms of assets required in trade. A 22 year old, big bodied center with 60 plus point potential will not come cheap and may in fact be too expensive for the Rangers. The New York Rangers are in an enviable situation where they have an abundance of assets to use in trade. But to land Dubois would cost some names that we have all become very familiar with.
Additionally, specific to the Rangers and any other Metropolitan division team, the costs for Dubois will be greater. Sure, the Rangers and Blue Jackets have made several trades in the past, most notably the swaps that included Rick Nash and Marian Gaborik. Those trades however occurred with Columbus aligned in the Western Conference. No team wants to face their former star four or more times, or worse in the playoffs. So, trading, especially within one’s division will drive the costs skyward.
In essence the Rangers will have to over pay more to make this trade a reality. The Blue Jackets may be pressed to make this trade happen, especially with Coach John Torterella calling out his center, but they will not simply sell of Dubois for penny on the dollar. The costs, to even start the conversation will be an established player, a young NHL talent and picks and prospects.
A Rangers friendly trade option may look like this.
More likely however, the Columbus Blue Jackets will want a proposal more resembling this.
This package is steep and is more than likely too costly for the Rangers to accept. However, this package, or something similar to it would be what is required to this trade done. Recall back to the Jack Eichel to the Rangers trade rumors in which it was noted that trade talks started with Alexis Lafreniere along with other substantial players. While Dubois is a tier or two below Eichel, the sentiment is the same, if you want him, you’re going to have to pay for him.
In all, it is a nice fantasy to imagine the Rangers acquiring a stud center like Dubois, or, another NHL superstar like Eichel. The truth is that it would disrupt the path that the rebuild is on. The Rangers idea of the Nash and Gaborik tandem was short lived in part because of the costs it took to acquire Nash. A Dubois trade in turn may cost the Rangers the opportunity to retain Zibanejad, leaving them again with only one upper tier center.
The reality is, some fantasies are better left as fantasies, and this one is cost prohibitive.