Will we see Nils Lundkvist this season?

When the New York Rangers drafted Nils Lundkvist in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft in 2018 there were some who thought that making him the 28th overall was a reach.  Most pre-draft rankings had him going early to mid second round.  In just two and half years he has proven that the team was prescient when they made him third pick in the first round.  He is now one of the top prospects who hasn’t made the leap to the NHL yet.

Of all the players in the New York Rangers organization, Lundkvist is the one most affected by the Tony DeAngelo situation.  As long as DeAngelo was in a Ranger uniform, he was an immovable object standing in the way of Lundkvist playing for the Rangers or even signing with the team.  Now he is out of the picture and that means there is a slim chance that we could see him as soon as this postseason.

The likelihood is that he will sign his Entry Level Contract (ELC) after his Swedish season is over and make his debut in North America in the fall though there is one scenario that could see him signing and playing this season, but not in the NHL.

Lundkvist’s status

The Rangers need to sign Lundkvist to an Entry Level Contract by June 1, 2022 or he becomes a free agent.  The fear, most often brought up by Larry Brooks in the New York Post, was that with Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox and DeAngelo on the right side of the Rangers defense corps for the foreseeable future, there was no incentive for Lundkvist to sign.  The fear was that he could continue to play in Sweden, let his Rangers rights expire and he would be free to go anywhere.

That’s why the DeAngelo situation, as ugly as it is, has a positive side for the Rangers.   With DeAngelo’s departure, Lundkvist jumps up to third place on the depth chart of right shot blueliners.  It’s still a crowded depth chart with 2020 first rounder Braden Schneider opening eyes with his play.  But based on Lundkvist’s performance in the Swedish Hockey League, he is ready.

His career in Sweden

Lundkvist had excellent statistics as a junior player in Sweden and in his draft year he played 28 games in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) as a 17-year-old.  In his first full season in the SHL at age 18 he posted decent numbers scoring three goals and 10 points in 41 games.

Last season he came into his own.  In 45 games he totaled 11 goals and 31 points,  becoming the first defenseman in SHL history to tally 25 or more points before turning 20.  He was the quarterback of the power play for Luleå ,scoring five power play goals.  He also starred at the World Junior Championships with eight points in seven games.

Those were better numbers than achieved by Swedish defense stars Erik Karlsson or Rasmus Dahlin at the same age.

There were some questions about his size.  When he was drafted he was 5’11”, 174 pounds and this season he has put on some weight, now at 187 pounds.  That’s about the same size as Adam Fox.

So far this season he has posted similar numbers with 10 goals and 24 points in 43 games.  He leads all SHL defenders with 10 goals and five power play goals.    He is second on the team in average ice time, playing 20:58 minutes per game.

Lundkvist was selected to play for Team Sweden in the Beijer Hockey Games tournament in Malmo, Sweden.  Sweden finished second to Russia with a 2-0-1 record.

While Lundkvist tallied only one power play goal in the three game tournament, what is significant was his ice time.  In the game against Russia Lundkvist played over 28 minutes and followed that with almost 25 minutes in an overtime win over the Czech Republic. Remember, thi wasn’t a junior tournament, this was for the Swedish national team.

All of this has solidified Lundkvist’s standing as a top prospect.  In the latest NHL rankings, Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) placed Lundkvist as the second best prospect on the Rangers after Alexis Lafrenière.

Wheeler had this to say about him, “He does a good job breaking up passes with his timing, escaping pressure with his feet, and making small plays on outlets and bumps to move the puck up ice. The development of his shot has really taken his offensive ceiling to another level, though, complementing his footwork to give him legitimate power play flair.”

When could we see him?

The SHL regular season ends on April 1.  That is followed by a full playoff schedule, much like the Stanley Cup Playoffs with Lundkvist’s team eligible to play as many as three best-of-seven rounds.  The last possible date for the SHL FInals to end would be Saturday, May 15.

The SHL season mirrors the dates of the NHL season.  That means that no matter what happens, Lundkvist would not be able to come to North America until after the Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun.   If the Rangers make the playoffs and go deep and Luleå is eliminated in the first round, there’s a slim possibility that Lundkvist could sign his Entry Level Contract and make his debut during the playoffs, much like Chris Kreider did in 2012.

With pending free agency just one year away, if there is any question of Lundkvist signing with the Rangers, they may want to bring him over this season for a playoff run with the Rangers or Hartford.  The Wolf Pack may be  a real option.

While the Stanley Cup Playoffs may be a question mark, the AHL regular season ends on May 6 so he could play in the Calder Cup playoffs for the Wolf Pack if they make the postseason. It would mean signing him to his three year ELC and burning off a year of it this spring, but if it guaranteed  getting his name on a contract, it may be worth it.

The team has made an effort to make him part of the organization. He has played in the Traverse City prospects tournament and last spring he did an online Q&A with fans.   You can be sure that one of Jeff Gorton’s priorities is to get him under contract so that he can join the Rangers as soon as possible.