Expectations for the East Division and its impact on the playoff picture

The New York Rangers season has taken a positive step.  A revived offense combined with an impressive defense and penalty kill, combined with the return of the team’s number one goalie has got everyone excited.

We find ourselves in the unusual position of rooting for the Devils or Islanders to beat the teams the Rangers need to pass. Blue Line Station’s Jason Katinas took at look at what it will take for the Rangers to get into the postseason.  While not overly optimistic, he demonstrated that there is a path to the playoffs.

Now. let’s take a look at the schedules facing the Rangers’ rivals for the playoffs.  It gives a better pictures of what the Blueshirts are up against and it will us to know who we really need to root against.    Here’s a hint.  It’s not Boston.

Who to root against

The Rangers are tied for fifth place with the Flyers and  have drawn within  three points of fourth place Boston.  Here are the current standings:

1-  Islanders          34   22-8-4     48 points
2- Washington     32   21-7-4     46 points
3- Pittsburgh        34   21-11-2   44 points
4- Boston              29    16-8-5     37 points
5- Rangers            32   15-13-4   34 points
—Philadelphia    32   15-13-4    34 points
7- New Jersey       31  12-15-4   28 points
8- Buffalo              32    6-22-4    16 points

A  crucial number to look at is games in hand.  Boston has played only 29 games, the fewest of any team in the East.   While the Blueshirts are three points behind the Bruins, if they win those three games in hand,  the Rangers would find themselves nine points out of a playoff spot.

More important is who the teams above the Rangers have to play and where. That’s where the Bruins have the biggest advantage over every other team in the East.  They have seven games left with the Buffalo Sabres and four games with the New Jersey Devils.

The Buffalo Sabres have  become the X factor in the East Division.  They are in a tailspin, losing 15 games in a row and they honestly look like they are incapable of winning.  That is the Rangers’  biggest problem.    The two teams closest to the Rangers are the Bruins and the Penguins . The Bruins play the Sabres seven times and the Penguins play them four times.

Here’s a team by team breakdown of the remaining schedule. It’s impossible to know what teams will do, but we based our predictions on home versus away schedule, the strength of the competition and their records so far this season.  It’s pure guesswork, but it does provide a baseline for the rest of the season.

Boston Bruins

27 games remaining, two with the Rangers in Boston.

Buffalo – 7 games, 4 home-3 road  – Prediction:  12 of 14 points
New Jersey –  4 games, 2  home-2 road  – Prediction: 5 of 8 points
Islanders –  3 games, 3 home – Prediction: 4 of 6 points
Philadelphia – 3 games, 1 home-2 road – Prediction: 4 of 6 points
Pittsburgh – 4 games, 2 home-2 road – Prediction: 4 of 8 points
Washington – 4 games, 2 home, 2 road  – Prediction:  4 of 8 points

So, not including the two remaining games with the Rangers, our projection is the Bruins will take home 33 of 50 points.

New York Islanders

22 games remaining, five with the Rangers, four at Nassau Coliseum and one at MSG.

Boston – 3 games, 3 road – Prediction:  2 of 6 points
Buffalo – 2 games, 2 road – Prediction:  3 of 4 points
New Jersey – 2 games, 2 home – Prediction:  4 of 4 points
Philadelphia – 3 games, 2 home, 1 road – Prediction: 4 of 6 points
Pittsburgh – 2 games, 2 road – Prediction:  2 of 4 points
Washington – 5 games, 4 home, 1 road – Prediction: 6 of 10 points

So, not including their five remaining games with the Rangers, our projection is the Islanders take home  21 of 34 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins

22 games remaining, two with the Rangers both at MSG

Boston – 4 games, 2 home, 2 road – Prediction: 4 of 8 points
Buffalo – 4 games, 2 home, 2 road – Prediction: 6 of 8 points
New Jersey – 5 games, 3 home, 2 road – Prediction: 7 of 10 points
Islanders – 2 games, 2 home – Prediction: 2 of 4 points
Philadelphia – 3 games, 1 home, 2 road- Prediction: 4 of 6 points
Washington – 2 games, 2 road- Prediction:  1 of 4 points

So, not including the two remaining games with the Rangers, our projection is that the Penguins take home 24 of 40 points.

Washington Capitals

24 games remaining, four with the Rangers, one at home and  three at MSG

Boston – 4 games, 2 home, 2 road  – Prediction:  4 of 8 points
Buffalo – 2 games, 1  home, 1 road – Prediction:  4 of 4 points
New Jersey – 3 games, 1 home, 2 road – Prediction: 4 of 6 points
Islanders – 5 games, 1 home, 4 road – Prediction: 4 of 10 points
Philadelphia – 4 games, 3 home, 1 road- Prediction: 5 of 8 points
Pittsburgh – 2 games, 2 home – Prediction::  3 of 4 points

So, not including the four remaining games with the Rangers, our projection is that the Capitals  take home 24 of 40 points.

Philadelphia Flyers

24 games remaining including three with the Rangers, one at Wells Fargo Arena and two at MSG

Boston – 3 games, 2 home-1  road – Prediction: 2 of 6 points
Buffalo -3 games, 1 home, 2 road – Prediction: 5 of 6 points
New Jersey – 5 games, 1 home, 4 road – Prediction: 6 of 10 points
Islanders – 3 games, 1 home, 2 road – Prediction: 2  of 6 points
Pittsburgh – 3 games, 2 home, 1 road- Prediction: 2 of 6 points
Washington  – 4 games, 1 home, 3 road- Prediction: 3 of 8 points

So, not including the three remaining games with the Rangers, our projection is that the Flyers take home 20 of 42 points.

Keeping the results of the games with the Rangers out of the picture, here is how the teams would end up based on these projections:

1. Washington 70 points
2. Boston  70 points
3. Islanders   69 points
4. Pittsburgh 68 points
5. Philadelphia   54 points

What the Rangers are facing

The Rangers have 24 games left this season.  Here’s what the Rangers have coming up

Boston: 2 games left, 2 road – Prediction 2 of 4 points
Islanders:  5 games left,  1 home, 4 road – Prediction 6 of 10 points
Pittsburgh:  2 games left, 2 home – Prediction 3 of 4 points
Washington:  4 games left, 3 home, 1 road – Prediction 5 of 8 points
Philadelphia:  3 games left, 2 home, 1 road – Prediction 6 of 6 points
Buffalo: 4 games left, 2 home, 2 road – Prediction 8 of 8 points
New Jersey:  4 games left,  2 home, 2 road.  – Prediction 4 of 8 points

Let’s be bold and predict that they will win eight of their remaining 13 remaining games versus Boston, Islanders, Pittsburgh and  Washington.  They will then win nine of their remaining 11 games versus the Flyers, Sabres and Devils.   That’s 17 wins in their last 24 games for 34 points.

Based on the current standings and out predictions, this is what the East looks like including the Rangers:

1. Washington 73 points
2. Islanders   73 points
3. Boston  72 points
4. Pittsburgh 69 points
5. Rangers 68 points
6. Philadelphia   54 points

That record and the Rangers would finish one point behind the Penguins and out of the playoffs.

Can they do it?

Though the Bruins are currently 11 points out of first place, our projections have them contending for first or second, strictly on the basis that the Bruins play the Sabres and Devils 11 times, 41% of their remaining schedule.

Can the Rangers  win more than eight of 13 games against the elite of the east with seven of those games on the road?    Can the Rangers win 11 of 13 games against the Flyers, Devils and Sabres?   That’s more realistic and they could actually dream about sweeping them.

It’s a tall order,  but they hold their destiny in their hands.  We cannot count on another East Division team going into  tailspin like the Flyers.  The Rangers need to win and keep winning.  And when they lose, it must be in overtime.  Every game is a playoff game for the next six weeks.

If they don’t play with that attitude, we’ll be talking about the draft lottery and selling at the deadline in just two and a half weeks.

Moving forward

We’ll keep track of the results as we inch our way through this season and provide some updates, especially if the Rangers keep winning.  It’ s lot of numbers and a lot of speculation, but it does present a realistic a picture of what to look for ahead.