Expectations for the next ten games

Expectations

Despite the fantastic win over the Capitals, the Rangers are still facing challenges this season and have been hit by some costly injuries.  The good news is that they have gotten unexpected contributions from players like K’Andre Miller, Tony Bitetto, Kevin Rooney and Colin Blackwell.

They have also won three of four without Mika Zibanejad at his best and Alexis Lafreniere still finding hi NHL footing.  One positive is that their goaltenders, especially Igor Shesterkin, have finally begun to play the way they were supposed to.

Still, we need to be realistic about the next ten games and a .500 record wouldn’t be an overly optimistic prediction.  They could even lose six of the ten, but if they can get to overtime in the losses, it would be an improvement over the first ten games.   Four wins out of 10 would be okay if they could get to overtime in four of the losses, giving them 12 points in the 10 game sequence.

12 points out of a possible 20 doesn’t seem like a lot, but coming in nine games against the elite of the East it would set the Rangers up for their next five games against New Jersey, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

Late addition: Due to the schedule change, the Rangers will play eight of the next ten games against the top three teams.  Adding a road game with Devils to the mix, and subtracting one home game versus Boston, we will add one point to our projection for the next ten games, looking at the Blueshirts getting 13 out of the next 20 possible points.

How to make the playoffs

With the playoffs the goal for the Rangers, they need to finish in the top four in the division. The way things are shaking out, it looks like Boston, Philadelphia and Washington will slug it out for the top three slots and the Rangers will be battling the Islanders, Buffalo, New Jersey and Pittsburgh for the final playoff spot.

Here’s how the Rangers’ playoff competition has done against the big three.

Buffalo 2-3-1 (5 of 12 points)
New Jersey  1-2-1 (3 of 8 points)
Islanders  1-2-2  (4 of 10 points)
Pittsburgh 2-3-1 (5 of 12 points)

There’s not a record north of .500 in that group.  If the Rangers can do better over the next ten games and then make some hay against their primary playoff rivals, they could position themselves for a real playoff run.

So, the projection for the next ten games is 12 points. It’s not an ambitious goal, but considering the opposition, it’s realistic.  Anything better and this team could be the real thing.

Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the NHL with the North Division the only one that hasn’t seen postponements.   The Sabres and Devils are shut down due to outbreaks and the Rangers have been very fortunate to avoid anything more than a scare to Kaapo kakko.

So far the postponements are Buffalo (4 games), Boston (2 games), New Jersey (3 games), Islanders (2 games) and Pittsburgh (2 games) while Philadelphia and Washington have played all of their games. The Blueshirts have seen only one game postponed, Saturday’s match against New Jersey.

That all could change in a heartbeat, not just for New York, but for any of their competition.  They Rangers may not even get to play those ten games in February, but we can certainly hope.  What it does mean is that some teams will have to play a lot of games in a short period of time at the end of the season and that could play a big role in who makes the postseason.