The season depends on the next 10 games, projecting games 31-40

Throughout this season, Blue Line Station will be taking a look at the New York Rangers 2021 season in ten game increments.  After the first ten games we began projecting expected point totals.  Unfortunately, the Blueshirts have come up short both time.

1. Games 1-10:   10 points
2. Games 11-20:  9 points (10 points predicted)
3. Games 21-30:  11 points (14 points predicted)

What’s gone wrong?  Are we overly optimistic about this team or did they just miss because of bad luck?  Or were we waylaid by unavoidable acts of the hockey gods?   Let’s look at the last ten games.

The last ten games (#21-30)

The bottom line is the Rangers did exactly as expected, except for the two games against the Penguins.  They swept the Devils, split their games with Boston, took three of four points from Philadelphia and split a two game road trip with the Capitals.

If the Rangers had been able to win one of those two games with the Penguins and if they had been able to take the Capitals to OT in the game Friday night, they would have had the 14 points we optimistically predicted.  There were two reasons why the Rangers missed that target.

First, Artemi Panarin didn’t come back to the team until the sixth game of this ten game sequence.  Could he have made the difference in the three games that they lost without him? Absolutely.

The other factor that we couldn’t predict was the injury to Igor Shesterkin.  He sustained his “minor” groin strain in the first game of the sequence, the 6-1 win over New Jersey and has not played since.   Furthermore, no one would have thought that Alexandar Georgiev would have imploded in two games.

In fact, if you had been told that Igor Shesterkin would miss nine of the ten games and Panarin would miss half of the games a prediction of eight points might have been generous. They still ended up with 11 based on the strength of their effort over the last five games.

So, despite missing the projection, there is reason for optimism.

Expectations

To call the next ten games absolutely crucial  to the Rangers’ playoff hopes is an understatement.  They begin with a game against the Sabres who have lost 13 games in a row and are in a tailspin.

They then travel to Philadelphia for two games.  You can be sure that the Flyers will be determined to avenge the 9-0 humiliation, but they have won only four of their last 11 games and needed extra time for two of the wins. They are ripe to be beaten.

The Rangers then have a road-home two game set against the Capitals and we have seen how the Rangers play versus Washington.

Two more games in Buffalo and then the Rangers play their last two games of the season against Pittsburgh, at the Garden.  They conclude the ten games with a visit to the Nassau Coliseum.

That means in the next ten games they play teams they have every reason to beat in half of the games.   If they can exact some revenge against the Penguins and split their two games with the Capitals, is that too much to ask?

The prediction

The Rangers arguably have played their best this season over the last five games.  They shut out Boston.  They lost in OT to the Flyers in a game that Philadelphia scored two power play goals when they were without Adam Fox or Pavel Buchnevich, their best penalty killers.  The destroyed the Flyers 9-0 and played their two best defensive games of the year and, but for Alex Ovechkin, would have swept the Capitals.

If they can keep this up they are in a position to go on a roll.  We are going to be positive again and predict 15 points out of a possible 20.  It means they have to sweep Buffalo and Philadelphia and get some hard earned points against Washington, Pittsburgh and the Islanders.

Can they do it?  They  need to get Shesterkin back. They need to stay healthy.  They need to continue to play that shutdown defensive style. They need to get the power play going.  They must win the games that they should win.

After they play game number 40  they have one more game before the April12 trade deadline.  Due to COVID considerations, it is very likely that teams will be active in the trade market long before the deadline.  If the Blueshirts can get off to a good start in these ten games, it will determine whether they will be buyers or sellers come April.

Do you think the Rangers can get 15 points in their next ten games?  Weigh in with your predictions below.