Feb 4, 2021; New York, NY, USA; The New York Rangers celebrate after a second period goal by defenseman Anthony Bitetto (22) against the Washington Capitals at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Bennett/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports
Editor’s note: Revised to include late change to the schedule
After this story was published the NHL announced that the Rangers February 16 game with Philadelphia has been moved to February 14 and they will make up the postponed game with the Devils on February 16.
That means the three day break is gone with the team having only one two-day break in the month.
The New York Rangers have played their first ten games of the season and they finished that segment at NHL .500. The finished with a 4-4-2 record and are tied with the Sabres and Devils in fifth place with 10 points, though the Devils have a game in hand. Their season got off to a rocky start, but they finished strong.
The current standings
1. Boston 11 GP 8-1-2 18 points 2. Philadelphia 12 GP 7-3-2 16 points 3. Washington 11 GP 6-2-3 15 points 4. Pittsburgh 10 GP 5-4-1 11 points 5. New Jersey 9 GP 4-3-2 10 points —Rangers 10 GP 4-4-2 10 points —Buffalo 10 GP 4-4-2 10 points 8. Islanders 9 GP 3-4-2 8 points
It’s time to look at the next 10 game sequence and make some projections about how the Blueshirts will do. They will finish the 10 games all in the month of February, playing the ten games in 21 days.
If home ice matters, they will play six games at home and four on the road. They have only one back-to-back set, playing the Capitals twice over a weekend in DC. The schedule is not overloaded as they are off for three days once and two days as well. The rest of the time they play every other day.
In these days of Divisional pandemic-driven play, they don’t see Pittsburgh, New Jersey of Buffalo, but they do play the Bruins and Flyers for the first time and have rematches with the Islanders and Capitals. Here is the schedule.
The schedule
The sequence starts with a Garden match up with the Islanders. The Rangers split their first two games with the Fishsticks, getting shut out, then shutting them out. The Isles got off to a great start, winning three of their first four, but have faded since then and have dropped into last place. They are winless in their last five going into Saturday’s game with the Penguins. They are a victim of the pandemic with their last two games with the Sabres postponed with the Buffalo team hammered by COVID.
The big, bad Bruins come to town for a pair, leading the East Division with a 8-1-2 record. They have lost only one game in regulation this season and have gone to overtime in six of their 11 games. Their two games prior to playing the Blueshirts were supposed to be with the Sabres, but they were cancelled. They will be well rested when they come to New York, with four days off.
The Rangers then have three days off before they have a home-and-away with the Flyers, currently in second place in the Division. They have 16 points on a 7-3-2 record. The only thing keeping them from running away with the Division are the Boston Bruins who have beaten the Flyers twice in regulation and twice in overtime.
The Rangers then stay on the road with a Saturday-Sunday series in Washington. Hopefully the Capitals will have forgotten about the Rangers’ big win and Brendan Lemieux’s late shenanigans. By the time the Rangers play Washington on February 20, the Caps should have Evgney Kuznetsov and Ilya Samsonov back from the COVID protocol. Both missed the game with the Rangers on Thursday.
The Rangers have two more days off before ending their four game road trip with another game in Philadelphia. They conclude the 10 game sequence with two games at the Garden against Boston.
That means they play the top three teams in the East in nine of the ten games, a formidable stretch of games. It’s hard to believe, but the “softest” game on the schedule is the first versus the Islanders.
In a nutshell, the next ten games will tell us a lot about the team and could make or break the season.
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Expectations
Despite the fantastic win over the Capitals, the Rangers are still facing challenges this season and have been hit by some costly injuries. The good news is that they have gotten unexpected contributions from players like K’Andre Miller, Tony Bitetto, Kevin Rooney and Colin Blackwell.
They have also won three of four without Mika Zibanejad at his best and Alexis Lafreniere still finding hi NHL footing. One positive is that their goaltenders, especially Igor Shesterkin, have finally begun to play the way they were supposed to.
Still, we need to be realistic about the next ten games and a .500 record wouldn’t be an overly optimistic prediction. They could even lose six of the ten, but if they can get to overtime in the losses, it would be an improvement over the first ten games. Four wins out of 10 would be okay if they could get to overtime in four of the losses, giving them 12 points in the 10 game sequence.
12 points out of a possible 20 doesn’t seem like a lot, but coming in nine games against the elite of the East it would set the Rangers up for their next five games against New Jersey, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.
Late addition: Due to the schedule change, the Rangers will play eight of the next ten games against the top three teams. Adding a road game with Devils to the mix, and subtracting one home game versus Boston, we will add one point to our projection for the next ten games, looking at the Blueshirts getting 13 out of the next 20 possible points.
How to make the playoffs
With the playoffs the goal for the Rangers, they need to finish in the top four in the division. The way things are shaking out, it looks like Boston, Philadelphia and Washington will slug it out for the top three slots and the Rangers will be battling the Islanders, Buffalo, New Jersey and Pittsburgh for the final playoff spot.
Here’s how the Rangers’ playoff competition has done against the big three.
Buffalo 2-3-1 (5 of 12 points) New Jersey 1-2-1 (3 of 8 points) Islanders 1-2-2 (4 of 10 points) Pittsburgh 2-3-1 (5 of 12 points)
There’s not a record north of .500 in that group. If the Rangers can do better over the next ten games and then make some hay against their primary playoff rivals, they could position themselves for a real playoff run.
So, the projection for the next ten games is 12 points. It’s not an ambitious goal, but considering the opposition, it’s realistic. Anything better and this team could be the real thing.
Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the NHL with the North Division the only one that hasn’t seen postponements. The Sabres and Devils are shut down due to outbreaks and the Rangers have been very fortunate to avoid anything more than a scare to Kaapo kakko.
So far the postponements are Buffalo (4 games), Boston (2 games), New Jersey (3 games), Islanders (2 games) and Pittsburgh (2 games) while Philadelphia and Washington have played all of their games. The Blueshirts have seen only one game postponed, Saturday’s match against New Jersey.
That all could change in a heartbeat, not just for New York, but for any of their competition. They Rangers may not even get to play those ten games in February, but we can certainly hope. What it does mean is that some teams will have to play a lot of games in a short period of time at the end of the season and that could play a big role in who makes the postseason.
