Can the New York Rangers make a run for the playoffs?

The New York Rangers have won three in a row, five of their last seven and have gained points in six of those contests. Taking seven of a possible 10 points from the Philadelphia Flyers has vaulted them into fifth place. They sit just three points behind the Boston Bruins in the East Division standings for fourth place. Suddenly the playoffs are in reach.

Can the New York Rangers make the playoffs?

The short answer is yes, the New York Rangers can make the playoffs. The long answer is far more complicated. The truth is that the answer is not based on fan excitement and emotion, but  that it is both mathematical and pragmatic.  The truth is also that the answer is yes, but they will need help.

While the Rangers are on a roll, three of their last five wins have been won against the basement dwelling Buffalo Sabres and a Flyers team in a free fall. Boston is a good team, but have been trading wins and losses for more than a month. The win against the Washington Capitals team was impressive and showcased how this team can up their game, but it was still just one game.

For the Rangers to have any true hopes of making it to the postseason, they will need to extend this recent streak through to the end of the season. While it is possible that Bruins could go into a full blown tail spin, it is not something that can be counted upon for the Rangers to be successful. A simple look at last year helps illustrate this point.

After 70 games played the New York Rangers had 79 points and were in seventh place. The New York Islanders were in sixth, but falling like a stone. The Columbus Blue Jackets sat in fifth place with a two point lead at 81 points in the same number of games played. The Carolina Hurricanes were in fourth place, also with 81 points, but had two games in hand.

Had the season completed its 82 game schedule, the Rangers were not likely to have made the playoff’s. The Blue Jackets were a .500 team from February on, losing in overtime seven times over that span. Playing at .500 for the final 12 games, the Jackets would have attained 93 points. The Rangers would have needed to gain 14 points in their last 12 games, at a minimum to have caught Columbus. Could they have? sure. Would the have? Going 5-4-1 in the previous 10 makes it unlikely.

How does this translate to this year?

The Rangers sit three points behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot, with the Bruins having played three fewer games. That puts the Rangers in a tight spot. The Bruins have been playing .500 hockey since their 1-0 victory over the Rangers on Feb.12, going 7-7-3 during that span and not losing more than two games in a row. If Boston continues to simply tread water at .500, the Rangers will need to record 31 points over their next 24 games.

The good news is that replicating their current level of play would get the job done. The New York Rangers have played to a .654% points percentage during the month of March, going 8-4-1 over their last 13 games. That is also the bad news. This stretch accounts for the best results the team has had all year and only equals the minimum requirement to catch Boston. And that is only if the Bruins do not also raise their game.

Are the playoffs a possibility? Absolutely, but not likely.