Why Pavel Buchnevich’s success could mean trading Kakko or Kravtsov

If you look into your New York Rangers crystal ball, you will see Jeff Gorton pulling the trigger on a deal for a bona fide first line center.  He will try to get someone like Jack Eichel, Aleksander Barkov, Dylan Larkin or Elias Pettersson.  It will be expensive and the Rangers will have to give up quality to get quality. And that’s where Pavel Buchnevich comes in.

Last year, the Rangers placed  a bet on Buchnevich, signing the Restricted Free Agent to a two year, $6.5 million bridge deal and avoiding arbitration.  The Russian winger is in the last year of that contract and the way he is playing, he is earning a long term contract for decent money.

His excellent play is also making it a sure thing that if a top center is available, it will be Kaapo Kakko or Vitali Kravtsov who will be traded. The last thing the Rangers need is a situation on the right side that mirrors their issue on left wing..

The Blueshirts are stuck with their three left wingers who all deserve top six playing time.  Artemi Panarin isn’t going anywhere and has  full No Movement Clause in his contract that expires in 2026.  Chris Kreider is signed for one additional year, until 2027 and he also has a full No Movement Clause.  Of course, Alexis Lafrenière is going nowhere.

That means the team is stuck with a top six left winger playing on the third lline.  That makes no sense strategically and more important in this salary cap era, financially.

With Buchnevich, Kakko and Kravtsov, they will be in the same situation as soon as the KHL season ends.   In hockey, as in life, three’s a crowd. The good news is if the Rangers believe that Buchnevich has a long term future as a right winger on the first or second line, they can afford to trade either Kakko or Kravtsov.

There Rangers have a number of players they are wedded to long term, mostly for financial reasons.  Count Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider on that list. Any other untouchables are young players who are projected to become NHL stars.  Buchnevich’s season is knocking Kakko and Kravtsov off the untouchable list  The only young player on that list now is Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller is rapidly playing his way onto it.

What would it take?

Ranger fans tend to live in a fantasy world where they think the Rangers will be able to get a Jack Eichel quality center for Ryan Strome and a decent defense prospect.   Dream on.   It will take at least two or more of the Blueshirts’ top young players or prospects and that means a trading partner will have to pick between Kravtsov or Kakko and between Nils Lundkvist, Matthew Robertson or Zac Jones.  A high draft pick would also have to be included.

If there is no top center available in a trade, the Rangers still have options.  They could sign an aging Mika Zibanejad though that grows more and more unlikely with each passing day.   Filip Chytil could continue to improve and blossom into that top center.  They could also move a winger to center with the most likely candidate Vitali Kravtsov who has played some center in his career.

They could also look to acquire a young center prospect, dangling their surplus of stud defensemen in exchange for a potential number one center.  The Los Angeles Kings are overloaded with young centers in Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte,  Rasmus Kupari, Gabe Vilardi  and Tyler Madden.  Could they be persuaded to part with one of them for Buchnevich, Kravtsov or Kakko  along with a stud defense prospect?

The number of top tier centers is short and the list of available ones is even shorter.  A second tier center like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sean Monahan, Anthony Cirelli, Bo Horvat  or Tomas Hertl will still command a heavy price from the Rangers who will be forced to overpay.

And with the season he is having, Buchnevich is making it possible for them to overpay for the top tier center they need so badly.