How bad is the power play? A look at the numbers

The New York Rangers power play is not working.  They have scored two goals in their last 23 chances and have been shut out on the power play in five of the last seven games. Considering that five of the seven games lost by the Rangers in regulation or overtime were one goal games, power play issues are playing a huge role in the team’s sub-.500 record.  So, how bad is it?

The numbers

The Rangers have played 75:22 minutes with the man advantage, 12th most in the NHL   They have had 44 power plays, 11th most in the league.   The fact that the Rangers are getting power plays is good news.

When the Rangers are on the power play, their possession numbers are scintillating.  Their Corsi For percentage is 93.10%, good for third best in the NHL.  For observers who are frustrating by their overpassing while on the PP, it’s not necessarily so. The Blueshirts have taken 76 shots on the power play, seventh most in the league.

The problem is scoring. They have only six power play goals on 76 shots.  That’s a 7.9% shooting percentage.  Compare that to the Toronto Maple Leafs with the best  record in the league.  They have taken 82 shots and scored 15 times, 18.3% success rate.   Add nine goals to the Rangers’ total this year and you have the difference between first place and last place.

Quality of shots

So, if the Rangers are taking  a lot of shots and not scoring, they must be taking low percentage shots, right?  Not so.  Of the 76 shots they have taken, 30 of them are considered high danger shots.  That’s the seventh most of any team in the NHL. The problem is that of those 30 high danger shots, they have scored on only three of them. That’s a 10% success rate.

Compare that to the four teams in the East currently in a playoff position.  The Capitals convert on 56% of their high danger shots.  The Flyers and Islanders convert on 40% of their high danger shots. The Bruins convert on 37% .

It’s not just the top four teams.  Every team in the East scores at a better rate than the Rangers on their high danger shots on the power play.

Ice time

One thing is clear watching the Rangers. The first power play unit of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome and Adam Fox, is getting most of the power play time.  How much?

Panarin leads with 49:37 minutes followed by Mika Zibanejad with 48:18 and Adam Fox with 47:09.   That trio has been on the ice for all six of the Blueshirts’ power play goals this season.

Panarin, Zibanejad and Fox have been on the ice for 26 of the 30 high danger shots on the power play with Kreider on for 22 of them.  Those four have been on the ice  for all three goals scored on those shots.   It’s clear that they are getting the shots and they are the ones not converting.

One disturbing conclusion is that while the top power play unit is getting over 60% of the power play time, the second unit has attempted only three high danger shots while getting about 40% of the power play time.

The second unit has been changed quite a bit, but the players with the most ice time include Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, Pavel Buchnevich, Jacob  Trouba and until recently, Tony DeAngelo.  That group has had a handful of scoring chances with even fewer high danger chances and they have yet to score a power play goal.

Jacob Trouba spoke about the second power play unit and pointed out the biggest issue, the fact that they are never able to get set up in the offensive zone.  They usually get on the ice on the fly and have to gain entry into the offensive zone and then get set up.  That can take 20 seconds leaving them with virtually no time to get off a high quality shot.

Trouba pointed out that they rarely start with a faceoff in the offensive zone and the numbers bear him out. In 11 games, Trouba has had six offensive zone starts on the power play, compared to 25 for Adam Fox. Kaapo Kakko has had six offensive zone starts, compared to 20 for Panarin and Zibanejad.

What it means

The New York Rangers have accomplished something very unusual this season. They are shortening two minute power plays by about 30 seconds.  The first unit stays on the ice for as long as 90 seconds and as a result the second unit has no time to get going.   The numbers prove it with the first unit scoring all six power play goals and the second unit not scoring and barely getting any shots.

While that works if the first unit is scoring on the power play, if it isn’t, it effectively reduces the time with the man advantage substantially.  It means that the second unit will never be able to gel unless they get more time so that they can actually set up in the offensive zone and run plays.

What to do

After practice David Quinn hinted at some changes in the power play.  The question is what will he do?   There are several options.

1. Leave it alone – From the numbers the first unit is firing on all cylinders, but they are just not finishing.  With the talent in that group, just leave them alone and they will start to score, sooner or later.  Scoring on only 10% of their high danger chances can’t continue.
   
2. Reduce the ice time for the first unit – With Zibanejad slumping badly, the obvious solution would be to reduce the amount of time the first unit is on the ice, even though they are still getting a lot of high quality shots.   The problem is that the first unit can actually control play and stay in the offensive zone for over a minute, so there may be no opportunity for them to get off the ice.  Again, if they are scoring, no problem, if not, futility.
3. Start the second unit first – Forcibly reduce the ice time for the top unit by giving the second unit first crack at the power play.  They will get an offensive zone start and a chance to actually set up in the zone and run an offense with structure.
4. Change the players on both units –  Quinn is considering putting K’Andre Miller on the second unit.  If that group still gets only 30 seconds of frenetic ice time it won’t make a difference.   He could swap out Zibanejad or Strome for Lafreniere or Kakko.  He could replace Kreider with another net front presence like Lemieux or Di Giuseppe.   The goal should be to do something to jump start the first unit and get them on a scoring streak.

Quinn has taken some heat (including here at Blue Line Station) for sticking with the first power play unit while he changes the other forward lines at the drop of a hat.  If you look at the numbers and from the eye test, that first unit is getting a lot of chances and controlling play while on the power play. Leaving them alone makes sense as a strategy because they have to start scoring at some point, right?

Unfortunately for Quinn and the Rangers, they have not started scoring and it is costing them points.  The good news is that they are still getting high danger shots and they should start to go in.  Until they do, it will just be more frustration.  In the meantime, it probably makes the most sense to tweak it and not make wholesale changes.  We’ll see what they to.

Thanks to naturalstattrick.com for most of the data.