The Rangers’ early goal disease, is it real?

Nothing frustrates fans of the New York Rangers more than when the team gives up an early goal.  Case in point, opening night this season, with the Stanley Cup waiting and hopes for an undefeated season, the Rangers allow a power play goal to Brock Nelson just 2:33 into the game.  It was all downhill from there and they lost 4-0.

Tuesday night in New Jersey, it was Travis Zajac who stuck a dagger in the Rangers’ heart with a goal 32 seconds after the first puck drop.

The cries of “not again” were heard throughout Rangersland.  “Why us, why do they always give up early goals? Why aren’t they prepared?  David Quinn should be fired!”

So, is it true?  Are the New York Rangers particularly susceptible to the early goal blues?   We decided to do a deep dive into David Quinn’s tenure as Rangers coach to see if it is indeed an affliction.

2021 season

Okay, this may be small sample size, but twice in three games seems to be a trend.  If the Penguins come out and score in the first three minutes Friday night, it will be time to worry.  Let’s just say that they are off to a bad start, literally.

2019-20 season

In the abbreviated 70 game season, the Rangers gave up a goal in the first three minutes ten times.   Yup, once every seven games.  14% of the games they played.   Furthermore, they lost eight of those ten games.

One reason it sticks in the memories of Ranger fans is a stretch of games in November 2019 when they allowed early goals in four out of five games, all on the road.  2:39 into a 9-3 shellacking by Tampa. 2:05 into a loss to Florida.  57 seconds into a loss in Ottawa. 2:03 into a game in Montreal that they came back to win.

The worst was on New Year’ Eve in Edmonton when James Neal scored 11 seconds in.  If you looked away you missed it.

Sometimes an early goal is a good thing because it means the Rangers have a lot of time to catch up. That happened last  January 13 when Jordan Eberle silenced the Garden faithful with a goal just 18 seconds into the match.  The Blueshirts shook that off and scored the next five goals to win 6-2.

The good news is when they started playing quality hockey last season, they stopped giving up early goals, allowing a goal in the first three minutes of a game only once in their last 25 matches.

So, that was last year.  How about David Quinn’s first year?

2018-19 season

Rangers fans won’t believe it, but they were better two years ago.  In a full 82 game season, they allowed a goal in the first three minutes only eight times. Of course, in those eight games they went 1-6-1.  The good news is that had only one of those soul crushing instant goals.

In November at Madison Square Garden it was Tomas Tatar who scored just 23 seconds into the game. The Rangers came back to beat Montreal despite falling behind 3-1, winning when Neal Pionk scored on his highlight reel end-to-end rush.

So, is it a disease?

20 times in 155 games under David Quinn. The number of times the Rangers have been waylaid by a goal in the first three minutes of a game.  Is 13% a trend?   Is it a condemnation of the team’s preparation?  Probably not, but there’s more.

What the Rangers did

Get ready to be surprised.  In 2018-19, David Quinn’ squad actually scored in the first three minutes of a game nine times, one more than was scored against them.  Yes, you heard that right.  Unfortunately, they couldn’t hold on to that lead, finishing with a 4-2-3 record in those games.

In 2019-20, while they allowed the first goal 10 times,  they actually scored in the first three minutes 12 times. Yes, they did it more than it was done to them…for the second straight year.  In 2019-20 they won seven of those 12 games, losing four in regulation and one in overtime.

And yes, they have already done it once this season. Saturday night it was Buchnevich, scoring 2:12 in as the Rangers went on to win 5-0.

And Ranger fans have erased from their memory the Stanley Cup Qualifier when Chris Kreider scored just 12 seconds into the third game against Carolina.  That sure helped.

In conclusion

So, after extensive research, it has been determined that in the last two seasons, the New York Rangers are not afflicted with that dreaded early goal-itis disease.  Sure, allowing an early goal is a sign that a team may not be prepared, but more often than not it’s puck luck, a bad bounce or in the case of Tuesday’s game, an awful defensive change.

The feeling of deja vu Ranger fans may feel could be a result of the last few years of the Alain Vigneault tenure, but we haven’t gone through those numbers yet.

At any rate, their percentage for the 2020-21 season is 67% and that needs to go down. If the past two seasons are any indication, it will.

On thing is notable. For some teams, scoring first is very  important.  In 2019-20, the Rangers scored first in 40 of 70 games, but could win only 62% of those games, 23rd best in the NHL.   Compare that to the Hurricanes who won 84% of the  games in which they scored first, or the Penguins who won 78% of the time.

Winning when you score first is a sure recipe for success and it’s an area the Rangers need to improve in.

It’s worth taking a look at the other dreaded hockey disease, late goal-itis.   That’s an affliction that causes teams to give up goals in the last three minutes of a game.  That may be more important.   We’ll be back with that soon.